Elements Mafia 58 - by skyironsword

[Lunaris]

Well, its good that the Warmaster is gone, but we are losing our civvies at a very rapid rate.

[ddevans96]

You guys seriously, seriously need to cause stirs and make up events. Even if it's just bs, you can at least be able to discern things from how others react.
That's the only way you lot are going to find mafia with almost no direct information roles.

So do please continue, Evans.

With pleasure.

No, it doesn't. You could easily be mafia, claim the same role as someone else, and then Nightkill them in an attempt to gain town's trust.

Alright, let's break this down into basic possibilities.

A1: I am town // A2: I am mafia
B1: My claim is true // B2: My claim is false

*claim = that my role is Master of Water.

Combining these, we have:

A2/B1: Rule don't permit this. Discard.
A1/B2: I'm town, and I'm lying about my role? In this setup, what merit does that have. Discard, unless someone has a valid reason for why this makes sense.

So that leaves:

C - A1/B1: A soft rolecaim, meaning one without proof, in an attempt to provide insight to town
D - A2/B2: A gambit by mafia, attempt to convince town of C

Here's the thing - the fact that both Link and CO question me on this shows that this would be an extremely risky gambit. I'm not above risk as mafia in smaller games, but in this setup, mafia would much better off playing close to the chest.

That does seem to be the only reason that the peacekeepers would kill a claimed MoDa.

I don't agree. Remember these reasons I gave for lynching MoDA earlier in the thread?

The thing is, it only obscures roles by the nightkill, all of which we know are town. While we lose the knowledge of what specific role they are, we can always fall back easily on strategy, reading scumtellings, etc.

All of these apply to mafia too, except instead of reading scumtells, they would be creating false ones.

I don't think mafia attempting to frame you would accomplish much, and even if they were, I'm pretty sure that one of them would have followed up on my post to try and raise suspicion on you while there were no other targets.

It would accomplish plenty, if they succeeded. Town would lose a player with a valuable skillset in smaller games.

And as for following up to your post, I'll offer this.

No, it doesn't. You could easily be mafia, claim the same role as someone else, and then Nightkill them in an attempt to gain town's trust.

That's a gap of 15 hours, which is sizable, but consider these: Only two other players commented in that time period - myself and CO, who actually did question me. Furthermore, the remaining nine hours overlaps heavily with a standard North American work or school day. Considering how small this game is and how often most people are online, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the two mafia, assuming CO isn't among them, were simply not active then.

Assuming mafia doesn't kill me tonight on the grounds that I've put a dent in their plans to push a lynch for me next day, and as such it is in their interest to kill me, I would strongly suggest plans be put in place to attempt to confirm me, because at this point I'm either the closest thing to a lead we have, or a mafia who with a backfired gambit. Either way, it's worth knowing.

[Linkcat]

*The following post was written in its entirety before I saw dd's post.

Nobody else is saying much, and like Espithel said, we're all going to die if we continue like this, so I'm going to analyze what we do have, the RQS.

Spoiler for Compiled RQS answers.:

MMC
1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible. Not a huge fan of the detrimental town roles.
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup? Mafia.
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host? kek
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1? Yes.
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten? Anything but the one I got.
6. How many people will die on the first night? 2.
7. Can you please not lynch me? kekno

PUFF
1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
 - Town is kill
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
 - See above
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
 - Because she's my first one?
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
 - We probably should just lynch someone
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
 - Anything more fun than what I have
6. How many people will die on the first night?
 - Three?
7. Can you please not lynch me?
 - No.

KDZ
1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
Seems funish? At least its different, better than the sameold sameold
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
Not sure, but advantage means very little compared to
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
?
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
Yes, kill me
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
Any mafia role
6. How many people will die on the first night?
2-3?
7. Can you please not lynch me?
You should kill me instead

DD
1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
Interesting setup. Should make for some fun gameplay, if nothing else.
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
Town, slightly. Mafia can overcome it with respectable play.
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
She's not, but she's up there. I respect her attempts to make her games both enjoyable and balanced.
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
In this setup, I think it's a valid option.
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
Master of Water, for comedic reasons.
6. How many people will die on the first night?
I would put a fair o/u at 1.5, betting on the over.
7. Can you please not lynch me?
Sure.

MATH
1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
It looks ok, a nice change from the standard mafia setups.
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
not sure yet, but initial is feeling town.
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
Because she is the current host. 
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
Yes, The less harmful roles the better the chances town has.
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
Master of Life...... 
6. How many people will die on the first night?
Feeling 2 or 3.
7. Can you please not lynch me?
At the start sure.....but if you turn scummy 

DAWN

1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
Looks interesting enough, I like the negative roles, even if others don't
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
Depending on the roles gotten by peacekeepers and how they play, they could potentially have an edge. However the same goes for the rebels.
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
Why wouldn't she be?
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
Depends on which one. There are some which, while nice to be rid of, should not be as high priority as others.
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
Life Master. Mathman ain't got shit on me
6. How many people will die on the first night?
Again, depends on what roles have been gotten, but I guess I will say 1 and be optimistic.
7. Can you please not lynch me?
Well that's no fun now is it?

GINO

1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
I think that its going to be interesting especially if town doesn't get to choose who they target.
2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
Possibly mafia if town got a lot of the killing roles.
3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
This is like my 5th mafia, not really enough experiences to have a favorite yet.
4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
If we knew the role on day one of course. Getting rid of town that is boning town is almost as good as a mafia kill day one.
5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
I don't know, i think it was a little complicated for me.
6. How many people will die on the first night?
More than 0? I don't know how unlucky we got, i suppose we will find out in about 30 hours.
7. Can you please not lynch me?
If i did that and your mafia that would be bad for town now wouldn't it?

KURO
1. What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
Initially I was a bit concerned that the theme would cause some sort of drama (>_>), but it's actually nowhere near the level of stress I imagined. The enforced ability usage is pretty fun even though the abilities are detrimental; this is something I hope would be placed in a future mafia.

2. Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
I want to say town because there's only two mafia players to kill, but given how many crappy abilities there are...

3. Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
She's one of my overall favorite forum game hosts actually, although favorite mafia hosting probably goes to either RootRanger or killsdazombies. ^^;;

4. Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
The only roles worth removing on Day 1 are:

    Master of Darkness (self explanatory, otherwise no one knows who is dying)
    Master of Fire (prevents a free revival of a Peacekeeper/Mafia player who has too strong an ability)
    Warmaster (minor boost towards mafia, might actually be useful for figuring out voting totals)

Everything else is pretty much debatable, but the above three are the worst, because they give out pretty significant advantages towards Peacekeeper/mafia roles. I'm going to assume no one is Master of Darkness, because if they were, they should be speaking out RIGHT NOW to avoid having wasted/mystery lynches and night kills.

5. Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
Master of Time maybe, but I would prefer Forum Game Organizer, even though I wish that the game was based off of Relic Sweeper, RAID, or Quantafied, and not the (apparently) least popular forum game, 'Witch's Game'. :/

6. How many people will die on the first night?
Hopefully 0, although I'd be happy/thankful if Master of Earth and/or Master of Aether could prevent a night kill.

7. Can you please not lynch me?
I certainly tried before, Linkcat.

LINK
1. I stated my thoughts earlier in the thread. I see this mafia as a chance to relax and just have some fun.
2. Mafia has the upper hand here. I wouldn't give town much of an advantage in a vanilla 12v2 setup, and the roles make it much worse for us.
3. I enjoy having the extra challenge of an unbalanced setup, such as this mafia, or 57, wich had 10 confirmed town Day 2. It makes for a much more enjoyable game. /s
4. The only roles that I think are worth using a lynch on are Master of Time, Master of Fire, and Brawlmaster, and only Master of Time needs to be lynched right away. We can leave the other two alone for now unless we don't have anything going on day 2.
5. I would have enjoyed any role that lets me kill a bunch of people, which would be any mafia role, Master of Time, Brawlmaster, or FGO. I also would have liked to be Master of Earth, as the only Power Role.
6. I'm betting on 2-3, though I hope for more just because it would be hilarious.
7. Please?

Minor note here: I accidentally put Brawlmaster when I meant Warmaster. Obviously Brawlmaster is the worst possible lynch.

9/14 players answered the RQS.
Answered: MMC, Puff, kdz, dd, math, dawn, gino, Kuro, Linkcat.
Didn't answer: UTA, Espithel, Onion, kitten, randomperson.

Question 1: What do you think of this setup? Don't forget that town must use their abilities whenever possible.
Don't like negative roles: MMC, Puff.
Fun/interesting: Kdz, dd, math, dawn, gino, Kuro, Linkcat.

Question 2: Do either town or mafia have an advantage in this setup?
Mafia: MMC, Puff, gino, Linkcat.
Town: dd, math.
Even/Not Sure: kdz, dawn, Kuro.

Question 3: Why is sky your favorite mafia host?
This was just a fun question.

Question 4: Is it worth lynching a harmful role Day 1?
Yes/Valid Strategy: MMC, kdz, dd, math, dawn, gino, Kuro, Linkcat.
Should just lynch someone: Puff.

Question 5: Which role do you wish you would have gotten?
Anything else: MMC, Puff.
Mafia: kdz, Linkcat.
Position that I have/want: dd, math, dawn, Kuro.
Not sure: gino.

Question 6: How many people will die on the first night?
More than 1: MMC, Puff, kdz, dd, math, Linkcat.
Optimistic: dawn, Kuro.
Not sure: gino.

Question 7: Can you please not lynch me?
No: MMC, Puff, dawn, gino, Kuro.
Lynch me instead: kdz.
Yes: dd.
Maybe: math.
Please?: Linkcat.

What stands out to me here is that MMC and Puff were the first two to answer, and they had similar answers to 5 of the questions. MMC was town, and I see a possibility that Puff, as a first-time mafia player, rolled mafia and answered the RQS quickly, giving similar answers to someone she knew was town in an attempt to appear town.

It's not much, but that's what I got so far. There might be other clues here.

[Linkcat]

When I said framing you wouldn't do much, I meant that it would be very unlikely to result in a lynch.

I'm not sure if/how you were trying to refute my point about mafia following up on my post. There was ample oppurtunity in the hours following my post.

I'm also not sure how you got the idea that mafia was going to try to lynch you tomorrow.

[ddevans96]

When I said framing you wouldn't do much, I meant that it would be very unlikely to result in a lynch.

Considering both you and CO now suspect me, most of the roles that threaten town are gone, and there has been minor discussion about lynching others, I don't see it as very unlikely. Maybe unlikely, but not very.

I'm not sure if/how you were trying to refute my point about mafia following up on my post. There was ample oppurtunity in the hours following my post.

Sure, there was opportunity, but as I showed, no guarantee that mafia would even be around, given the size of the opportunity was less than a full day's cycle and the fact that there aren't many players left in the game.

I'm also not sure how you got the idea that mafia was going to try to lynch you tomorrow.

It's something I would consider in this situation if I were mafia, and even something I have done as mafia in a similar situation, so I addressed the possibility. Nowhere did I say it's something I expect, I only implied it would be viable.

[CleanOnion]

Considering both you and CO now suspect me

Nah

[ddevans96]

Considering both you and CO now suspect me

Nah

Sorry - given that it seems that both you and Link suspect me. In your case, based only off your post quoted in my wall of text above. So if you don't, why?

[Sera]

It's logical for them to nk confirmed town anyway, regardless if it's a somewhat harmful role. Which is why I also think we should stop asking people to step forward to get lynched.

[skyironsword]

Spoiler for Lore:

[10:25:33] Guest-Virus-9bt3s joined.
[10:26:40] ‹Guest-Virus-9bt3s› How do you beat dim shield?
[10:26:52] ‹kinkykitten624› ‹@Guest-Virus-9bt3s› If you're just starting out, you can try deflag or steal
[10:27:10] ‹Guest-Virus-9bt3s› I'm playing as life
[10:27:22] ‹dawn_to_dusk› ‹@Guest-Virus-9bt3s› Let's be friends
[10:27:56] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Hearthstone from Higurashi. Dm1321 read it already.
[10:28:22] ‹godisnowonline› You can change your mark and add 1 or 2 deflags
[10:28:40] ‹Guest-Virus-9bt3s› I don't have any gold
[10:28:54] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Elements 1.4 from zanzarino. Wanna do a thing?
[10:29:11] ‹CleanOnion› Grind level 0?
[10:29:21] ‹kinkykitten624› You should have some cards to sell.
[10:29:45] ‹Guest-Virus-9bt3s› Actually, I managed to annoy my little brother earlier while still logged on. I have nothing.
[10:30:22] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Restart?
[10:30:40] ‹Guest-Virus-9bt3s› I have a nymph in my deck. I don't want to lose it.
[10:31:22] ‹CleanOnion› I think grinding level 0 is the way to go.
[10:31:40] ‹Guest-Virus-9bt3s› Thanks guys
[10:32:01] Guest-Virus-9bt3s left.
[10:41:04] mathman101 left.

Instructions

mathman101 was banned. He was the Card Curator.

Day 3: Complete.

[godisnowonline]

Well that was awkward. Try again later? Sorry to see our favorite frog is dead.

[mathman101]

err...blarg....death....




Good luck civies, hope you can beat the mafia.

[CleanOnion]

Root, Sub and Manuel aren't playing, UTA is dead...

I have no clue for whom to vote, so I'm going to roll with kinky and see if that gets her talking...

kinkykitten624 [1] - CleanOnion