Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter

[RootRanger]

Oh, how I long for the days when people would think before they vote. Let's take a minute to actually analyze Crockett's argument.

The 2nd policemen won't claim to me. Thus I'm stuck doing something I don't want to do. Everyone please role claim to me, so we can find the other policemen. This is CRITICAL.

Root is mafia. One of the policemen contacted me N1, then role claimed and said he/she didn't want their ability negated as it would be a waste. Only me and this policemen knew about this, and it confirms him as a police officer if only 1 police target me that night. Only one did, so he was a confirmed police officer. He told me Root is mafia.

These two statements contradict each other. The first says that Crockett only knows the identity of 1 of the 2 policemen. The second says that Crockett knows both of the policemen, one who targeted Crockett, and one who targeted me. We already know just from these two contradicting statements that Crockett is lying to try to get me lynched. But just to be on the safe side, let's see if the rest of his logic makes sense.

But since he told me root is mafia, root has to be mafia. If the mafia police's result was mafia, he'd tell me civilian.

There are 4 possibilities, and Crockett is too careless to look at all of them.
1.) The policeman is a civilian, and I am a civilian. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a civilian.
2.) The policeman is a mafioso, and I am a civilian. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a mafioso.
3.) The policeman is a civilian, and I am a mafioso. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a mafioso.
4.) The policeman is a mafioso, and I am a mafioso. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a civilian.
As you can see from the 2nd possibility, the policeman could be a mafioso, trying to eliminate me by lying about my faction.
Let's assume, just for fun, that the policeman Crockett is supposedly in contact with actually exists, and is indeed a policeman.
Either possibility 2 or possibility 3 is the case. But the more likely one is clearly possibility 2. A policeman has a 1 in 2 chance of being a mafioso, while a non-policeman has a 4 in 17 chance. It's more than twice as likely that the policeman is the mafioso, not me.

Thus we'll lynch Root today and the policemen that targeted me N1, and the other police officer Day 3. Since the police officer didn't want to role claim to me, everyone needs to role claim to me to find that police officer.

I would hold off from roleclaiming until Crockett can properly explain himself.

[RootRanger]

Now, for one final point to make. Yesterday, Crockett asked me what color the word "Civilian" was in the private message I received from qwerter. This is exactly what Rule 6 is designed to prevent, and Crockett was cheating by trying to use that sort of information. I refused to answer his question, for obvious reasons. This made me seem more suspicious to him.

Part of the reason Crockett thinks I'm mafia is because I refused to cheat.

Knowing this, do you think Crockett even has any real reason to lynch me? He claims that one policeman targeted me and the other targeted Crockett, yet Crockett also claims that he only knows the identity of 1 of the 2 policemen. I would be hesitant to even believe that the policeman Crockett is referring to, the one who supposedly targeted me, even exists. So, Crockett, let me ask you, who is it?

[iancudorinmarian]

In the first 2 arguments, if you read the carefully, you can see that he means that the policemen who didn't target him is the one that he knows and he doesn't know the identity of the other one (the one who actually targeted him). He means that he didn't get 2 policemen from diplomat ability.

You may want to counterargument this or fix your reasoning.

But yeah, the 4th argument really is kinda stupid, he said in the previous 3 that he only knows 1 of them. Maybe people started to roleclaim already and he knows both policemen now.

Also, the odds of you being mafia are 5/17 actually (there are 5 mafia)

[theelkspeaks]

I am not the other policeman.  I am not willing to make a claim to Crockett as I disagree with his plan.

I think Root's math is bad, because his math could be very easily extended to say that any person is more likely town than mafia by strict mathematical numbers.   As much as I thought Root was town from his Day 1 post, I'm inclined to disagree - his arguments for why the cop guilty on him should be overlooked are kinda suspect at best, and a player of his skill should see the obvious weakness of that argument, and he might actually be mafia that is trying to trick us into believing that.

However, we do need someone to actually come out with the claim of policeman with the guilty.  I'd like the policeman to claim to someone other than CR.  If the policeman is lying and Root is somehow town, we run up the claimed cop with a guilty on root tomorrow, since he's a lying scum.

Note: Given that CR might be mafia, CR TELLING SOMEONE ELSE THE IDENTITY OF THE COP IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

The cop needs to themself claim either publicly in thread or to a member of the town.

[RootRanger]

In the first 2 arguments, if you read the carefully, you can see that he means that the policemen who didn't target him is the one that he knows and he doesn't know the identity of the other one (the one who actually targeted him). He means that he didn't get 2 policemen from diplomat ability.

From my interpretation of the rules, the Diplomat is aware of the player+role that visited him. Wasn't that the entire purpose of Crockett's Night 1 plan?

Also, the odds of you being mafia are 5/17 actually (there are 5 mafia)

I was hoping I wouldn't have to spend more than one sentence explaining this. I am a non-policeman. This has been said by Crockett himself. Of the 5 mafia, 1 of them is a polcieman, which means 4 of the mafia are non-policemen. Of the 19 players, 2 of them are policemen, and 17 of them are non-policemen. Thus, as a non-policeman, my chance of being mafia is 4 in 17. It's honestly not even remotely difficult to figure out, and it's a shame you did not take the time to do so.

I think Root's math is bad, because his math could be very easily extended to say that any person is more likely town than mafia by strict mathematical numbers.   As much as I thought Root was town from his Day 1 post, I'm inclined to disagree - his arguments for why the cop guilty on him should be overlooked are kinda suspect at best, and a player of his skill should see the obvious weakness of that argument, and he might actually be mafia that is trying to trick us into believing that.

The cop who supposedly targeted me, if he even exists, has a 50% chance of being mafia. He is more likely to be mafia than anybody else in the entire game. That is why the cop guilty should not be reason to lynch me. Now, if we lynch the possibly-mafia-cop, and it turns out that he's actually a civilian cop, then I would completely support lynching me, as it would mean I'm mafia.

In past versions of the game, the cop had a 100% chance to be civilian. In this version, it is 50%. The fact that you have overlooked this is disappointing.

How about the "policeman" who found me guilty makes a public role claim? It would only be fair for me to have the right to confront my accuser.

[Elbirn]

Diplomat only knows the role, which is why his plan was kinda dumb.

If Root is a civilian, then we've either found the mafia cop and can lynch him tomorrow as Crockett knows his identity, or Crockett is lying and therefore scum, and so he'll be the lynch.

If Root flips mafia, then we have two confirmed civilians, one of them being our cop.

[RootRanger]

In that case, I apologize for misinterpreting the Diplomat role. I really should have asked qwerter first.

Nevertheless, my point still stands. The policeman who targeted me has a 50% chance of being mafia, which is twice as likely as me. The policeman who investigated me should be lynched, and if he somehow turns out to be a civilian policeman, then I will be lynched.

[Dm]

Wouldn't lynching you first confirm his being mafia/civilian, and on top of that we don't risk losing a Policeman?

[CrockettRocket]

Diplomat only knows the role, which is why his plan was kinda dumb.

If Root is a civilian, then we've either found the mafia cop and can lynch him tomorrow as Crockett knows his identity, or Crockett is lying and therefore scum, and so he'll be the lynch.

If Root flips mafia, then we have two confirmed civilians, one of them being our cop.

Exactly. BTW root I didn't overlook the possibilities at all, i just didn't post them. Ill insert the possibilities you listed.

1.) The policeman is a civilian, and I am a civilian. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a civilian.
2.) The policeman is a mafioso, and I am a civilian. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a mafioso.
3.) The policeman is a civilian, and I am a mafioso. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a mafioso.
4.) The policeman is a mafioso, and I am a mafioso. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a civilian.

Alright! So 2 of the 4 possibilities that YOU listed yourself root, have you being civilian.  50% chance. 2 of the 4 possibilities that YOU listed yourself root, have you being mafia. So their is a 50% chance for you to be civilian, and a 50% chance of you being mafia.

The cop who supposedly targeted me, if he even exists, has a 50% chance of being mafia. He is more likely to be mafia than anybody else in the entire game.

Uh, as I just pointed out using your logic, you also have a 50% chance. Now when we have two players of equal chance to be mafia, we look at the roles of importance.
Politician. and Policemen. Which is more important to protect? Policemen. Thus we lynch root first because hes not the more important person to protect. I will not let the policemen claim publically, because if hes civilian his identity needs to be kept a secret. But I bet you wanna know who the bodyguard is too? Don't you? If I'm mafia I can't play as mafia because bodyguard keeps hitting me. So it makes zero sense for me to be mafia. Roots our best bet and giving up the identity of the policemen is too great. Especially when I don't know who the 2nd policemen is. Imagine this: Our policemen dies first, flips civilian, proving root to be mafia. Root dies day 3. 4 mafia and 15 town left. Mafia has a cop, civvys cant confirm anyone.

Wouldn't you say its game over for civvy's if they can't confirm anyone, and no one is already confirmed besides root being mafia and root dead? Yeah, lets not reveal cop's identity. Knowing this community they wouldnt go for that super risky move of being mafia then telling me you're mafia with you actually being civvy, so I don't even consider that probability bringing your chances of being mafia up to 75%. Vote root everyone... this is tiresome. 

[CrockettRocket]

Wouldn't lynching you first confirm his being mafia/civilian, and on top of that we don't risk losing a Policeman?

It would bring the policemen's chances of being Civilian up to 75% chance if Root is mafia. Then we lynch the other policemen that I'll find through role claims that would have a 25% chance to be civilian on day 3.

[RootRanger]

Exactly. BTW root I didn't overlook the possibilities at all, i just didn't post them. Ill insert the possibilities you listed.

1.) The policeman is a civilian, and I am a civilian. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a civilian.
2.) The policeman is a mafioso, and I am a civilian. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a mafioso.
3.) The policeman is a civilian, and I am a mafioso. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a mafioso.
4.) The policeman is a mafioso, and I am a mafioso. The policeman tells Crockett that I am a civilian.

Alright! So 2 of the 4 possibilities that YOU listed yourself root, have you being civilian.  50% chance. 2 of the 4 possibilities that YOU listed yourself root, have you being mafia. So their is a 50% chance for you to be civilian, and a 50% chance of you being mafia.

This logic is absurd because not every possibility is equally likely.
You could use this sort of logic to say that everyone in the game has a 50% chance of being mafia, which is obviously not the case.

So far, Crockett's suspicion of me comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of basic probability, and the fact that I refused to cheat with him.

Is this seriously what I'm being lynched because of?

[CrockettRocket]

No root. A policemen said you're mafia. Its much more beneficial to civvys to lynch you first, given your role is politician, then react to your role flip rather than vice versa.