Elements Mafia 57 - by Naesala

[Espithel]

Is ashiok in the game?

Yes.

[UTAlan]

I was going to point this out after giving enough time for Nahiri to contact her target. I think 24 hours is long enough. I propose that anyone contacted by someone claiming to be Nahiri after the time of Root's post should not believe that person, and if nobody comes out tomorrow saying math is mafia, we all roleclaim to him. This relies on a couple assumptions, but a confirmed town immune to Nightkills is so valuable that I think it's worth the risk. A full roleclaim would result in a civvy central of math, Nahiri, Ajani, Elspeth, Narset, and Nahiri's Night 1 target. That's ~5 people on Day 3, which is more than the mafia. It's essentially a won game at that point.

Even if we don't go with that immediate plan, lynching someone immune to Nightkills is still a mistake. I also have a hard time believing a mafia Nicol Bolas would target themselves. I don't have any suspicions right now, so I'm going with No Lynch.

Not lynching mathman gives us the possibility of civvy central, at the cost of an extra Nightkill and the risk of flat out losing the game. High risk, high reward. But there are too many factors that could lead to a loss (mathman being mafia, Elspeth killing mathman, Ob Nixilis killing mathman, Ashiok screwing with town plans, Teferi screwing with town plans... and that's just with a quick glance through the roles. The risk is too high, imo.

[Solaris]

Sarkahn Vol Rage courses in every heart, yearning to betray its rational prison Crux of Fate:You may choose a different person than the player who was lynched who had votes on them to die due to the lynch. (OU)

This might hurt, if this is a mafia plan. Of course, math could just be Ob Nixilis'd if this happens.

[Solaris]

What if Nahiri's night 1 target was Mafia, or 1 of the 3 civvies lynched by tomorrow? There's only about a 65% chance that Nihiri will have a mouthpiece (assuming 4 Mafia).

Speaking of which, do we know how many Mafia there are? I don't remember seeing it anywhere and can't be bothered looking.

I'd trust that Nahiri would inform of us mafia.

4 mafia ingame.

Except there might be 5, since a quarter of 20 would be 5.

/MeowMeowDerp

[Linkcat]

The only situations in which not lynching math really hurts us are A: Both math and Ashiok are mafia, B: Both math and Teferi are mafia, or C: Both math and Nairi's first target are mafia. All of these situations require math to be mafia, which isn't that likely. Anything else results in either a minor loss or a huge benefit. I encourage Sarkahn Vol to save math if he has the most votes at the end of the day.

[killsdazombies]

mathman101 [5]- kinkykitten624, UTAlan, Ginyu, CleanOnion, dawn to dusk
killsdazombies [1]- MeowMeowCat
No Lynch [3] - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, killsdazombies

[dawn to dusk]

mathman101 [4]- kinkykitten624, UTAlan, Ginyu, CleanOnion
killsdazombies [1]- MeowMeowCat
No Lynch [4] - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, killsdazombies, dawn to dusk

New train, new vote

[Kuroaitou]

mathman101 [4]- kinkykitten624, UTAlan, Ginyu, CleanOnion
killsdazombies [1]- MeowMeowCat
No Lynch [5] - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, killsdazombies, dawn to dusk, Kuroaitou

[CrockettRocket]

mathman101 [4]- kinkykitten624, UTAlan, Ginyu, CleanOnion
killsdazombies [1]- MeowMeowCat
No Lynch [5] - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, killsdazombies, dawn to dusk, Kuroaitou

+1vote on mathman just to tie it up

[Ginyu]

mathman101 [5]- kinkykitten624, UTAlan, Ginyu, CleanOnion, CrockettRocket
killsdazombies [1]- MeowMeowCat
No Lynch [5] - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, killsdazombies, dawn to dusk, Kuroaitou

The only situations in which not lynching math really hurts us are A: Both math and Ashiok are mafia, B: Both math and Teferi are mafia, or C: Both math and Nairi's first target are mafia. All of these situations require math to be mafia, which isn't that likely. Anything else results in either a minor loss or a huge benefit. I encourage Sarkahn Vol to save math if he has the most votes at the end of the day.

B is not true. Teferi being mafia alone will win a lot for them. They get our most valuable role, and they still get a free nightkill. If Ob Nixilis ("Kill target if you can identify their role. (2U)") is mafia, math's immunity to nightkills won't be worth anything. So, even if math is town, the risk is high. If he is mafia, we basically instalose.

[Linkcat]

Teferi is EoR, so he is most likely on cooldown tonight if math is town. Ob being mafia is valuable information for any future roleclaims. Math alone being mafia is in no way instalose as long as Nahiri didn't screw up. We can also choose not to send our roles.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

mathman101 [4]- kinkykitten624, UTAlan, Ginyu, CleanOnion
killsdazombies [1]- MeowMeowCat
No Lynch [6] - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, killsdazombies, dawn to dusk, Kuroaitou, JonathanCrazyJ