Elements Mafia 43 - by iancudorinmarian

[Coffeeditto]

Dm (3) - bossitron, eljoemo, Coffeeditto
bossitron (2) - Fippe94, dawn to dusk
eljoemo (3) - Dm, flyingcat, theelkspeaks
Coffeeditto (1) - mathman101

[mathman101]

2 out of these 5 people are mafia:

• Dm
• skyironsword
• Fippe94
• eljoemo
• bossitron

Sorry for missing that post, I went back and re-read that post and some others, and I can see a better reason for bossitron to be mafia over Dm.

Dm (3) - bossitron, eljoemo, Coffeeditto
bossitron (3) - Fippe94, dawn to dusk, mathman101
eljoemo (3) - Dm, flyingcat, theelkspeaks

[bossitron]

at this point i have no idea what i'm doing.

element: 

Skill: lobotomiser

also i still dont understand fully how all this works.

[Submachine]

Dm (3) - bossitron, eljoemo, Coffeeditto
bossitron (4) - Fippe94, dawn to dusk, mathman101, Submachine
eljoemo (3) - Dm, flyingcat, theelkspeaks

I forgot one crucial strategy point: from Fire, Steal can come useful even if mafia, but Fahrenheit can still mess up our plans. So I should have written Dm's partner's name instead of Dm on the list. :/
Fahrenheit is still on the list, having 2 voting power. Just saying.

More plan parts will be public later. I'm busy now IRL.

[DoubleCapitals]

Vote eljoemo for me, thanks

[iancudorinmarian]

Dm (3) - bossitron, eljoemo, Coffeeditto
bossitron (4) - Fippe94, dawn to dusk, mathman101, Submachine
eljoemo (4) - Dm, flyingcat, theelkspeaks, qwerter

[iancudorinmarian]

They all gathered around another one now. "Even though you claim to be one of us, you are clearly a scum and a criminal. Die." "No, wait, I really am innocent, please! I have no idea what's going on here, I'm really confused!" said bossitron, but nobody believed him. One of them took out a knife and stabbed him. "*cough* No *cough* the one who's really guilty is *cough* him!" He wanted to point out at someone, but he didn't have enough power left to do so.

bossitron died. He was Mind Flayer. ( civilian)

Night 3 will last until

[Submachine]

More details on what i know about said people on the list. In case i die, i think it's better to all of you if you know more. For the next day, use this as a guide.

Spoiler for Dm:

He has 23,5% chance to be mafia with his partner.

Quote from CrockettRocket before he died:

Strategizing with Dm, which is unlike him from other mafias.
We determined the least helpful ability is minor vamp. Since we dont know a mafia element, we're trying to lynch the least helpful role. Darkness claims are [...] and [...], thus we're lynching [...].

Me and Dm decided to make a bet! Dm is betting sub dies tonight, wagering his role. I made a bet saying sub lives, wagering my element. To get more info, Im gonna negate you targetting [...] tonight. Im gonna be targetting sub to make sure I win the bet. If [...] gets Guardian Angel, then i'll just have you target [...] night 2. If [...] gets crusader, then we get information anyway and dont lose a whole night. If I die tonight, lynch dm.

So he had reason to NK me during Night 1.
He made the excuse that i told people that I have potentially precious information, so it would be normal that mafia targets me. However, i only told it to CR and Dm, but CR was confirmed to be civvy next day, so his argument is invalid.

• Every time when a lynch bandwagon started on him, he got extremely defending, which is also unlike him.
• In previous mafia games when he was civvy, he usually started with voting himself, but it didn't happen this time. During Day 2, he did say something about wanting to vote self but this didn't cover why he didn't vote self during Day 1.
• He also jumped on the opportunity to lynch a suspected townie during Day 1, namely Elbirn.
• He undeniable spoke with an angry tone all the time he was defending. This is not Dm's usual style; Dm is always calm, ignorant and sarcastic. However, this time Dm was upset, serious and focused. And even thought his reasons were logical on defense, he didn't contribute anything to town, apart from trying to defend himself (he kept hiding behind his Phoenix role, so I got rid of it).
  Mafia tends to be aggressively defending if they are in the center of attention.
• He also kept attacking my credibility many times, EVEN AFTER i was the only confirmed town member. Mafia trying to cause insecurity among town is only natural for me, and if you make the most reliable information source look unreliable instead of telling him what mistakes should be corrected, then you're hurting town very badly. Which is in favor for mafia.

If he ever turns out not to be mafia, his current Steal ability can be used to get a Phoenix back from a suspected mafia member.

Neither Dm nor his partner has Phoenix currently.

Spoiler for Fippe94:

He has 23,5% chance to be mafia with his partner.

He only told his element, but didn't say much more. He tried to give town a strategy that could have failed very easily.
If he is mafia, he's roleplaying so good that none of you will suspect him ever. That is the reason why he's suspicious.

Spoiler for eljoemo:

He has 23,5% chance to be mafia with his partner.

• He and his partner were contacted by UTAlan during Night 1. So they knew that UTAlan was one leader of the Confirmed Townie Alliance. UTAlan died that night.
• During Day 2, UTAlan contacted both of them with a plan, that could have distracted mafia. However, they never replied to UTA, not even during Night 2. Just because of the long time that passed, I doubt they never read UTA's message. They are either annoyingly inactive or didn't want to reply intentionally.
  The plan never took place sadly.
• Once UTAlan died, they didn't even attempt to contact me.

The messages looked like this:

Here is the plan: [...]. (The plan included namely me, Submachine)

If I'm going to do this, this better work. What if mafia and/or town ignores the plan? I'm willing to do this if you're sure this will work. (The plan inlcuded risking killing eljoemo)

Fair concern. The plan involves Sub, who is a prime target for NK. We have to wait what Day 3 holds.

Anothe message from UTAlan, but to eljoemo's partner only:

I can't fully trust you yet, but i have reason to believe you're civvy. Mafia wouldn't gain much by telling who , and if you were mafia, you'd just probably kill me tonight. (UTAlan died that night)

My instincts say we should lynch Dm tomorrow. He made a bet on that mafia will target Sub, and interestingly enough, Sub was targeted.

I can't claim my element publicly, because that would attract the kills on me.

Sub is nearly confirmed civvy. You should be good setting up a Titanpad and inviting Sub to it. You have to earn his trust.

I repeat, they never attempted to contact me.

Later during Night 2, I sent a message to them, which contained highly important information. As eljoemo said, he only skimmed through it, which makes me question if eljoemo even tries to win if he's civvy. Even though, being on this level of clumsyness is more like a characteristic of town than a characteristic of mafia.

He's still not confirmed, but his team is not as suspicious as some others.

Spoiler for bossitron:

He has 23,5% chance to be mafia with his partner.

They are not confirmed, but they are one of the teams that UTA and I sort of trusted. Mainly, because they showed us their own Titanpad, which was created on November 14, almost right after they could have read their roles and before Night 1 started. This makes them look less suspicious, because it has a really low chance for mafia to instantly deduce that their pad will be accessed by others and create a fake pad right off the bat.

However, bossitron's current partner is a Phoenix, so if bossitron would flip civvy, we would win a durable confirmed townie to the team.
In case bossitron flips mafia, we need Dm to steal his partner's Phoenix role back.

If Dm and bossitron are both mafia, we're screwed. :/

Spoiler for skyironsword:

E has 6% chance to be mafia based calculations.

Let me explain. The only chance sky is mafia is that if ddevans96, aka Aether/Mindgate was the Forever alone townie, which has less chance than all other possibilites.

How can I tell the exact percentages of each people being mafia? Well, for the first time, these numbers have calculations behind them. Sharing the full calculation would tell mafia a probable civvy player, so you have to believe me that I'm right about the numbers.
The only one scenario in which sky's mafia is dd being the FAt.

[Submachine]

Dangit, the countdown was not even over yet and I was writing! 

[iancudorinmarian]

Dangit, the countdown was not even over yet and I was writing! 

don't worry, I ended the day 8 minutes early, but please don't post anything else.

[iancudorinmarian]

"Oh well, it's time to go to sleep. I'm not that important to get killed anyway" said Submachine
"Hello" a mysterious voice said
"Umm, hi, who are you?"
"It doesn't matter, we're here to kill you!"
"Oh well, I guess I am important after all. Pls no."
*stab*

*1 hour later*

"Submachine, we're here to kill you."
"..."
"Umm, Sub? I said WE'RE HERE TO KILL YOU"
"..."
"Oh, wait, he's already dead. Oh well, that makes my job easier"

Submachine died. He was Dune Scorpion. ( civilian)

Day 4 will last until

[Submachine]

The sun heavily moved over the horizon. Like an object, such big as a star could feel what happened.. In the distance, only a soft melody could be heard.

"Tonight i'm bringing DunWall to life,
as I walk on water, through walls of light,
you heard the king as the urchins sing,
revenge solves everything."