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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175774#msg1175774
« Reply #444 on: January 13, 2015, 02:42:14 am »
Because at that time, all the people who claimed to Sub were still alive, and after our conversation, it was reasonable for me to assume you weren't mafia. Now, two of them are dead, and confirmed civilian, so that leaves you and me, and I know I'm not mafia. The chance that Sub, essentially a confirmed mafia, asked for people to claim mafia, and four non-mafia and zero mafia claimed, is extremely illogical.
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Offline Zawadx

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175794#msg1175794
« Reply #445 on: January 13, 2015, 09:26:46 am »
Also, a message to kirby: Unless you are a mafia, do NOT give yourself up. If you are a civvie, then you have yourself confirmed and it's your responsibility to support the civvie faction by not killing yourself. While yeah, you might've not done anything, but not resisting lynch if you're civvie is pretty criminal.
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Offline Physsion

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175795#msg1175795
« Reply #446 on: January 13, 2015, 09:53:29 am »
Now, two of them are dead, and confirmed civilian, so that leaves you and me, and I know I'm not mafia. The chance that Sub, essentially a confirmed mafia, asked for people to claim mafia, and four non-mafia and zero mafia claimed, is extremely illogical.
This thought process doesn't make sense to me.

You are saying that 1 of the 4 people that claimed to Sub must be mafia. This is not necessarily true, by any means. A situation where all real mafia members thought it was too risky to claim to Sub is not impossible at all. After all, it was Crockett's plan all along to have innocent civilians claim to Sub.

Statistically, for anyone on the outside looking in, you and I have the same odds as each other to be mafia. It doesn't make sense that one minute you are convinced that I can be trusted, and the next you completely change your mind when you and I get put into the same situation.

I will raise the point again that I did not claim to Submachine. I don't know how my name ended up involved in that. In fact, a possible explanation could be that you were the one that got my name involved, to try to scout out other mafia members. While I don't think this is likely, I'd like you to think some more about your suspicions against me.

There is nothing more I can say to prove my innocence. In your own words, I know I'm not mafia - and if the information you provided is true, then I know Dm IS mafia.

Changing vote to physsion to watch you guys overanalyze this when honestly I'm just playing around.

Lynching me means two civilians die tonight. Dm is just sitting there, watching me try to defend myself, as you all vote against me.

Please, change your votes. We can't afford more losses like this.


Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175806#msg1175806
« Reply #447 on: January 13, 2015, 03:28:15 pm »
You are saying that 1 of the 4 people that claimed to Sub must be mafia. This is not necessarily true, by any means. A situation where all real mafia members thought it was too risky to claim to Sub is not impossible at all. After all, it was Crockett's plan all along to have innocent civilians claim to Sub.

You are the one using absolutes, not me. I just said I find another situation is logically unlikely. I never said 'must' or 'impossible'.

Quote
Statistically, for anyone on the outside looking in, you and I have the same odds as each other to be mafia. It doesn't make sense that one minute you are convinced that I can be trusted, and the next you completely change your mind when you and I get put into the same situation.

It makes plenty of sense. When all four of us were alive, and you gave me that information, my line of suspicion was kirby > Crockett > you. Now, they are both confirmed as civilian, so it becomes you > kirby = Crockett. Us being in the same situation isn't relevant, if you were replaced with someone else I knew for sure was mafia, I'd follow the same train of thought.

Quote
I will raise the point again that I did not claim to Submachine. I don't know how my name ended up involved in that. In fact, a possible explanation could be that you were the one that got my name involved, to try to scout out other mafia members. While I don't think this is likely, I'd like you to think some more about your suspicions against me.

So, if you didn't claim, there's two possible scenarios - Sub sent me a false name, or he sent me an incorrect name.

But fine, I'll take my vote off you and let everyone else decide. I didn't want to vote in the first place anyways.

Physsion (4) - Zawadx, flyingcat, Kuroaitou, Dm
Dm (3) - Physsion, theelkspeaks, eljoemo
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175807#msg1175807
« Reply #448 on: January 13, 2015, 03:31:21 pm »
knew for sure wasn't mafia*
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175808#msg1175808
« Reply #449 on: January 13, 2015, 03:33:33 pm »
if I was replaced*

Stupid EBWOP making typos annoying >.>
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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175842#msg1175842
« Reply #450 on: January 14, 2015, 01:25:23 am »


Physsion (5) - Zawadx, flyingcat, Kuroaitou, Dm, bossitron
Dm (3) - Physsion, theelkspeaks, eljoemo
ddevans96 (1) - ddevans96

because reasons.(still have no idea what i'm doing)
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Offline Physsion

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175860#msg1175860
« Reply #451 on: January 14, 2015, 03:26:20 am »
because reasons.(still have no idea what i'm doing)

Did you read the previous posts? Or did you just look at the votes and go with the most popular one?

If I get lynched tonight, two civilians die. Dm gets confirmed as mafia through the sociologist's information, he gets lynched tomorrow night, and another civilian gets nightkilled. By that point, there's only 5 civilians and 2 mafia left.

If Dm gets lynched tonight, only one civilian gets nightkilled (probably me, anyway) and the situation becomes 7 civilians to 2 mafia.

You all know how this ends if I get lynched.

You know I'm telling the truth. I need you to change your votes to Dm.

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175872#msg1175872
« Reply #452 on: January 14, 2015, 10:01:12 am »
Physsion (4) - Zawadx, flyingcat, Dm, bossitron
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...I'm gonna be pissed if my vote turns out wrong. :(

Offline DoubleCapitals

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1175876#msg1175876
« Reply #453 on: January 14, 2015, 12:30:56 pm »
The tables are beginning to turn.

Physsion was lynched. He was a Civilian Thief

Night 6

Time. (To poke qwerter for the new day that is)

Note: Tied votes after all vote modifications = No Lynch, as mentioned. Vote modification/manipulation via secondary roles hence produced this outcome.
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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1176108#msg1176108
« Reply #454 on: January 17, 2015, 12:44:25 pm »
Being an informant was a risky business. ddevans96 was waiting in the black at night for the new report, but instead he received a nasty surprise..

ddevans96 was killed. He was a Civilian Assassin.

Day 7

Time. (To poke qwerter for the new day that is)
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1176109#msg1176109
« Reply #455 on: January 17, 2015, 12:48:08 pm »
:)
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