Elements Mafia 52 - by eljoemo

[JonathanCrazyJ]

I re-itterate. No lynch is always harmful to town.

Lynching:
5/20 are mafia. we have a 25% chance to kill mafia, and a 75% chance that the first death will be civvy.

No Lynch:
Someone gets NKed. 100% chance that the first death is civvy.


With that in mind:



6th in the list is Ginyu. Sorry.

dawn to dusk (1) - dawn to dusk
No Lynch (7) - worldwideweb3, UTAlan, rob77dp, RavingRabbid, Linkcat, skyironsword, Coffeeditto, Espithel
Ginyu (1) - JonathanCrazyJ

[rob77dp]

I re-iterate. No lynch is always harmful to town.

Lynching:
5/20 are mafia. we have a 25% chance to kill mafia, and a 75% chance that the first death will be civvy.

No Lynch:
Someone gets NKed. 100% chance that the first death is civvy.

Hmmm, I guess I don't see how the Nk affects how town should vote day one? No lynch our random lynch will still have town losing someone night one, right?

Public random roll day one lynch target however does pique my interest...

[JonathanCrazyJ]

it's simple from my point of view, either we can have a 25% chance of killing a mafia, or we do nothing and wait to get picked off.

[rob77dp]

dawn to dusk (1) - dawn to dusk
No Lynch (6) - worldwideweb3, UTAlan, RavingRabbid, Linkcat, skyironsword, Coffeeditto, Espithel
Ginyu (2) - JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp

I have decided that the risk of one civvy hit is probably worth the chance of hitting 20% of the total maids count... Random first is random best?

[ddevans96]

I re-itterate. No lynch is always harmful to town.

Lynching:
5/20 are mafia. we have a 25% chance to kill mafia, and a 75% chance that the first death will be civvy.

No Lynch:
Someone gets NKed. 100% chance that the first death is civvy.

Again, I don't agree. The chance of killing a highly useful civilian, either due to abilities or skill, is just as high if not higher than the chance of killing a mafia, ignoring the chance of killing a less useful civilian, which is still an undesirable lynch.

Regarding the first death, a civilian is going to die anyways during the night, regardless of how we vote during the day. The difference is there's a much higher chance of having two dead civilians than one.

No lynch is not definitively harmful to town. It can be, but not always, and I'd argue not usually.

[UTAlan]

dawn to dusk (1) - dawn to dusk
No Lynch (6) - worldwideweb3, UTAlan, RavingRabbid, Linkcat, skyironsword, Coffeeditto, Espithel
Ginyu (2) - JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp
Dm (1) - UTAlan

Trusting someone...and I'm not sure why. We'll see how this plays out.

[Linkcat]

I re-iterate. No lynch is always harmful to town.

This is false. Along with what dd said, a lynch will give us zero information about anyone else because Ginyu hasn't interacted with anyone. In the lore, this is the exact same as taking out a gun and shooting a random person. It would be pretty shitty if Ginyu didn't get to play just because a dice landed on his number.

Trust me on this one.

[dawn to dusk]

I re-itterate. No lynch is always harmful to town.

Lynching:
5/20 are mafia. we have a 25% chance to kill mafia, and a 75% chance that the first death will be civvy.

No Lynch:
Someone gets NKed. 100% chance that the first death is civvy.

Lynching:
5/20 are mafia. We have a 25% chance to kill mafia, and a 75% chance that the first 2 deaths will be civvy

No-Lynch:
Someone gets NKed. 100% chance that the first death is civvy

The NK will happen either way so it's not a matter of the first civvy to die, it's a matter of preserving as many civvies as we can until we get strong leads. And the best way to do that is to not kill someone who has a 75% chance of being civ, but to not kill at all.

Ginyu (2) - JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp
Dm (1) - UTAlan

There is literally no reason to continue posting the No Lynch train. It goes towards absolutely nothing. Unless you want the voting tallies to look like:
Ginyu (2) - JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp
Dm (1) - UTAlan
No Lynch (17) - skyironsword, Linkcat, Kuroaitou, MeowMeowCat, Ginyu, kirbylover314, flyingcat, killsdazombies, Zawadx, dawn to dusk, Coffeeditto, mathman101, RavingRabbid, Dm, ddevans96, Espithel, worldwideweb3

No lynch only happens if nobody votes. Again, that won't happen because jcj is hungry.

[Submachine]

No lynch only happens if nobody votes. Again, that won't happen because jcj is hungry.

~ghostly whisper~: No lynch also happens in case of a major tie.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

Fine.
I still disagree, but let it not be said democracy is dead in Mafia.

No Lynch (7) - worldwideweb3, UTAlan, RavingRabbid, Linkcat, skyironsword, Coffeeditto, Espithel, JonathanCrazyJ
Ginyu (1) - rob77dp
Dm (1) - UTAlan

I'm a little confused by the lynch totals, I think this is correct.

[dawn to dusk]

No lynch only happens if nobody votes. Again, that won't happen because jcj is hungry.

~ghostly whisper~: No lynch also happens in case of a major tie.

Doesn't justify the need for the train

Again, why the frack is that train a thing??? There is seriously no point to it and it is starting to annoy me how people decide it's a good idea to make a vote train designated to people who aren't voting

The voting totals, if you are that intent on that train are:
Ginyu (2) - rob77dp
Dm (1) - UTAlan
No Lynch (17) - skyironsword, Linkcat, Kuroaitou, MeowMeowCat, Ginyu, kirbylover314, flyingcat, killsdazombies, Zawadx, dawn to dusk, Coffeeditto, mathman101, RavingRabbid, Dm, ddevans96, Espithel, worldwideweb3, JonathanCrazyJ

[dawn to dusk]

Ginyu (1) - rob77dp
Dm (1) - UTAlan
No Lynch (17) - skyironsword, Linkcat, Kuroaitou, MeowMeowCat, Ginyu, kirbylover314, flyingcat, killsdazombies, Zawadx, dawn to dusk, Coffeeditto, mathman101, RavingRabbid, Dm, ddevans96, Espithel, worldwideweb3, JonathanCrazyJ

numbers suck