Elements Mafia 34 - by Elbirn

[Elbirn]

Night 1

A wave of chaos and mistrust swept the scene. Fingers and accusations flung everywhere, but no consensus made as to who was who. As the cacophony reached it's peak, the God's grew impatient. Another blinding flash lit up the streets; but when it faded away, there were only 19 left standing...

Legit has been lynched!
He was a Civilian of Rustler

Mafia members, you have exactly 24 hours to decide who to kill. If you decide EARLY, the countdown will end and I will continue with the story as expected, otherwise, if you don't decide by then, no one will die.

No posting allowed UNTIL Day 2 begins.

[Elbirn]

Day 2

Fearing another outburst from the Gods, the townsfolk fled to their homes. Barricading the doors with anything they could find, searching their dwellings for something to defend themselves with, anything they could to keep death at bay. Many, like Xyan, kept watch at their windows, ever fearful of what the night might bring. Xyan, however, had made the fatal mistake of drifting off to sleep, so exhausted he was from the days events. The poor mook, he didn't even feel the cold steel pressed against the back of his head, or hear the click of the trigger...


Xyan has been killed!
He was a Civilian with the power of Fallen Elf

Day Phase 2 starts now!

Overtime may be granted if discussion is still ongoing; if a consensus is reached before time ends, day phase will conclude early. Otherwise, each day phase will last 48 hours.

[Demagog]

Our losses don't seem to be too severe, our chances of lynching a mafia are 2/9, not bad. We don't have much to go on outside majofa and Calindu, who didn't follow the voting pattern. That being said, I can't imagine mafia members to be dumb/brave enough to draw attention to themselves like that. Assuming the mafia wouldn't do that, if we make the assumption that they are innocent, we have a 1/4 chance to lynch a mafia member.

I'm voting for Terro until a good lead comes along.

Terroking - 1 (Demagog)

[BeefSupreme]

From my point of view, last Mafia, both Demagog and Terroking both were very active in trying to figure out who the Mafia were here. And, as luck would have it, they were both innocents.
They both made very good points and were basically the main detectives in trying to figure this thing out.

The way that Demagog rushed to kill one of the most active civilians last game makes me suspicious. Seeing as how they were both innocents last game, that makes it more likely that one of them is Mafia this game. So, if Demagog were Mafia this game, it would make sense that Demagog would want to kill someone who is active and actually trying to figure out who Mafia are.

So far, I've seen no reason why Terroking would be Mafia, so why kill someone who could be an asset to us if he is innocent? The only reason I could see is that this is Mafia trying to eliminate the strongest links. Also, let's not forget who the first vote last round was..

Spoiler for Hidden:

Well I'm innocent so we all know what that means...

Terroking - 1 (Demagog)

It's just a hunch, but if you're just going to keep voting for Terro until he's dead instead of actually trying to figure out who the Mafia are, then you're no help to us, anyways.
inb4 Mafia kills me next round

Terroking (1) - Demagog
Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme

[Mort]

Seeing as how they were both innocents last game, that makes it more likely that one of them is Mafia this game.

This is not true, and some other things in your post are based upon loose assumptions.

Suspicion against beef +1

Terroking (1) - Demagog
Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme
BeefSupreme (1) - Mort

And the pattern continues...

[killsdazombies]

Terroking (1) - Demagog
Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme
BeefSupreme (1) - Mort
Mort (1) - Killsdazombies

Or so it goes.

[dawn to dusk]

Terroking (1) - Demagog
Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme
BeefSupreme (1) - Mort
Mort (1) - Killsdazombies
Killsdazombies (1) - dawn to dusk

following the trend ^_^

[Fippe94]

That trend is not gonna work as strategy, if mafia has vote manipulation, they will avoid lynching every time. Sorry ,but I'd rather risk it by voting on someone then letting abilities take over the voting, since mafia is working together, but I don't think anyone else does.

Terroking (1) - Demagog
Demagog (1) - BeefSupreme
BeefSupreme (2) - Mort, Fippe94
Mort (1) - Killsdazombies
Killsdazombies (1) - dawn to dusk

Sorry, Beef, but I think this is a safer choice than spreading our votes to 1 each.

[Demagog]

I vote for Terro every game for two reasons:

1. Treating him as innocent while I was innocent usually didn't go well for me, in my memory.
2. It establishes a pattern that no information can be drawn from.

On some occasions I won't vote for him, and that's usually when I have a strong suspicion that the person I'm voting for is mafia. Until information arises that would cause me to vote for someone I think could be mafia, Terro is who I vote for.

Also, if you go back a couple games to the game that I started as a mafia, you will see that I did not vote in the first round. That is because I know that in order to succeed as mafia, you must not draw attention to yourself. It's particularly true in my case as I have the bad luck to usually be ID'd by the detective early when I am a mafia.

As a civilian, I also know that I must draw enough attention to myself so as to not be killed by the mafia. In the eyes of a mafia, a person with a lot of attention is likely a wasted kill, as they are somewhat more likely to be lynched. They also view people that don't draw attention to themselves as potential detectives/doctors. So, by drawing attention to myself, I lower my chance of being killed by the mafia. My chance to be lynched goes up, but I can only hope that the civilian side knows that this is simply my strategy to survive (because win or lose, the game is only fun when you're playing it).

[BeefSupreme]

If that's the case, then I don't know why people are voting for me and not the silent ones

Seeing as how they were both innocents last game, that makes it more likely that one of them is Mafia this game.

This is not true, and some other things in your post are based upon loose assumptions.

No, it is true. Let me break it down mathematically for you.

4/17 players in the last Mafia game were members of the Mafia. Therefore, both Terro and Demagog had a ~24% chance of being Mafia last game.
5/20 players in this Mafia game are members of the Mafia. Therefore, both Terro and Demagog have a 25% chance of being Mafia.
You may be thinking, "well, then what makes it any different for you, Beef?"
Well, since I was part of the 24% last game that was Mafia, the odds of being Mafia two games in a row are reduced. You can simulate this by multiplying the fractions, which comes out to 1/17, or ~6%.

Now, for Demagog and Terro. Since there were 4 Mafia in the last game and 5 this game, that means that there were 13/17 (~76%) innocents last game and 15/20 (75%) this game.
Their chances of being innocent for two games in a row then decreases to 39/68, or ~57%.

Therefore,
the odds of me, Fippe94, Annele, and Calindu being Mafia this time around is ~6% (which, knowing RNG, isn't impossible, but it's unlikely).
The odds of Demagog, Terroking, majofa, xyan, ddevans96, mathman101, and 1world24 being Mafia are around ~43%.
The odds of dawn to dusk, timetock, Legit, antiaverage, Rutarete, killsdazombies, Laxadarap, and Mort being Mafia are 25%.

THAT BEING SAID,
those are purely mathematical equations and they are subject to the evil and cruel ways of RNG.
I know that RNG is a bitch, and because of that, there probably is one person from that first group that is Mafia.

I would just like to assure all of you that I am not that person. I've done nothing thus far except make observations and act on them, which can only be helpful in a game like Mafia. I would say that, even if I was Mafia, it would be wise of civilians to keep me around to help rat out my teammates until I'm useless. But since this isn't the case and I know just as much as any other civilian, I'm using what I have.

Welp...there's that..

Ah, poo, I'm stupid. Being a teenager and being stupid doesn't mean that I'm Mafia. So that's probably not a very good reason to votekill me. Also, you'd be killing an innocent, so..

[Demagog]

That's not how statistics works, bud. Roles in mafia are independent from game to game. That's like saying "player Y hasn't been mafia in five games, so the chance that he is a mafia this game is much greater than everyone else's."

[Fippe94]

Yeah, sorry Beef, but that statistic is bullshit. Sure, being Mafia on both those two game are 6%; assuming you didn't know who where mafia last game. Since we know that, it has no effect on who is and isn't mafia this game. It's still 25% for everyone. It's like throwing dice. Even if you get a six 10 times in a row, the chance of you then getting a six the 11th time is still 1/6.