I'll likely be nightkilled first so I'll post this now before that happens.
Ok, here is a strategy we can use to "abuse" the lynch priority rule in the game. We should decide if we want to use it or not. I think it will let end in a civilian win if we use it, but I may be missing some things and be incorrect. Bad luck on what items the mafia gets could mess this up too, and it isn't foolproof; it's just a good strategy, in my opinion.
How it works is this: there are 22 players, so there will be 4 mafia members. This means the game is unwinnable if no mafia is killed there are only 4 civs left. So we have like 6 or 7 rounds of safety. We randomly choose 5 people at the start of the game, and we will only vote on those people. Since we are choosing a number of people that is higher than the ratio of mafia:civs, chances are good that one of these players is mafia. Not 100%, but it's a decent chance. We then tie the votes between these players each round, until they have all been lynched. As long as average luck occurs, one mafia member would die.
The benefit this strategy has is that it means we are unlikely to lynch special civilian roles early on. With average luck, 0 or 1 of the special civilian roles will be in these 5 people that were randomly chosen. This gives the detective (Winston) role more time to discover identities, and the doctor (Hide) role better odds of saving someone. Since we know that the 5 randomly chosen people will be lynched, using items and abilities on them is pointless unless someone is trying to save them from being lynched. The mafia won't night kill these players, as it speeds up the process of the civilians finding their members.
Once the five players have been lynched, the detective can hopefully clear the names of several people, as long as the detective role wasn't night killed early. The doctor can then protect the detective if he is also alive. With 8 civs and 4 mafia members left (assuming the worst luck), chances are good that the allied civilians will be able to take the game by resuming normal lynching.
Not sure there is much else to it. It's a very different strategy, and I guess it might suck for the 5 randomly chosen people, but I think it's a solid plan that will win the game.
Any and all thoughts are appreciated, and I would advise holding off on voting until we come to a consensus. If it is generally agreed that it will result in a civilian win, those that say we shouldn't use the strategy should be looked at with a critical eye.
I'm putting a reminder here that I stated my disagreement with this plan in
this post before the roll was made.
First off, as Espithel showed
here, there is a 1/3 chance that we are guaranteed to lynch 5 town with this plan. Based on this alone, I would never go along with it. I also want to point out that Demagog disregarded Sera's point of waiting until after the Nightkill to roll, which is objectively better. Of course, that's not all. The proposed benefit is a decreased chance of lynching power roles. This is false. Random lynches are not inherently less likely to lynch power roles. If a power role happens to be rolled, it is true that they will not be one of the first ~3 lynches, but it is also true that they will still be lynched, and as a result of RNG. Power roles are actually more likely to be lynched this way, because they would normally play safer and focus more on avoiding being lynched. This brings me to my next point, which is that random lynches are not going to be as effective as lynches in a normal game, based off of reasoning and scumtells. We've had a good start with a lot of discussion so far, so I'm optimistic on our chances of finding mafia. I'd definitely put over a 2/3 chance that we lynch a mafia in the first five lynches.
Another stated benefit is the decreased chance of investigated town being lynched, but this is countered by their increased chance of being Nightkilled. The only benefits that stand are the increased chance of redirecting the Nightkill, giving Julia the chance to actually save someone, and not wasting Diaries and Secret Notes on the players to be lynched. However, there is yet another reason to oppose this plan, and the main reason I am considering Demagog suspicious. One of the easiest ways for mafia to win is for there to be little discussion among town. Having the first five lynches decided before the first day even begins will inevitably result in a large decrease in discussion. Normal play would consist of people making reads, pushing lynches, debating those lynches, then making more reads based on the discussion and results of those lynches, and the interactions between players. Taking this away will harm town greatly in the long run. If a mafia were among the five players lynched, we would get no clues from their play to find their partners. Applying this strategy and Nightkilling active town would be very effective for Demagog as mafia.
But wait, there's more! In addition to these logical reasons for avoiding this plan, there are other negative effects. Making predetermined lynches for five days is just plain boring. Using RNG to determine lynches gives a possibility for multiple mafia or multiple power roles to be lynched, in either case swaying the game hugely in the other side's favor, completely due to RNG. That is not something that I want to happen, even if it benefits me. We also have to consider that the players who would be lynched purely because of RNG will most likely have a bad mafia. That is also something I would rather avoid, and another excellent reason to avoid this plan.
Taking all of this, and adding that the roll has been compromised, I believe I have made a sound case against Demagog's plan.
