Elements Mafia 44 - by qwerter

[RootRanger]

As I've already proved earlier, it is more likely that the policeman is mafia than that I am.

Your inability to understand probability and ethics does not change this fact.

[Dm]

Huh.

[CrockettRocket]

As I've already proved earlier, it is more likely that the policeman is mafia than that I am.

Your inability to understand probability and ethics does not change this fact.

Lets not post anymore. Im sick of fighting for last word with you. Let them decide, we've put all our cards on the table now anyways.

[RootRanger]

If it really needs to be explained, I suppose I can take a few minutes to do so. If it's truly a matter of life and death.

There are 19 players. 1 is a mafia policeman, 1 is a civ policeman, 4 are mafia non-policemen, and 13 are civ non-policemen.

A given policeman has a 50% (1/2) chance of being mafia.

A given non-policeman has a 24% (4/17) chance of being mafia.

The policeman is more than twice as likely to be mafia than I am.

Does this change because the policeman said I am a mafioso? No.

As explained earlier, the policeman would say that I'm mafioso if either I'm a civ and the policeman is a mafioso, or I'm a mafioso and the policeman is a civ.

Thus, the fact that the policeman tells us that I'm mafia only reveals that one of us is mafia, not which one it is.

Since the policeman is more than twice as likely to be mafia, he is the one who should be lynched.

As Crockett has so far refused to provide the name of the policeman he is supposedly in contact with, my vote shall rest on him.

If Crockett provides the name of the policeman who targeted me, then we will lynch the policeman instead. When the policeman is mafia, we will see that my plan has paid off.

Lastly, I would like to reiterate that part of Crockett's suspicion of me comes from the fact that I refused to answer his question, which asked for the color of the word "Civilian" in my initial PM from qwerter. This was a clear violation of Rule 6. I believe Crockett would be less inclined to lynch me if I had answered his question, but that would have been cheating.

How disappointing that I'm being punished with death for refusing to cheat. I should hope the civilians are better than this.

RootRanger (4) - CrockettRocket, iancudorinmarian, flyingcat, Elbirn
Dm (1) - Dm
CrockettRocket (1) - RootRanger

[UTAlan]

I am not punishing you for refusing to cheat, but even if odds are higher that the policeman is mafia, I'm willing to take that chance in case we can avoid a public claim of a civvy cop.

RootRanger (5) - CrockettRocket, iancudorinmarian, flyingcat, Elbirn, UTAlan
Dm (1) - Dm
CrockettRocket (1) - RootRanger

[theelkspeaks]

I'm not basing my argument on the role-PM-color thing, I agree that's an unethical piece of evidence to try to use, and shouldn't apply.

As I see it, there's two possibilities:

1) The cop who claimed a guilty on Root is mafia.
2) The cop who claimed a guilty on Root is civvy.

These two possiblities ARE both 50% - there's two cops and no way to differentiate (yet).

In case A, if we lynch Root, he'll be a civvy.  We then lynch the cop claim.  This is why I'm pushing to get the cop claimed to non-CR people.
In case 2, we lynch Root and he's mafioso.  The cop doesn't get lynched.

In both cases, we lynch one mafia member for sure.  In case 2, we don't lose the cop.  In case 1, we do.  This is why I think that although the two cases are equally probable, we proceed with case 2.


As for root's question to me about why I don't understand he has a less than 50% chance to be mafia, I actually disagree with the assertion.  Root has a 100% chance of being of opposite alignment to the cop who claimed a guilty on him.  I can't see any way around that.

Therefore if the cop is 50% chance to be mafia, Root is 50% chance to be town (and vice versa, obviously).


PEDIT: Two posts were made while I was typing this. This post is made not having read the two posts above it.

[CrockettRocket]

If the civvy cop claims publically, GG. Mafia wins. Same with bodyguard.
I ask you this: why wouldn't the civvy cop be compliant to role claim to me before I placed a 'bounty' on his head? Ill find out who the other policemen is anyway via role claims so even with me wanting to lynch the other policemen day 3 if root is mafia, the other police officer should've role claimed to me.

Elk, if root flips mafia, will you role claim?
If your answer is no, why not?

Also we can't have the cop claim to non-CR ppl. Im not going to die anyway because of bodyguard. I will 100% reveal who the cop is in 2 mass PMs N2 if root flips mafia. If I fail to do so, I will resign from this mafia and ask kuro to ban me from future mafias permanently. Does that show how serious I am?

[CrockettRocket]

if root flips civilian and only if root flips civilian*

[eljoemo]

If I fail to do so, I will resign from this mafia and ask kuro to ban me from future mafias permanently. Does that show how serious I am?

Only a Sith deals in absolutes

[RootRanger]

Ah, now we get into the more complex probability. It's not difficult to do, just tricky to explain. But I'll do my best.

Under normal conditions, there would be a 50% chance that the policeman is mafia, and a 24% chance that I'm mafia. Since these two possibilities are mutually exclusive, there would be a 26% chance that neither of us are mafia.

We now know that one of us is mafia, which eliminates the possibility that neither of us are mafia. Thus, the new probabilities become 50/0.74=68% chance that the policeman is mafia, and 24/0.74=32% chance that I'm mafia. The fact that the policeman claims I'm mafia makes us both more likely to be mafia than if the policeman had not made any investigation at all.

You can't simply take the 26% chance that neither of us are mafia and combine it with the 24% chance that I'm mafia. That's not how probability works. Maybe an example will help this make more sense to you.

Let's say that I'm thinking of an integer from 1 to 100. There is a 50% chance that the number is from 1 to 50, a 1% chance that the number is 51, and a 49% chance that the number is from from 52 to 100. Then, let's say I tell you that the number is smaller than 52. Would there be a 50% chance that the number is from 1 to 50, and a 50% chance that the number is 51? No, that's absurd. There would, instead, be a 98% chance that the number is from 1 to 50 and a 2% chance that the number is 51. The fact that some of the possibilities were eliminated increases the probability of the rest of the possibilities. Does this make sense to you, elk?

[CrockettRocket]

I believe what root is explaining is the same thing along these lines:
You're on a game show and there are 3 doors to pick from. 1 door has a milion dollars. The host says, to make the chances of getting the million dollars easier, what we're gonna do is we're gonna eliminate door number 2. The new probability for winning the 1 million dollars is now 66 and 2/3% because its almost as if you guessed door number 2 and door number whatever your other guess is.

The thing we both the examples root and I gave, is that we offer a substantial amount of possibilities and then take away some. But with root or the cop being mafia, we can't apply the same logic.

I tell you that root or qwerter is mafia. Then I tell you qwerter is not mafia. That doesn't make it 50% chance root is mafia, it makes it a 100% chance hes mafia. Thus I think his counter argument on probabilities is flawed because something can't be taken away in this small set of probabilities. His logic would work if the possibilities were 3 or more, like 100.

[iancudorinmarian]

RootRanger, your argument is bad, you should feel bad.

The chance to be civilian policemen is 1/17.
The chance to be mafia is 5/17.

I say it's worth it. Plus, CR said he'll reveal that policemen if you turn out to be civilian.

Anyway, you seem kinda desperate to keep yourself alive, which is not how you play usually. Each time you were willing to die for civilians to win. Why such a change in attitude.

I guess that's it for my argumentation. The point is, it's a win-win situation for civilians either way.