I feel like we're being led into a terrible lynch with this recent push on Fippe. Just look at the behavior of iancu and qwerter so far this game - I think both of them are more likely to be mafia than Fippe, and here's why. I'm voting qwerter because he has more votes on him. I'll present my case first on qwerter, then on iancu. And I hope to all the FGs that I'm right on one or both.
iancudorinmarian (1) - Frozengaia
qwerter (3) - Fippe94, skyironsword, theelkspeaks
Fippe94 (3) - iancudorinmarian, Kuroaitou, qwerter
Let's look at what's happened in the last three day phases. On Day 4, qwerter voted for a confirmed PR (Frozengaia) on the very first post of the day. Was he hoping to quickly run up votes on her and get people voting for her that might forget to move votes off of her? It'd be a desperate gamble, but keeping track of who's alive and who's confirmed is a very basic principle of playing mafia from either alignment, and I can't imagine a town player making the mistake of forgetting who's confirmed.
Also, just read his posts.
#231: "The balancing of the existing two wagons does not go well with me". Obviously, the mafia would hate the plan of balancing the lynch wagons, since in a best case for them, it's RNG, and in a worst case, they just die. He knows that the plan would doom him, so he tries a desperate lashing out at the originator of the plan, hoping for a sneaky lynch of Frozengaia.
Of course, the plan backfires when everyone realizes Frozengaia is, of course, confirmed.
#239: "Hmm..., you have cleared?" I can just hear the mafia panicking that his plan to kill root and andre did not in fact chop off the town's information at the head. The sort of massclaim with 12 confirmed townies ought to be utterly terrifying to the mafia, and it was.
As of post 254, we're on the brink of lynching qwerter for his suspicious behavior, but he shifts his vote to Fippe to save his own butt. To be fair, both town and mafia would do that.
Immediately after this, Frozengaia proposes the famous 6-way split. qwerter, despite his previous objections to such a split, decides to participate in it, since it looks like he was just about to be lynched.
The most damning post of them all, in my opinion, is post 273. The 6-way split having been achieved, qwerter should expect that he has a 1/6 chance to die at most, if he is in fact town, yet he asks "Can I die yet?" A town player should not have expected that he would die in that instances, yet qwerter assumes he's dead. I suspect that qwerter believed he'd been correctly pinned by Frozen's plan (given that he was one of the 3 priority targets), and genuinely believed the game was lost for his mafia, and was asking for the sake of hurrying the game along. Given the number of confirmed townies, if a mafia member had died that turn, the game was literally over.
As we all know, Dm1321 died instead.
Day 5 starts, and the new plan from Frozengaia is to split the votes between Naesala and another unconfirmed member of the town. I propose qwerter, based on his suspicious activity the day before, and qwerter self-votes. The most dangerous possible thing in an intended split vote is a self vote (just think about it). When it looks like the split is going to be between qwerter and Naesala, qwerter self votes. Also, remember that qwerter is opposed to the split vote, based on post 231 the previous day. He's trying to leave himself the option to opt out.
When others, including iancudorinmarian, vote on a 3rd option (Fippe), qwerter sees another plan. He leaves his vote on himself and allows a 4-way split to happen. This particular vote of iancu's will come in key in my case that iancu is the other mafia member soon, but first let's talk about the implications for qwerter. Why couldn't he, as I suggested above, merely opt out of the split (which he hates anyway) by unvoting himself? Because he still needs to survive another day, and doing so would have cemented his place at the top of the lynch list on day 6. Furthermore, by having one of the two votes on him be his own, he reduces the chance that a player with a bonus against mafia is voting on him.
Naesala gets the rope, and we move on to Day 6.
Frozen suggests lynching Fippe, Fippe suggests splitting the votes. It's on the day of the deadline, and the votes are split two ways. Who shows up, iancudorinmarian, with a vote on a PR to create a 3rd lynch target, reducing the odds of qwerter getting lynched, and giving mafia a chance to pop a PR without using a nightkill. A clever plan, especially since the lack of posting on Day 6 up to that point may have led iancu to assume that his vote might very well be the last vote of the day.
Sure enough, Frozen catches on and votes iancu for this, but a second vote on qwerter (from Sky) ensures that when deadline passes, qwerter is in fact the lynch. It wasn't the real deadline though! I miss the deadline by a couple minutes because I was working on a PSET and didn't realize how close it was to deadline already, but I don't post, because deadline has passed, and you're not supposed to post after deadline.
d2d decides to extend the deadline,. qwerter is the first to vote after the deadline, and decides to vote for Fippe, this pushing a split majority onto Fippe along with him (and note that his split was on Fippe, not iancu, despite the fact that iancu has just voted for a confirmed PR). And look at how he does it! Post #317, in which he omits Frozengaia's change of vote to his mafia ally iancudorinmarian. Trying to slip a fast one past the town? Possibly.
Finally, Kuroaitou adds a vote to Fippe, but forgets qwerter's vote in his vote count. iancu responds saying "Why do you all keep ignoring qwerter's vote"? He appears to be frustrated that his ally's vote is being ignored, especially since with qwerter's vote included, qwerter is not a lynch target for a split. Finally, note that both iancu and qwerter are on Fippe right now, and appear to be working together to try to push that lynch through.
Now, as for the summary of iancu's other suspicious actions, aside from his collusions with qwerter.
Start, as we did with qwerter, at the start of Day 4.
In post 233, much like qwerter at the same time, iancu is voting for skyironsword, who we now know to be a town PR, though he didn't necessarily know this at the time. Naesala joins iancu on Sky in an attempt to stay alive even after sky is confirmed, however. iancu, at this time, has not yet removed his vote from sky, who frozen has confirmed to be a town PR in thread. Then, in post 266, long after Frozen reveals Sky to be conftownPR, iancu decides to vote for himself in the split vote that's about to occur. Yet again, as I mentioned with qwerter, self-voting in a split vote scenario leaves one a smaller chance of being hit by a threatening target, and gives him the chance to opt out of the split should he feel it's worth opting out of. (given the number of days he needs to survive, opting out is likely a bad decision here, and he doesn't do it).
Fastforward to post 287 on Day 5. The votes are currently split between Naesala and qwerter, but look what iancu does: he adds a third target to the pool of split votes. This reduces the chances that his buddy qwerter gets lynched, and additionally is the same lynch he's trying to push through right now (a lynch on Fippe). A four-way split occurs, with the fourth target being iancu.
Finally, come to the current day, in which iancu voted for a confirmed town PR on a vote that he might have guessed would be the last vote before deadline. This is not necessarily the smartest move the mafia could make, but I attribute it to desperation at having only one nightkill on the previous night. Failing that, he and qwerter team up to try to push through a lynch on their favorite target, Fippe.
I think that qwerter and iancudorinmarian are the two most suspicious players still alive, and one or both of them are almost certainly mafia. My hunch is stronger on qwerter, and there's more votes on qwerter, but iancu's play on the current play is also so, so damning.
I hope I'm right.
