Elements Mafia 31 - By UnderneathTheLens

[mathman101]

So there were originally 10 mafia members at the start, 9 FG's and 1 Rogue Elementalist.
2 have died so far: Onizuka(Morte), and killdazombies(Eternal Phoenix).
[maybe Terroking, but his role his unknown]

So there are at most 8 mafia still out there, and there are a total of 15 people still alive.

.....not really sure where I was going with this now, so I'll throw up a RNG vote so I don't forget later.

RootRanger (1) - mathman101

[RootRanger]

Well no, we started with just 6 FGs and a Rogue. 2 died, though I think KDZ's death was a sacrifice to create a new FG. Either that or the Rogue killed him. It would actually be very helpful if UTL clarified this because it would be the difference between facing 4 FGs and facing 5.

Also, the Rogue is not necessarily our enemy. He could be very useful for killing off FGs if he happens to target them.

I'll look over the unfortunately limited evidence we have later. Hopefully we can pull something together.

[Annele]

RootRanger (1) - mathman101
mathman101 (1) - Annele

[mathman101]

Also, the Rogue is not necessarily our enemy. He could be very useful for killing off FGs if he happens to target them.

The Elementalists win if all False Gods + Third Party killing roles are dead.

I think this includes the Rogue as well. yes (s)he could be usefull by killing off the FG's, ...but in the end the civys could not win if the Rogue is still alive.

[Mort]

RootRanger (1) - mathman101
mathman101 (1) - Annele
Annele (1) - Mort
This reminds me of last mafia, day 1

[dawn to dusk]

Also, the Rogue is not necessarily our enemy. He could be very useful for killing off FGs if he happens to target them.

Sorry, but this made me think you're the rogue. You can't be trusted. Again, sorry, but:

RootRanger (2) - mathman101, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (1) - Annele
Annele (1) - Mort

[Elbirn]

RootRanger (2) - mathman101, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (2) - Annele, Elbirn
Annele (1) - Mort

[Demagog]

RootRanger (2) - mathman101, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (2) - Annele, Elbirn
Annele (1) - Mort
dawn to dusk (1) - Demagog

Sticking to my guns.

[RootRanger]

UTL, really man, we need clarification on whether KDZ was killed by the Rogue or he sacrificed himself to generate a new FG.

Unfortunately I think the former scenario is more likely because the Rogue has a small chance of finding the one person in the game who can sacrifice himself. Which means there are still 5 FGs, even though 2 of them have died.

I've been in a lot of mafias before, and 9 Civs against 6 Killing Roles is nearly impossible to win without the Precog. Hypothetically, let's say we take out the Rogue this lynch. The FGs kill one of us, and it's 8 Civs against 5 FGs. Those odds are looking pretty crappy for us. We would have to lynch 5 FGs and only 1 Civ - 5/6 accuracy. Lynch 2 civs, and the game is over. Those odds are almost impossible to work with, just from a statistical point of view.

You guys have to realize that this game is unwinnable without a few lucky shots from the Rogue. I hate the idea that 2 of us can potentially die every night, but we could also kill a FG in both the day and the night. Luck inherently benefits the players with the statistical disadvantage, and this is no exception. The rogue is more likely to win us the game than prevent us from winning.

Do the FGs realize this? Do they know that the Rogue is someone who they have to eliminate for their own safety? You're damn right they do.

Which means that mathman and dawn are the top suspects. I would honestly say that both of them have more than a 50% chance of being a FG, though that's partly because we've lost so many civs already. Let's lynch one this round, and the other the next round. I think Dawn is slightly more likely because he votes for me explicitly because he thinks I'm the rogue (which is incredibly naive given that there is just one rogue in the game) while mathman claims he voted based on RNG, even though he is also going after the rogue. Plus, Demagog tends to know what he's doing, which means we have a second opinion on this.

We're taking out Dawn this round. Next round, we probably go after mathman unless we get some new info.

RootRanger (2) - mathman101, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (2) - Annele, Elbirn
Annele (1) - Mort
dawn to dusk (2) - Demagog, RootRanger

[UnderneathTheLens]

I'm not going to give clarification, because either way it's a "death." I won't differentiate between them. I would suggest you reread the morning post.

Precog is not the only Elemental role that can find False Gods for sure in this game, btw.

[Elbirn]

RootRanger (2) - mathman101, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (1) - Annele
Annele (1) - Mort
dawn to dusk (3) - Demagog, RootRanger, Elbirn

[1world24]

RootRanger (2) - mathman101, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (1) - Annele
Annele (2) - Mort, 1world24
dawn to dusk (3) - Demagog, RootRanger, Elbirn

I am sticking with my gut feeling with this vote since Annele has nothing that makes them trustworthy. Hopefully Annele will happen to be an FG or the Rouge. If not, we will have one final chance if the FG and Rouge kill 2 at night making it 4-6(Depending on what Kills did) to the remaining 6-7 Innos. If we however do manage to kill off an FG, that makes it 3-5 vs 6-7 which can put us back in control and kill off all the False Gods.