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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172042#msg1172042
« Reply #216 on: December 19, 2014, 09:57:04 pm »
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172043#msg1172043
« Reply #217 on: December 19, 2014, 10:00:45 pm »
RootRanger, your argument is bad, you should feel bad.

The chance to be civilian policemen is 1/17.
The chance to be mafia is 5/17.
Alright then, how about we lynch the policeman, if there's only a 1/17 chance he's a civilian policeman? On the other hand, there's a 12/17 chance I'm a civilian, right? I'm simply reaching the natural conclusion that follows from your flawed logic and implications.

Anyway, you seem kinda desperate to keep yourself alive, which is not how you play usually. Each time you were willing to die for civilians to win. Why such a change in attitude.

I guess that's it for my argumentation. The point is, it's a win-win situation for civilians either way.
I am simply trying to optimize the civilian's chance of winning. Sometimes that means Sacrificing myself in order to give the civs a near-guaranteed win. In this case, I would just be sacrificing myself in order to lynch a single mafioso. It would be a lot more effective just to lynch the mafioso and keep me alive.
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Offline Coffeeditto

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172065#msg1172065
« Reply #218 on: December 20, 2014, 01:12:24 am »
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nice

Offline Espithel

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172066#msg1172066
« Reply #219 on: December 20, 2014, 01:17:18 am »
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Placeholder vote to let everyone know that I'm too hard on myself for beating myself because of the RQS that caused all this.

... Now I know how Root felt last time I played mafia with ya'll about me. x.x
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Offline CrockettRocket

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172072#msg1172072
« Reply #220 on: December 20, 2014, 02:02:41 am »
The RQS lead us to suspicion. That made us target root with the policemen ability. If he flips mafia, you're RQS will be very much appreciated.
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Offline kirbylover314

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172077#msg1172077
« Reply #221 on: December 20, 2014, 02:14:43 am »
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172083#msg1172083
« Reply #222 on: December 20, 2014, 03:18:28 am »
As a reminder for those who haven't been paying attention, there is a 32% chance that I am a mafioso and the policeman who targeted me is a civ. There is a 68% chance that the policeman who targeted me is a mafioso and I am a civ. I worked this out earlier and will further explain it to anyone willing to listen.

I think it would be very unwise to lynch me in order to protect someone who is most likely a mafioso.
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Offline flyingcat

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172084#msg1172084
« Reply #223 on: December 20, 2014, 03:21:58 am »
Well, if you flip civ, than the policeman is a mafioso. One for one sounds pretty good right now.
The important thing about a low probability is that it's not zero
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172086#msg1172086
« Reply #224 on: December 20, 2014, 03:25:09 am »
Well, if you flip civ, than the policeman is a mafioso. One for one sounds pretty good right now.
Why settle for a one-for-one when you can kill a mafioso without losing anything from it?
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Offline flyingcat

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172088#msg1172088
« Reply #225 on: December 20, 2014, 03:29:04 am »
This is either a one for none, or a one for one. While the second may be more likely, we still get to lynch a mafioso regardless. Also, Policeman > Politician IMO.
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Offline CrockettRocket

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172090#msg1172090
« Reply #226 on: December 20, 2014, 04:00:07 am »
As a reminder for those who haven't been paying attention, there is a 32% chance that I am a mafioso and the policeman who targeted me is a civ. There is a 68% chance that the policeman who targeted me is a mafioso and I am a civ. I worked this out earlier and will further explain it to anyone willing to listen.

I think it would be very unwise to lynch me in order to protect someone who is most likely a mafioso.
Please, im willing to listen. I have a question though, wise master root. How disastrous, on a scale 1 to 10 ,with 10 being devastating, for the civvy's would it be to publically say whose the civvy cop, when their is a 50/50 between him being mafia or civvy? So if the town wastes a lynch by lynching one of their most needed roles, how disastrous would it be? In your RQS you practically said policemen should get a confirmed bunch and go from there. If you are civvy, and your civvy cop just died, how would you try to win the game? Id also like to hear two more things. If you are civvy, and your bodyguard just died, how would you try to win the game? If you are civvy, and your bodyguard and policemen just died, how would you try to win the game?

I'll repeat the questions that arn't rhetorical.
How disastrous, on a scale 1 to 10 ,with 10 being devastating, for the civvy's would it be to publically say whose the civvy cop, when their is a 50/50 between him being mafia or civvy?
If you are civvy, and your civvy cop just died, how would you try to win the game / what would your plan be?
If you are civvy, and your bodyguard just died, how would you try to win the game / what would your plan be?
If you are civvy, and your bodyguard and policemen just died, how would you try to win the game?

I don't think there is a reasonable answer to these questions, and these are possibilities that could happen if we follow your proposed lynching based on probabilities between town's day 2 lynch and/or mafia's N2 NK on the bodyguard.

Currently your proposed lynch instead of yourself is utter crap, and if its not, I'd like to see you prove it by answering those questions. Your plans could become a HUGE detriment to the town, and any detriment to the town is worth lynching regardless of if they're mafia or civvy. At this point, idc if you're mafia or civilian, your plans can be a huge disaster for town and thus your a detriment. Answer the 4 questions above please for everyone to analyze and judge the plans. Currently taking a random shot a cop when not knowing both the cops could be vastly dangerous to town. When it has game deciding effects like that, I ask for a safer plan.
A world war? Am I invited?
Thanks to skotadi for saying this in chat. Made me laugh pretty hard, and fits with me not getting drafted. :silly:

Offline Espithel

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Re: Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=56988.msg1172091#msg1172091
« Reply #227 on: December 20, 2014, 04:02:42 am »
Okay, so my understanding, is that there is 1 civilian policeman, and 1 mafia policeman.
One policeman targetted crockett. One did not. The one that didn't said that Root is mafia, privately to Crockett.

... So we're lynching Root.
That's the gist, right?

I can figure everything else out as long as I understand that.

 

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