Elements Mafia 34 - by Elbirn

[dawn to dusk]

Therefore,
the odds of me, Fippe94, Annele, and Calindu being Mafia this time around is ~6% (which, knowing RNG, isn't impossible, but it's unlikely).
The odds of Demagog, Terroking, majofa, xyan, ddevans96, mathman101, dawn to dusk, and 1world24 being Mafia are around ~43%.
The odds of timetock, Legit, antiaverage, Rutarete, killsdazombies, Laxadarap, and Mort being Mafia are 25%.

somebody didnt do their homework...
i wasnt in mafia 33. the only one i have done (other than this) was 32 and in that, i was mafia. just dont start pointing fingers at me with false accusations thats all.

[killsdazombies]

Qwerter got maifa 5 times in a row. Nearly 6 but I made a mistake when drawing up roles and I had to redo them all. Just sayin

[BeefSupreme]

Yeah, sorry Beef, but that statistic is bullshit. Sure, being Mafia on both those two game are 6%; assuming you didn't know who where mafia last game. Since we know that, it has no effect on who is and isn't mafia this game. It's still 25% for everyone. It's like throwing dice. Even if you get a six 10 times in a row, the chance of you then getting a six the 11th time is still 1/6.

The odds of rolling a 6 ia 1/6.
The odds of rolling a 6 10 times in a row is 1/6^10, or 1/60,466,176.
My statistics are fact. The outcome of those statistics, like I said in my post, is subject to RNG.

Therefore,
the odds of me, Fippe94, Annele, and Calindu being Mafia this time around is ~6% (which, knowing RNG, isn't impossible, but it's unlikely).
The odds of Demagog, Terroking, majofa, xyan, ddevans96, mathman101, dawn to dusk, and 1world24 being Mafia are around ~43%.
The odds of timetock, Legit, antiaverage, Rutarete, killsdazombies, Laxadarap, and Mort being Mafia are 25%.

somebody didnt do their homework...
i wasnt in mafia 33. the only one i have done (other than this) was 32 and in that, i was mafia. just dont start pointing fingers at me with false accusations thats all.

It wasn't an accusation; just a mistake. Calm your buns, mr. grumpy pants.

Qwerter got maifa 5 times in a row. Nearly 6 but I made a mistake when drawing up roles and I had to redo them all. Just sayin

That doesn't make the statistics any less true. As I said, it's all still subject to RNG.

[1world24]

Terroking (1) - Demagog
Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme
BeefSupreme (2) - Mort, Fippe94
Mort (2) - Killsdazombies, 1world24
Killsdazombies (1) - dawn to dusk

Have a strong feeling that Mort is a mafia, and if he isn't, I can quickly prove my innocence.

[Demagog]

Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme
BeefSupreme (3) - Mort, Fippe94, Demagog
Mort (2) - Killsdazombies, 1world24
Killsdazombies (1) - dawn to dusk

Just so we don't have to listen to anymore of his statistics.

[BeefSupreme]

BeefSupreme (4) - Mort, Fippe94, Demagog, BeefSupreme
Mort (2) - Killsdazombies, 1world24
Killsdazombies (1) - dawn to dusk

Hm..when Fippe and Demagog are Mafia and the innocents lose, can I say I told you so?

Er, actually, in place of me saying "I told you so," can you guys just do me a favor?
If I'm lynched this round and I'm innocent, would you just go ahead and kill Demagog next round for me? Because he's either Mafia or just likes being counterproductive.
kthxbai

[ddevans96]

Statistics is better than half the stuff the civvies have done for the last five or so mafias, honestly.

[BeefSupreme]

Statistics is better than half the stuff the civvies have done for the last five or so mafias, honestly.

Yes, but if someone actually invests time into a trying to figure out the most logical way to rule out Mafia members, they'll be lynched because "lol let's just randomly kill civs." There's a pattern I see in all these Mafia games:
If you don't say anything, you're dead.
If you say anything more than 2 sentences long, you're dead.
So, either you say "sorry player x" every few rounds and vote to kill them, or die.

Meh, all of a sudden, Mafia doesn't seem quite as fun. You guys way overthink everything...

[dawn to dusk]

BeefSupreme (4) - Mort, Fippe94, Demagog, BeefSupreme
Mort (2) - Killsdazombies, 1world24
Demagog (1) - dawn to dusk

  i like beefs statistics! my vote wont change anything but whatever

[BeefSupreme]

Lol, yayyyy.
Thanks for the vote of confidence, d2d x)

[Demagog]

I will change my vote if you admit your statistics are wrong.

[Laxadarap]

Beefs stats are wrong, at least from my knowledge of it.  However, I think it is just a common mistake and not a vindictive one.  However his analysis of Dena voting on Terro was pretty good, so for these two reasons I won't vote for him. 

On the other hand, I'm not sure what 1world is talking about.  After scanning the abilities multiple times, the only way that I can think of him proving his innocence is either through schroedinger cat, which doesn't reveal main role (I don't think), or through web, which I am assuming is only given to civilians (as it would be OP on a mafia and would make it almost impossible for civy's to win).  Either way, he just painted a massive target on himself (especially if has web).  Only way I can think of his justification for this, as he had no reason to post that snippet is that he is a mafia and he isn't worried.

BeefSupreme (4) - Mort, Fippe94, Demagog, BeefSupreme
Mort (2) - Killsdazombies, 1world24
Demagog (1) - dawn to dusk
1world24 (1) - Laxadarap