Elements Mafia 59 - by RootRanger

[RootRanger]

You awake to the simultaneous sounds of a distant explosion and a nearby scream. Two wars are being fought. One is fought on the surface, and every citizen is aware of it: Oceania vs Eurasia. The other is underground, hidden from the vast majority of the citizens of Oceania, involving only a handful of people, but far more important. The former war will be a draw, as it always has been, and nothing will change. But for the latter, everything is at stake.

skyironsword has been night killed. She was a Vanilla Brotherhood. She was found with no items.

Day 8 is begun. Day 8 has ended.

There is 1 Inner Party remaining: Charrington.
There are 5 Vanilla Brotherhood remaining.

Spoiler for Remaining Players:

1.) Zawadx
7.) Ginyu
10.) Physsion
11.) mathman101
12.) killsdazombies
19.) dawn to dusk

[dawn to dusk]

2 days to kill mafia, 1 mafia to kill. Easy.

I highly doubt that either math, Physs or kdz are mafia.

This leaves us with Zawad or Ginyu.

Mafia has Victory Gin (oops).

Split votes between Zawad and Ginyu, 3 votes for each of them. If either of them does not cooperate, this is a scumtell.

If neither cooperate, then blegh.

If both cooperate, then we can flush out VG and vote the other on the next day.

We NEED to flush the Gin out today. Else we lose.

I am more inclined to vote for Ginyu at this stage, hence why my vote is on him, however I have only had a brief overview of the thread so far. I am somewhat surprised that I am still alive actually huh

Ginyu (1) - dawn to dusk

It's late game and we're desperate. Hi.


 

[dawn to dusk]

I intend to post more analysis in about 9 hours, which allows for vote changes. The big thing is WE CAN STILL WIN THIS GAME, and despite my inactivity throughout this mafia, it does not mean that I am going to try any less now.

[dawn to dusk]

If you want some reasoning, this came from one of Solaris' posts. This is a psychological view of this game, however, and not hard evidence.

N5 Ginyu - Town - ALIVE - Strong player, accidentally skipped him over when looking for targets earlier.
N6 dawn_to_dusk - Town - ALIVE - Previously inactive, now coming back, I think.

This was when he was starting to be framed of mafia. It is incredibly unlikely for him to be trying to bus 2 civs. It is likely that one of us is civ and the other, mafia. Note that these are the only two players said to be alive at the time of that post, hence why I am only showing us two here. The important thing to note is "accidentally skipped him over when looking for targets earlier." when regarding to Ginyu. Knowing that he is mafia, this is a very strange thing to say, and although he was incredibly reckless and desperate, I don't think he would try to do this to 2 mafia.
That being said I am tired, and someone else could provide more insight onto this situation better than I could.

This being said, I am still requesting for a 50/50 split onto Zawad and Ginyu. Even if it is only 1 vote on each. Or 2 votes on each. I do not care if you abstain, just ensure that by the end of the phase, they both have an even amount of votes.

[Zawadx]

But won't civvie die over mafia if the votes are tied? How does this flush out the victory gin?

[killsdazombies]

Im currently suspicious of d2d and ginyu. Me and math are civs, so that just leaves ginyu, d2d and zawa. If anyone has any information to post now would be the time.

Until then put my vote on d2d

[Ginyu]

Why do you want the voting tie, dawn? If votes are tied, mafia wins. We should definitely make a clear lynch today. Mafia would be the only faction to be in favour of asking for the tie...
I will wait for your reasoning before making my vote.

Until then put my vote on d2d

Ginyu (1) - dawn to dusk
dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies

[dawn to dusk]

That was me thinking that ties are resolved by RNG. My bad...

So how about a 4-2 split? I mean sure that means we need to put out vote on the correct target today, but that shouldn't be too hard to do right?

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
Zawadx (1) - dawn to dusk

Vote change woo

[Ginyu]

Why 4-2 instead of the simple 5-1? 4-2 can still be bad if mafia has propaganda and activated it last night. When mafia has a victory gin like you said, that would be game over. As I mentioned, we need a clear lynch today, and for your two kinda weird suggestions, I am currently more inclined to think that you are mafia trying to bring us in a position in your favour.

dawn to dusk (2) - killsdazombies, Ginyu
Zawadx (1) - dawn to dusk

[dawn to dusk]

That was a mistake on my part not just saying that we should vote majority.

Regardless, we need to be 100% certain of who we want to lynch today, and 100% certain that they are mafia. If that person is me, so be it. As long as you are 100% certain that this is the correct move.
My vote switch to Zawad was to try to flush out a last minute vote but since that doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere, and he still hasn't voted despite mafia having the majority, I doubt that he is mafia.

dawn to dusk (2) - killsdazombies, Ginyu
Ginyu (1) - dawn to dusk

Back to original vote. I am not completely certain that this is correct, and I might be overlooking a lot of things, but this vote is what seems most reasonable to me.

[Ginyu]

My vote switch to Zawad was to try to flush out a last minute vote but since that doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere, and he still hasn't voted despite mafia having the majority, I doubt that he is mafia.

Erm, mind explaining that part? I don't see how that makes him less likely to be mafia. He can still vote later on.

After thinking about it, how can you be so sure mafia took the gin last night? If they won today's lynch by using the gin, they would be dead meat tomorrow, because everyone knew that mafia had the gin. It would then be 3-1, and they would have no chance to win the vote.

[dawn to dusk]

I am assuming worst case scenario for this day and ext, which is why I want to think that Gin is in play. If they do have Propaganda, then it would make sense to Prop tomorrow, knowing that someone will most likely be afk. Votes can be too heavily swung on this day phase, which is why using Gin would make more sense.

If Gin has not been played today, that would be quite risky, and would make them want to think that they can slip under the radar. The three people who could potentially be mafia have been discussed as potential candidates, so it would make no sense for them not to have, as they may die. Surely something might have happened in 40-50 pages that could pass as a slip, right?

If we are outing the correct person today, then no matter what they are mafia, and will be lynched next phase. If Gin has not been used, then they die this phase and we win.

Erm, mind explaining that part? I don't see how that makes him less likely to be mafia. He can still vote later on.

With 2 hours left on the clock, and Zawad nowhere to be seen, it would be more likely that he would try to vote for someone before going afk until end of phase. If he expects to turn up, then we can tackle that when it comes around, but I am just using the information given to me at this stage.