skyironsword and I are confirmed civilians. We have both been targeted by the Oracle, and our skills and identities were revealed to each other. One of us is an admin, and the other is Shakif. Everyone needs to send us your role, in order for us to deduce who are the Shards and OP Monstrosity.
I realize it is possible that we could both be Shards, or one of us could be a shard and the other could be the OP Monstrosity. So, let's look at a little probability.
There are 7 Gamebots, 2 Admins, 3 Shards, and 1 OP. For the purposes of proof by contradiction, assume skyironsword and I are both Shards/OP.
There is a 7/9 chance that Shakif is in the game. If skyironsword and I were both Shards/OP, then there would be a 78% chance the REAL Shakif would speak up, and we would be discovered to be lying about our claim. Of course, there's also the possibility that Shakif is not in the game. If this is the case - there are 8 gamebot skills left to be given to 7 gamebots - so there would then be a 7/8 chance that the Oracle is in the game.
If the Oracle is in the game, there is an extremely high chance that the Oracle targeted at least one Gamebot/Admin. This probability is (1-(4/12)(3/11)), or 10/11. Thus, if Shakif is not in the game, there is a (7/8)(10/11), or 80% chance that the Oracle is in the game AND the Oracle targeted at least 1 Gamebot/Admin.
So, overall, the chance that Shakif is not in the game AND the Oracle did NOT target at least one Gamebot/Admin is (1-(7/9))(1-(7/8)(10/11)), or 1 in 22.
In other words, it would be extremely improbable that two Shards, or 1 Shard and the 1 OP Monstrosity could lie about being targeted by the Oracle and being Shakif without being proven wrong by the REAL Oracle and Shakif.
Thus, we are almost certain to be telling the truth.
