Elements Mafia 59 - by RootRanger

[Demagog]

Winston will hopefully release a large list of confirmed civs and mafia members all at once. That is why my plan is nice, because it will hopefully keep Winston alive long enough to allow for this.

[rob77dp]

Winston will hopefully release a large list of confirmed civs and mafia members all at once. That is why my plan is nice, because it will hopefully keep Winston alive long enough to allow for this.

What are the reasons you have five (5) as the number of randomized opening lynches in your offered plan?

[Demagog]

Just simple math. The more people, the better it works, but we need 1 or 2 rounds after everyone in the list is lynched for us to use the information we get from the strategy.

[Ginyu]

Talking of it, I still miss the actual benefit of this strategy. You said you would abuse the tie-voting mechanism, but how should this give us information, if we go on to kill all 5 people on the list, no matter what? I just don't get why we should go this risk, not to talk that this will make this mafia extremely boring.

[rob77dp]

Just simple math. The more people, the better it works, but we need 1 or 2 rounds after everyone in the list is lynched for us to use the information we get from the strategy.

Did you make sure to include the possibility of:

- all five randoms end up as Brotherhood (town)
- Inner Party (mafia) uses two Victory Cigarettes
- every mafia event has a few mostly-not-playing players in Brotherhood (town)
?

This would be starting with 18 Brotherhood (town), losing one at the start (NK #1), and beginning your plan with:
17 - 5 (ordered random lynches) - 5 (Inner Party NK's includes the night AFTER your plan ends) - 2 (VC's) = 17 - 12 = 5 against the initial 4 Inner Party members!

If Inner Party happens to also have any of the items like Victory Gin / Propoganda which affect voting totals (either by great luck in the outset assignment of items or via Steals in-game) then your plan might be a near instant-loss for our Brotherhood (BH)...?

There is about a 30% chance that a list of 5 per your plan ends up netting 0 Inner Party (IP)!

Even without the cigarette's and lucky-start/steals by IP we would be left with a higher-than-many-would-like chance at staring either 7-against-4 or even 5-against-4 final showdown.

[Demagog]

You are assuming that mafia got one or both cigs which is lower chances than that 30% number you dropped. And I would gladly take a 70% chance of killing mafia in the first five rounds. If we lynched a completely random person each round, are the numbers the same? That is equivalent to using intuition and believing what other players say.

Basically, do we want to risk killing important civ roles very early by using intuition, or keep them around a few rounds by using my plan. Using intuition also gives the mafia a chance to influence the votes by accusing other players.

I'm fine with either strategy, but I think mine is overall safer and will allow for multiple roll calls by Winston in the midgame, as long as mafia doesn't get lucky and kill him.

I will fix the list I made by rolling one more time to replace one of the sixes on that initial roll. At least we will have a list to discuss that way, and I have already covered why it will be  unbiased if I do it.

[godisnowonline]

Demagog, as much as I liked this plan, since my name is on the list i can't help but want to say the plan sucks. Now, the reason I say this is because I'm going to have a lynch train on me for as many as 5 days due to randomly not being selected and then I die. I'd rather not get killed just because of rng. Then I'm going to end up showing scum just for not wanting to die because obviously if i'm mafia I'd defend myself so I don't get lynched. Basically we gain nothing but a pile of bodies because for every round this plan goes forward we randomly either lynch townies or eventually power roles if any are in those 5 or we lynch the 5th person alive because they are obviously mafia because the other 4 flipped town. The more rounds you live in that group of 5 the more scummy you look automatically because you are not getting lynched and odds are that means you are a power role or a mafia. Either way It sucks and I'm stuck because your plan basically involves me sitting here for 5 days waiting to see when I get killed.

[Solaris]

Basically, do we want to risk killing important civ roles very early by using intuition, or keep them around a few rounds by using my plan.

What?! How does pure RNG keep around important roles, if we're literally relying on dice to decide their fate? I do not understand.

[Demagog]

Demagog, as much as I liked this plan, since my name is on the list i can't help but want to say the plan sucks. Now, the reason I say this is because I'm going to have a lynch train on me for as many as 5 days due to randomly not being selected and then I die. I'd rather not get killed just because of rng. Then I'm going to end up showing scum just for not wanting to die because obviously if i'm mafia I'd defend myself so I don't get lynched. Basically we gain nothing but a pile of bodies because for every round this plan goes forward we randomly either lynch townies or eventually power roles if any are in those 5 or we lynch the 5th person alive because they are obviously mafia because the other 4 flipped town. The more rounds you live in that group of 5 the more scummy you look automatically because you are not getting lynched and odds are that means you are a power role or a mafia. Either way It sucks and I'm stuck because your plan basically involves me sitting here for 5 days waiting to see when I get killed.

I realize it sucks, which is why I'm asking if we want to use it. It takes away the "fun" part of the game in order to give us a better chance of winning. I completely understand if we decide not to use it for that reason.

Basically, do we want to risk killing important civ roles very early by using intuition, or keep them around a few rounds by using my plan.

What?! How does pure RNG keep around important roles, if we're literally relying on dice to decide their fate? I do not understand.

It's because we abuse the lynch priority rule. If there are 3 civs, 1 special civ, and 1 mafia in the 5 people, the special civ is lynched on day 4 and the mafia on day 5. If it is Winston, they can clear or accuse 3 people before they will be lynched, which drastically narrows down the number of players we have to look at. The whole point of the plan is to get lucky and have a mafia in the five people, and not lynch a special civ so early that it dooms us. It's not a perfect plan, but I think it's statistically better than relying on intuition.

[Demagog]

Actually I think it's 4 people Winston could clear since we are starting on a night phase. 4 roles revealed by Winston with ~13 players left is pretty good information in my opinion. Worst case, if all are civs, we have narrowed it down to 9 people.

[Demagog]

Also, the doctor role is almost useless since he dies if it's successful, and the other special civ role is only useful if Winston dies. Pretty much our entire chance of winning relies on Winston to reveal roles and us to get lucky.

[Demagog]

Spoiler for Roll to replace extra 6:

[19:19:42] ‹Solaris› ‹@Ginyu› definitely unexpected
[19:19:52] ‹Demagog› k gonna roll to replace that 6, just in case it ever matters
[19:20:00] ‹Demagog›
(1d22) 12 = 12
[19:20:08] ‹inthisroom› ‹@Ginyu› if you mean my application, not that unexpected, I said at the beginning of trials that i was going to join the element with the least participants
[19:20:23] ‹Demagog› that's actually really funny

So that means the numbers are 6, 10, 11, 12, and 13... if we want to go with that solution anyway.