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Offline Zawadx

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214881#msg1214881
« Reply #144 on: November 14, 2015, 02:34:46 pm »
NIGHT 1

Lately, Devan Seaworth always felt like his feet were tangled together. A King should have three or more squires. He reflected bitterly as he carried the ceremonial doublet up to King Stannis's chamber. As the son of the Hand, he had the honor of working his butt off managing all of the King's needs while the whole royal retinue sat happily sipping their beer. Devan had been trained to work with both hands under his mother's harsh eyes, but nothing had prepared him for tending to the Face of the kingdom.

Devan entered Stannis's private room to find the King already outfitted in somber grey. Great... I slack off for five minutes and he reverts to his old habits. Devan sighed. What will I ever tell Father? He dutifully followed the King as he left his chamber for Baelor's Sept.

A huge crowd had gathered, over half of them noblemen, to watch the prisoner at Baelor's Sept. Walder Frey's form was limp in chains, his weak arms having given up on resisting his fate. Stannis had began purging the Lords of Westeros of all injustice, and the murderous Walder Frey would be his first target. The King himself passed through the crowd, and spoke out, "Today, I speak from the same platform as all of you. For we will no longer have any injustice, and everyone will receive his rights as due. And we start by eliminating this monster!"

The cheers rose in waves through the crowds as the Chief Gaoler tore through Walder Frey's neck in one clean cut.

And the next morning, Devan found that Stannis had disappeared from his bedchamber. Great. Now what do I tell Father?



Linkcat was lynched. He was a Faceless Man posing as Walder Frey.
Stannis Baratheon activated his Iron Fist to ensure that everyone, including himself, was on an equal footing for the vote.

Night 1 has ended

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground.

Offline Dm

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214882#msg1214882
« Reply #145 on: November 14, 2015, 02:37:36 pm »
PM me all your info, my folks.

If you lie or don't send, don't hate me for what may happen.

PS: Protective role please protect me. Thanks.

Offline Submachine

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214885#msg1214885
« Reply #146 on: November 14, 2015, 03:06:45 pm »
Spoiler for Posting Value Analysis:
So in the end we had 18 people voting. There are 22 players. 4 people didn't vote:
  • killsdazombies
  • Espithel
  • Coffeeditto
  • antiaverage
The only person who didn't post anything is Coffeeditto, but Kuro can speak up for him as a FGO. Coffee can't come online between November 12 and 19, because he couldn't afford cable bills. This is the reason why I'm not saying he's suspicious yet, though it can be a handy excuse if he's FM.

kirbylover314's only post was a voting post, so he also essentially posted nothing so far.

The only person with only 1 post is Espithel. That post was a question only for personal clarification, which looks unrelated to the game. Posting value = 0,5.

People with 2 posts are killsdazombies, antiaverage, Naesala, eljoemo and mathman101.
  • Kdz's first post was an opinion about game mechanics, the second was noticing that the countdown was set wrong. Actual discussion about the game was not started yet.
  • AA's first post looks like a simple flavour post, while the second looks like either an attempt to start a bandwagon or a joke. The latter did spark a small conversation.
  • Nae's first post was a reference to mafia 51, probably having flashbacks of the whole Fen'Harel case. Her second post was a voting post with small extra content. The only word that was her own in these posts was a reply to flavour, probably playing way too much cautious. Being super cautious is more like a mafia trait, but it's only day 1 yet, so we'll see how things evolve from here.
  • eljoe's first post has a humorous Captain Obvious vibe, so I'm calling it a joke post. His second post was a voting post with small extra content. Still hoping to see more of eljoe's personality traits to be able to read him better.
  • math's first post was pure voting nothing else, his second post can be called a "bandwagon" on opinions which was more related to the mechanics than the game itself. Actual discussion about the game was not started yet.

People with 3 posts are MeowMeowCat, dawn to dusk, Ginyu, Calindu, Kuroaitou and skyironsword.
  • MMC's first post was simply flavour, his second was EBWOP with more flavour and joking, while his third was only voting. Actual discussion about the game was not started yet.
  • dawn's first post was either a joke or a hidden threat depending on what faction he is, his second post was an opinion, and his third can be counted as a pure voting post. He actually did flesh one of his traits a bit, which we need to see more of. It's a start.
  • Ginyu's first post was a reply, a correction and a plan in one, his second and third were voting posts with extra content. He did say more than just following a previously stated plan, which is a good start. We'll see how things will evolve from here.
  • Calindu's first and second posts were pure voting posts, while his third was joining an "bandwagon" of opinions. 3 posts that are purely just following others, we saw literally nothing of his own personality yet.
  • Kuro's first post is a copy of a mafia post, his second is questionable, but the emoticon in the end looks like he's showing worry. And finally his third was mostly his opinion about game mechanics and current roles. To extend this a little bit, Kuro showed even more worry in chat when Dm first announced that he found Linkcat as mafia. He's showing worry towards things that a Lord [LW] shouldn't be worried about, so he walked into a bit suspicious territory. He is one person I'd like to lock in a talking state from now on so we can know more about his current traits.
  • sky's first post had a Captain Obvious vibe again, so I'll call it a joke post (if it was serious, it's a neutral post with no value considering that both factions would say this). Her second post was a revelation post which is heavily relevant, but her third was just a voting post. She's really giving us the silent treatment here, but that one revelation post is relevant enough to make that single post enough for the whole game.

Linkcat had 4 posts, just for the record. His first one was a normal post with normal value, his second was a voting post with minor extra content, his third was joining a "bandwagon" of opinions and his last post was voting with flavour. I'll live with the opportunity and skip examining someone's traits who's about to get revealed anyway.

UTAlan looks like he has 6 posts, but in fact his third and fourth are pure voting posts and his fifth post is only a correction by EBWOP. So his real posting value is around only 3.

Last but not least, RavingRabbid also has some interesting posts. His first post is flavour for something that's not even in the game, his second is pure EBWOP, his third post is just a clarification reply but is still only flavour, his fourth is only flavour again, and finally his fifth is voting with minor extra content. He managed to post 5 times with a posting value around only 0,5.

Now let's organize the raw data somehow. I'll count the posting value of each player. Below is the formula that I will use, which is based on personal deduction, so comments on how to improve it are welcome.
Posting Value [PV]
EBWOP0
Correcting unrelated things said by others0
Flavour and jokes0
Voting0
Following a "bandwagon" of opinions0
Neutral posts0
Voting with minor extra content0,5
Answering someone else's questions0,5
Things unrelated to the current game but related to mafia games0,5
Very short actual content0,5
Useful and related opinions1
Posts that spark discussion1
Previously unstated informations, plans4

With this, I'd like to present the final table:

PlayerPostsPVVoted?Comments
Coffeeditto000 timesHe has no internet connection. Handy, but true excuse
kirbylover314100 times
Espithel10,50 times
killsdazombies20,50 times
antiaverage210 times
Naesala21yes
eljoemo20,5yes
mathman10120,5yes
MeowMeowCat30yes
dawn to dusk31yes
Ginyu32yes
Calindu30yes
Kuroaitou31,5yesIt is advised to investigate him
skyironsword34onceShe doesn't need to post for a long time
Linkcat41,5yesHe turned out to be FM
UTAlan63yes
RavingRabbid50,5yes

Everyone who's currently at a PV of less than 2 is required further attention to see how things evolve from here.
And we keep driving into the night
It's a late goodbye, such a late goodbye...

~ Platinum Quest ~

Offline Dm

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214886#msg1214886
« Reply #147 on: November 14, 2015, 03:13:15 pm »
You forgot me and you.

Offline Submachine

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214887#msg1214887
« Reply #148 on: November 14, 2015, 03:21:43 pm »
PM me all your info, my folks.

If you lie or don't send, don't hate me for what may happen.

PS: Protective role please protect me. Thanks.
As it is indeed the best option to speed everything up, I'd feel much more comfortable if we could confirm you tonight. Even then, I do second the idea that everyone should roleclaim to you. For me, it's worth revealing all our roles to the FM if we kill a second FM pretty early in exchange. This would be a good RQS question.

Here are my plans for specific roles:

Robert 'Sweetrobin' Arryn: You look like the best role to investigate Dm tonight. Later on, Arryn should be investigated too.
skyironsword, then please protect Dm tonight.
I'd also like to ask Barristan Selmy to protect either sky or me, chosen either randomly or decided entirely secretly by Dm, sky, Barristan and I. Either way, do not publicly post who you're going to target.


You forgot me and you.
The 5 people I didn't include had 5+ posts, so I didn't check them. RR and UTA are only included because I noticed their low-PV posts beforehand.
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It's a late goodbye, such a late goodbye...

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Offline worldwideweb3

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214896#msg1214896
« Reply #149 on: November 14, 2015, 04:27:06 pm »
Don't send your roles. For all we know, Dm can still be a Mafia.
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Offline worldwideweb3

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214897#msg1214897
« Reply #150 on: November 14, 2015, 04:29:04 pm »
Sub, you forgot me.
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Offline Submachine

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214901#msg1214901
« Reply #151 on: November 14, 2015, 04:36:46 pm »
Here is a good question, people. It's also a good chance to raise your VP totals. ;)

Do you think it's worth revealing all our roles to the entire Faceless team if in exchange we would get 2 FM killed pretty early?

For me, I think yes, because then we wouldn't need to hide any more and we could openly strategize and reveal our roles to all the Lords of Westeros. If we did that, we would only need to find 3 mafia and we would also have plenty of time left to do so.


Www, check my reply to Dm's post. I explain it there.
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Offline Ginyu

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214905#msg1214905
« Reply #152 on: November 14, 2015, 04:55:27 pm »
Do you think it's worth revealing all our roles to the entire Faceless team if in exchange we would get 2 FM killed pretty early?

How would we get 2 FM killed when mass roleclaiming to a FM/officially?
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Offline Ginyu

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214906#msg1214906
« Reply #153 on: November 14, 2015, 04:56:16 pm »
EBWOP: Not saying Dm is faceless.
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Offline Submachine

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214908#msg1214908
« Reply #154 on: November 14, 2015, 05:00:18 pm »
Do you think it's worth revealing all our roles to the entire Faceless team if in exchange we would get 2 FM killed pretty early?

How would we get 2 FM killed when mass roleclaiming to a FM/officially?
My question resembles a theory. If Dm was a mafia [FM] who bussed another mafia [FM] to get all our roles, would it be worth it to send our moves to him before we investigate him?

When I say it would lead to 2 FM killed early, I count the bussed Linkcat too. The theory has no relevance if Dm is a Lord and all points show that Dm is a Lord anyway, so it would only help to know the players' opinions.
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Offline JonathanCrazyJ

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Re: Elements Mafia 53 - by Zawadx https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=60332.msg1214918#msg1214918
« Reply #155 on: November 14, 2015, 06:22:12 pm »
Did anyone use an ability on me so all my posts became invisible?
If so good job, you made Sub miss me in his ocd epic post analysis.
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