Elements Mafia 59 - by RootRanger

[rob77dp]

@mathman #1 I find it very odd that you're tunneling super hard on me when other players have voted on Physsion, then swapped to Calin later on in the lynch phase. I swapped votes because it occurred to me that...
#2 IP has access to Propaganda (for sure, since Physs said it was stolen from him)/potentially Gin (do we have anything solid that confirms this? I haven't had anything stolen from me.), which allows them to swing votes very easily, especially if used in unison.
Additionally, I was defending Calin, because as rob had stated earlier (as well as myself!), #3 he had some BH sentiments to his posts, and as I said, just seemed to get caught up in the mix of things. Obviously, this will make me look bad on the flip, but can't y'all have some faith?

@rob *eats bread*

This will all make sense.

1. It's OK at this stage to post a few times focusing on certain players one finds of certain interest/note.
2. "for sure"? -- we only have Phys' word on it, while most of us like to trust Phys a good BH view/stance would be still only "possible" he is honest here and that the final propaganda is in IP hands... you seem quite certain which is only something a select few could possibly know for sure (IP, mostly).
3. Sentiments, sure -- but the sentiments didn't jive with his voting in general and the lynch confirms the sentiments were false (this is only a slight knock on you since obviously only IP and somewhat duped BH - like myself a little - would have sided with it)

[Solaris]

1. Fair, just spread the love a bit. I'm trying to do assignments.
2. Shoddy wording. It is fairly good odds that Physsion is BH and not lying though, yes? The two are mutually inclusive, as a BH would have 0 reason to lie.
3. Did I know how the lynch would flip before the lynch ended? Nope. Looking back (very quickly, is quanta in 24h night phases), I do see the IP-ish voting. My bad for not catching that at first, usually I'm pretty attentive 

*eats more bread.*

[Zawadx]

Which vote change? /me has no idea what's going on

[skyironsword]

Solaris is slightly more suspicious than an octopus in Arizona.

As a result, we will lynch him tomorrow. This is not debatable.

[rob77dp]

First off, let's not conclusively give away ANY surefire next-day lynch targets... IP have 1 Propaganda available to them (Phys' stolen one if Phys is honest with Jenkar dying with one earlier) and at least 1 Victory Gin (if not 2 of one or both!) so letting them know when/who to Gin/Prop is a bad idea -- rather make them guess like good BH'ers we are.

**Updating my list as follows**
If I had to guess, I think most or all of IP are in this group:

Cal - flipped IP on Day 6 lynch
{3 of these 4, by my estimation}
kinky
Zawadx
Cal
Ginyu
Solaris


Formatted:
BH!
myself

BH+
sky
kdz

BH
dawn

n
math
gino

n-
Physsion

IP
Solaris***

IP+
Ginyu
Zawadx
kinky

IP!
Calindu

Changes explained:
* sky -- started vote train confidently on an IP... if any player here would bus a fellow IP it might be sky however I'm a fan of her play this game so far... solidifies her into my 'lock Brotherhood' (not confirmed per se) status
* kdz -- ISO of kdz's posts aligns him quite well with myself, all dead BH to date, and sky... solidifying him into my 'basically a lock Brotherhood' category
+ dawn -- read more closely how other players I value highly as Brotherhood-leans addressed dawn and his difficulty connecting to vote/comment/etc.
+/- Ginyu -- up for finally posting something, no credit for non-vote type post, and downgrade back to un-moved-from-previous-IP+ status due to IoA of post (information over analysis). Ginyu, can you give more analysis and less 'plain information'?
- Zawadx -- This vote swap late smacks of IP hot potato wagon hopping... that is, gotta get off the dwindling wagon on Phys that had Cal/Sol/kinky/Zawad on it near the end - IP would know if Cal is as-good-as-dead (AGAD?) and going to flip IP why wait until then to vote the wagon (it could be as simple as timing I guess, but it still comes across to me as a bit scummy at least)? Zawadx, can you explain a little this vote change and the nature of it?
* kinky -- no change in status but give similar consideration to kinky's vote change here as we are to Zawadx's vote change such that is seems a lot like an IP knowing Cal will flip IP and kinky doesn't want to get caught on the wrong wagon.
I'm not going to mention specific targets now but I trust those that live on (if I should get NK'd) to be able to parse my list for how to shake it down, eh?

***ISO on Solaris forthcoming... I feel math did a decent job of this and I provided comment to math's take:

Spoiler for My response post quote:

Ok, so Calin was found to be mafia. I agree.

Who voted on saving him or on the other people throughout the day:
Calins vote started here by sky A main reason I'm so bullish on sky right now, among other written reasons.

Sola tried to defend Calin by accusing sky of "fishy" voting here The beginning of my serious consideration for Sol in my suspicions list.

Calin tied voting 2-2 by voting on Physs here to try to save himself. (or was he tying the votes knowing Physs would die over him) Face value in the moment it made sense he was just saving his bacon... but saving bacon in the face of scum-hunting can be a scumtell too... turns out it was in this case.

Rob pushed Physs over Calin 3-2 here.  (But isn't rob a confirmed civ, so maybe Physs needs looking into tomorrow. Due to his inactivity so much until just lately I'm a bit shy about reading Phys strongly but his reactivation  post(s) seem kosher to me.) then followed  by a few other because rob seems confirmed civ and lets play follow the leader. I'm trying not to just lock in on a vote the whole day as confirmed BH I can do a bit of hopping in a very benign manner that forces IP to make decisions we can analyze later.

And now we hit the tipping point from where 5 votes on Physs and 2 on Calin to a quick reverse of 3 votes Physs to 4 votes Calin with most people playing follow the leader with rob.
With Cal flipping IP, this exchange noted by math warms my BH heart quite a bit.

Also here Sola tries to defend Calin over Physs seeming scummy.
Math, you're hitting my Sol points for me... get ready to reply Sol so we can vet it.

Here I mention to take a good look at Sola depending on the Physs/Calin outcome. I still feel that since Calin rolled town scum (FTFY) Sola should be looked at, was he defending Calin? Refer to my read-shift on Sol.

Only here does Sola finally switch over his vote from Physs to Calin when there is more than 6 people already voting for Calin. THis could be an attempt to not get left on the Phys wagon when Cal flips IP.


TL:DR

The main thing I'm looking at is that Sola is seeming extremely scummy based on the way he acted trying to protect Calin until the end when Calin was a confirmed vote wagon.

My takes on math's rundown/takes...

I made some edits -- thanks for pointing out my flawed bit of logic Zawadx.

[rob77dp]

Solaris is slightly more suspicious than an octopus in Arizona.

As a result, we will lynch him tomorrow. This is not debatable.

I'm much less certain, sky.  Consider a world where Sol has Propaganda (halving voting total) and another IP uses Gin:
3 IP; 7 BH
Target A gets 7 votes from BH
'A' uses Propaganda to cut it to 3 voting total
Tie vote is lost by the BH member.
>NK<
Target A gets 5 votes from BH
IP uses Gin to boost to 7 voting power of IP
BH is lynched 7-to-5
>NK<
Target A gets 3 votes from BH
IP has 3 votes
oh... game ends in favor of IP.
*sadpanda

This is the crux of my argument against pre-determining the next day's lynch at this point in the game... but sky going to sky I guess.
(Please point out flaws in my logic above if you find them.)

*sidenote* bed time now... yay

[Solaris]

Solaris is slightly more suspicious than an octopus in Arizona.

As a result, we will lynch him tomorrow. This is not debatable.

Aquarium.


I'm not sure you realize this, but you're actually being detrimental to town, with an attitude like this. Quit being bullheaded and try and work together with the team if you want to win. Or not, if you're IP. Pretty binary choice

[skyironsword]

We are definitely lynching Solaris. I have reason to believe he does not have an item.

Will explain later.

[Solaris]

We are definitely lynching Solaris. I have reason to believe he does not have an item.

Will explain later.

Sure, did you steal from me? Explain now.

[skyironsword]

I can't seem to locate a reason for me to obey you. I'll continue searching.

[rob77dp]

We are definitely lynching Solaris. I have reason to believe he does not have an item.

Will explain later.

Sure, did you steal from me? Explain now.

To clear yourself, it would be time-better-spent if you looked around and presented a strong case against another player as a wolf.  Keep in mind if it doesn't jive at least somewhat with my own list of reads then you're going to have to make it a VERY good case against that player since I'm confirmed Brotherhood and BH just managed to lynch our first IP (note: I am NOT taking credit or trying to prop myself up here... just that unconfirmed BH are going to tend to follow my lead as confirmed town given any equal-strength-or-lesser cases).

[rob77dp]

We are definitely lynching Solaris. I have reason to believe he does not have an item.

Will explain later.

Only explain if you HAVE too. (Is anyone else really miffed about the no-NK previous night? I can't put any value to it for IP...)