Elements Mafia 59 - by RootRanger

[Espithel]

Spoiler for Expansion on Sera's explanation:

Hypergeometric distribution is a fancy formula people can use to determine, if we pick a number of things from a group without replacement, the probabilities of how many things we'll get. This can also be used to determine the probability of drawing a card from your deck in by turn X, so there's some fun for you.

We have 22 people, our population size.
4 of which are mafia, our successes,
We're picking 5 people at random, our sample size,
And we're checking to see the probability of having one mafia in the five we pick, which is the number of successes in our sample.

If the mafia kills one first, we have 21 people, not 22. This EVER so slightly increases your chances. The difference is in the spoiler below.
If we randomise now, and then the mafia kill one not in the group, we've done 5 picks from a sample size of 22, not 21, which is slightly inferior.
If we randomise now, and then the mafia kill one in the group, we've done 4 picks from a sample size of 22, then a new sample from 21... Or is it 18? Not sure how it works. e.e

Here are the exact probabilities for the gamblers that care:

Spoiler for Hidden:

My opinion on randomness is that you shouldn't be allowed to prove or demonstrate it (So no chat rng), but if you are allowed, you must prove it.

And whilst you know you're not mafia, how do we know you're not mafia? It takes more of a list to persuade someone of that.

[Solaris]

http://random.org

[rob77dp]

http://random.org

* rob77dp whistles

Yes, well, that is what I used.  As Espi put forth -- I will provide nothing more than my word and the idea of in-game strategy and fun as proof of my randomizing unless FGO and host agree it can be provided.

[Zawadx]

ROOT:

"All mafia correspondence among civilians must take place in this thread, with the exception of the use of the “Secret Note” item"

So a dice roll in chat is permissible? What about asking someone to confirm it was the first public dice roll one made?

[RootRanger]

ROOT:

"All mafia correspondence among civilians must take place in this thread, with the exception of the use of the “Secret Note” item"

So a dice roll in chat is permissible? What about asking someone to confirm it was the first public dice roll one made?

Communicating about mafia (including dice rolls) in chat is allowed iff the chat logs are copied directly into the thread immediately afterwards. My reasoning for this is that chat is public and available to all, just as the thread is, and if all information is copied into the thread, there is no secrecy.

Players who discuss mafia in chat but do not transcribe the logs into this thread, or do so incorrectly, will face penalty.

[Demagog]

Rolling a die in chat will definitely be allowed. I will do this myself later today and take a screen shot of each roll. I recommend some of you be there to verify. Probably 5 or 6 hours from now. Each roll will match up with the order of sign up in the game.

Since I proposed this idea, which I think we have agreed is very advantageous for the civs, it can almost be assumed by everyone that I am confirmed civ. It would be a terrible idea to propose it if I were mafia. For this reason, I think it is safest if I do the rolling in chat. If you guys disagree, maybe we can come to a compromise.

As for waiting to see who is nightkilled, there is no need. We can choose the 5 people now and if the mafia kills one, we just randomly choose one more person.

[CleanOnion]

It definitely doesn't confirm you as civvy, but I agree that dicerolls are the way to go here.

It might be best for the mafia if they don't kill anyone tonight, then.

[Demagog]

I agree that it doesn't confirm me, but I would say it makes a very convincing argument, and that I might be viewable as the least likely to be mafia at this time. And I was hoping mafia wouldn't realize it kind of helps them tonight if they don't kill anyone... but cats out of the bag now haha.

[Espithel]

I don't think your plan impacts this game as much as you think it does. It dents the mafia, but it's not so massive an issue.
If anything, putting the entire gameplan to statisical RNG as opposed to deduction is a very mixed blessing. It'll work, but it has the chance to completely screw us over.

Besides, claiming we're in agreement when only a quarter have spoken is a little... Hasty.

[Demagog]

The major selling points are it offers us a strategy and will hopefully keep the powerful civ roles from being lynched early.

[godisnowonline]

I mean i suppose all things considered this is the best course of action. I'm just hoping not to get picked >.< I'm tired of dying early

[Linkcat]

Saying this now in case my name is rolled: I am against this plan. I''ll post more later.