So.
RootRanger, your calculation is impressive indeed, but there are other things we should think about.
From now on I assume that you both are Shards. I'm not saying that you ARE Shards, I'm just examining the possible advantages for the Shard section if you both belong to that faction. (Doing this claim if one of you were Shard while the other one is OP would be a bad gameplay.)
(1) Claiming a Moderator is not counter-claimable by a single player since we have TWO living Moderators. Shakif is a pretty useless role in early-game. It would have been silly to use the skill at Night 1, so, if anyone asked who had you targetted you could answer noone. This is important because even the target of a skill could tell us if a claim would be fake. So, Shakif is easily fake-claimed (in my opinion that's the easiest fake-claim apart from the Moderator), I daresay, in early-game the easiest fake-claim. By the way, the chance for the Oracle targetting an Admin and Shakif is [(1/13)×(2/12)+(2/13)×(1/12)]/2 = (1,28%1,28%)/2=1,28%. That's about 1 in 78. (Excluded the fact that one of the players is a known strategist. Like wow!)
(2) What if someone counter-claims? We lynch either Skyironsword or RootRanger – if we believe the counter-claimer at all! Because, a Non-Gamebot can make a counter-claim so as to produce a nice little WIFOM. So, in the end we may lynch either the counter-claimer or Skyironsword and/or Rootranger.
In addition, RootRanger may have an additional 50% protection if the HP Counter targetted him at Night 1. So, a group of the players vote for him while another group for the counter-claimer he may still evade the lynch!
(3) Even if the worst case scenario happens and one of them gets lynched because someone counter-claims and we believe that one, until the counterclaim arrives, many players PM them their roles. Whoa, free rolefishing for the Shards!
In addition, there are many not-too-active players: 'till a counter-claim more than a day can pass and it's also possible that the player who could counterclaim is not online at all!
(4) I regret to reveal something about you two, RootRanger, but it's necessary and basicly anyone can figure it out sooner or later. If you say, you two are Shakif and a Moderator , the only possible Moderator is Wigurashi, the sane one. If one of you were Eccense, the useless living Moderator it wouldn't hurt a lot to claim a useless role. And, no matter which Moderator is claimed by you if it was a NAMED one, it would be easily counter-claimed!
So, Eccense MUST claim immediately! Especially Eccense is RootRanger or Skyironsword (in this case you shouldn't be afraid of getting Nightkilled with a useless role for the town – remember, I did the very same in the previous game ^_^)
After this claim, if your claim was fake, the real Wigurashi can counter-claim. See below for details!
TL;DR about the points:
(1) It's pretty unlikely that the Oracle has targetted THAT particular two roles.
(2) Even if a counter-claim arrives it's possible that the town will lynch the counter-claim.
(3) The sheer value of rolefishing regardless the possible lynches is enormous.
(4) Not revealing the name of the Moderator is fishy, an unnamed Moderator is not counter-claimable.
What to do now?
(1) If you're Eccense, the Paranoid moderator, claim instantly. Your role is useless and there are more valuable Nightkill targets, so, don't be afraid.
(2) If you're Shakif, the Oracle, or Wigurashi (the latter one is only after an Eccense claim!!!), you don't need to claim, you can simply post: "The Rootranger/Skyironsword claim is NOT possible".
(3) Wait, DO NOT SEND PMs with your roles until the things are sorted out.
Remember: the post was about the assumption that RootRanger and Skyironsword are Shards. If no counterclaim arrives, they are telling the truth and we are lucky indeed with this Oracle-targetting.
In this case, I, of course will also send my PM about my role.
Feel free to vote for me if you don't believe in my thoughts. But, consider this: if I were a Shard (or the OP), it would be MUCH better for me not to send a PM at all and act as if I weren't here at all. (Or if I were forced to PM or claim for any reasons, I still could fake-claim something easy, like the other Moderator which would produce a WIFOM of course. ^_^)
