Elements Mafia 59 - by RootRanger

[rob77dp]

EBWOP:

Also, it is implied but just to be explicit -- I think Demagog's plan is as good as any I can come up with so unless we see someone come forward with a better idea I'm in for pushing Dema's through.

[Solaris]

Re: Demagog's 'plan'/ideas:

Here's is my nomination of 5 randomized players to put into Dema's system (in order of randomization -- why not use that order for lynch order too?):

• CR
• Espi
• Solaris / MMC
• sky
• Cal

Thoughts/reactions/ideas/comments? (Keep in mind one of us civvies is going to be dead in < 24 hrs at the end of this night phase so I think it behooves civilians to have a plan in place before that time comes.)

Reaction: WHY ME

Actual reaction: No proof of RNG?

[Sera]

If we're going to random, it is statistically better to let them pick out a civvy before we set lynches. Plus we might get a lead by then, so we'll have a little more informed lynches.

[rob77dp]

Re: Demagog's 'plan'/ideas:

Here's is my nomination of 5 randomized players to put into Dema's system (in order of randomization -- why not use that order for lynch order too?):

• CR
• Espi
• Solaris / MMC
• sky
• Cal

Thoughts/reactions/ideas/comments? (Keep in mind one of us civvies is going to be dead in < 24 hrs at the end of this night phase so I think it behooves civilians to have a plan in place before that time comes.)

Reaction: WHY ME

Actual reaction: No proof of RNG?

Proof of RNG? that would ruin/remove/limit certain degrees of skill in a game like mafia.   That said - don't you trust your Skeletonize-d Master of Death anymore?

[rob77dp]

If we're going to random, it is statistically better to let them pick out a civvy before we set lynches. Plus we might get a lead by then, so we'll have a little more informed lynches.

Perhaps, I would point out that using leads and info to adjust/set lynches goes against part of Dema's plan's supporting foundation. The random-selection of the lynches, i.e. independent of thread posts and information which is the only place civs can chat and is the only place mafia can influence and address civs too, is compromised once you use thread info in the first 5 days to affect lynch votes/choices. Basically, that re-introduces mafia ability to influence the 5 selections to try to ensure ZERO mafia are lynched and such...

[Solaris]

I don't trust anyone in mafia.  Especially not day one. 8)

That being said, Rob, isn't not providing proof still giving the opportunity to mafia to change of the results of RNG?

[Jenkar]

If there isn't proof of rng (ex : making the choice in chat), then who is to tell you're not mafia and choosing 5 civvies :3?

[rob77dp]

If there isn't proof of rng (ex : making the choice in chat), then who is to tell you're not mafia and choosing 5 civvies :3?

Here's the thing - I am not a professional or even expert level mafia game player.  Hence, when I first started playing I used my natural and professional bend of logic and that random is only random is proven etc etc.  There have been many documented instances of this being rebuffed in these Elements' mafia games.  At this point, I have come around to agree that "not proving random" leaves more to the game and that "proving random" removes something from it.

I do understand that inherent in not proving it is the possibility of drawing civ suspicions as mafia. That was taken into account when I posted my random list. At this point, I'd like to ask opinions on proving/not-proving random-ness -- from fellow players, the FGO, and the host of Mafia 59.  What say you regarding random and proof within this mafia 59?

Also, I'd like to note that it might be considered discussion outside this thread if I were to use something Elements chat to randomize. (which we all agreed not to do in our sign-up)

[Sera]

Perhaps, I would point out that using leads and info to adjust/set lynches goes against part of Dema's plan's supporting foundation. The random-selection of the lynches, i.e. independent of thread posts and information which is the only place civs can chat and is the only place mafia can influence and address civs too, is compromised once you use thread info in the first 5 days to affect lynch votes/choices. Basically, that re-introduces mafia ability to influence the 5 selections to try to ensure ZERO mafia are lynched and such...

If we're going for a true random lynch set, then we should at least let the first nk go through, plainly for the sake of removing a civvy from our list which is certainly statistically advantageous.

[rob77dp]

Perhaps, I would point out that using leads and info to adjust/set lynches goes against part of Dema's plan's supporting foundation. The random-selection of the lynches, i.e. independent of thread posts and information which is the only place civs can chat and is the only place mafia can influence and address civs too, is compromised once you use thread info in the first 5 days to affect lynch votes/choices. Basically, that re-introduces mafia ability to influence the 5 selections to try to ensure ZERO mafia are lynched and such...

If we're going for a true random lynch set, then we should at least let the first nk go through, plainly for the sake of removing a civvy from our list which is certainly statistically advantageous.

Maybe today I'm operating on a lower brain function level... but could you explain a bit more how that is statistically advantageous?

(Not that I don't believe your assertion, I would just like to see how you arrived at that conclusion.)

[Sera]

It's very slight, but instead of 4/22 mafia chance, we'd be looking at 4/21 after the civvy lynch.
This also leaves it open for more discussion until the next day. I'm still skeptical about it.

[rob77dp]

It's very slight, but instead of 4/22 mafia chance, we'd be looking at 4/21 after the civvy lynch.
This also leaves it open for more discussion until the next day. I'm still skeptical about it.

As a civilian, I prefer to know a non-mafia has generated the list and eschew the slight statistical advantage gained in shifting from 4/22 to 4/21.