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Offline Kuroaitou

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075003#msg1075003
« Reply #300 on: May 28, 2013, 02:46:15 am »
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO- *gurgles and dies*

(Damnit, I fudged up big time.)

Offline Laxadarap

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075012#msg1075012
« Reply #301 on: May 28, 2013, 04:04:45 am »
Damn, so Root actually was a civy? Can somebody give us a count of who is left? (I could do it but I am quite lazy). 

EDIT: I stopped being lazy, lemme know if I missed anybody

Mort
PlayerOa
Laxadarap
Fippe94
Terroking
Justaburd
Mathman

From my logic a couple of days ago, I still don't think Fippe or Mort are mafia.

That leaves Laxa, Player, Terro, Justa, and Mathman.  Out of which, 3 are probably mafia.

I will give my opinions a little later, I would like other people to talk a bit beforehand.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2013, 04:22:44 am by Laxadarap »
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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075013#msg1075013
« Reply #302 on: May 28, 2013, 04:07:17 am »
Sup Kuro, nice weather here underground.

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Offline Kuroaitou

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075032#msg1075032
« Reply #303 on: May 28, 2013, 08:35:31 am »
Sup Kuro, nice weather here underground.

* ddevans sips dead juice

Pass me some. I'm gonna need it to see how this turns out. >_>

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Offline Mort

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075061#msg1075061
« Reply #304 on: May 28, 2013, 01:25:50 pm »
Yay for hunches! (Until someone has a better idea ofc)

mathman101 (1) - Mort

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075089#msg1075089
« Reply #305 on: May 28, 2013, 03:45:20 pm »
mathman101 (1) - Mort
Terroking (1) - PlayerOa

With all the Root/Terro debating and Root innocent, my hunch says Terro. Nothing better to base my vote on :/
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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075217#msg1075217
« Reply #306 on: May 28, 2013, 10:11:55 pm »
Lol of course I was a civ, laxxy.

I follow logic and reason regardless of my allegiance.
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Offline Terroking

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075440#msg1075440
« Reply #307 on: May 29, 2013, 08:25:56 pm »
With all the Root/Terro debating and Root innocent, my hunch says Terro. Nothing better to base my vote on :/

Well, as much as I doubt mathman is a FG, I know for certain that I'm not, and since we haven't got any light to shoot by I'm just going to do this in the interest of self-preservation. Who knows, maybe he was just a very good actor.

mathman101 (2) - Mort, Terroking
Terroking (1) - PlayerOa

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Offline Fippe94

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075450#msg1075450
« Reply #308 on: May 29, 2013, 08:53:51 pm »
Still going with the same hunch as before, but if no-one votes with me, and I still have time before the deadline ends, I might change my vote to not let the mafias control the voting with powers.

mathman101 (2) - Mort, Terroking
Terroking (1) - PlayerOa
Laxadarap (1) - Fippe94

Also, I like how Laxa assumes that me and Mort are not mafia, but he doesn't exclude himself from (what seems to be) his own suspicions :p
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Offline Laxadarap

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075465#msg1075465
« Reply #309 on: May 29, 2013, 09:30:41 pm »
Ok, so I think I held my tongue for long enough. (Also, I spent a lot of time putting this together).

Mort - Honestly not really sure what to think, hasn't talked much, but iirc has voted for mathman quite a bit on his "hunch".  Was one of my "civies", but still a bit iffy.
PlayerOa - Don't have an opinion on prior to vote analysis.
Laxadarap - Well I know I'm obviously a civy, up to you guys to concur with me XD
Fippe94 - Think is a civy due to voting patterns.
Terroking - Has a decent chance of being a mafia, not because he disagreed with root, but because he has not brought a huge amount of information out to the table.  Granted, he did supply us with names and who he used his ability on.  Plus, he knows who a purple nymph is, which is increasingly powerful this late game.
Justaburd - Again, hasn't said much.  Kuro trusted him, but Kuro is dead.  Not accusing him, but not much else to say on him.
Mathman - Talked the least out of everybody, think he has helped the civies about as much as terro has.

mathman101 (2) - Mort, Laxadarap
Terroking (1) - PlayerOa

Voting for mathman this turn, will probably vote on Terro next turn, mostly because math has given us nothing of worth, and at this point probably does not have the potential too. 

Math's votes:
Vote 1: "RNG"
Vote 2: Bandwagoning (voted on jocko)
Vote 3: Voted on himself because he had no info or leads.
Vote 4: "Gut feeling"
Vote 5: Voted on Fippe (who I think is a civy), to prevent himself having make a deciding vote (when one of the votees was mafia)
Vote 6: No rationale at all.  Voted on Justa


As you can see, didn't really use logic at all in this, has given us no information, only post each day was a vote.  Seems kind of suspicious when the only way to win this game is to have the mafia talk and reveal whom they are.  Also, I think I missed a vote, unless he missed voting for a day (didn't notice until I tallied up Terro's).

Terro's Votes:
Vote 1: "RNG"
Vote 2: "Meh Whatever - Voted on UTL (A mafia) and did not vote on Jocko (the seer)
Vote 3: Following Cal's "hunch".  On Mathman
Vote 4: RNG from first round
Vote 5: Following Root's Logic
Vote 6: Presents own logic/hunch, votes for qwerter (who was a mafia).
Vote 7: Again, following Root
Vote 8: Mathman, keep himself alive essentially.

Not much better than mathman, but still, it is better.  Also, he voted on mafia a couple times, while I don't think Mathman did at all. 

PlayerOa's Votes:
Vote 1: Bandwagon on Elbirn
Vote 2: Bandwagon on Mathman
Vote 3: Vote on numbers, no reason specified.
Vote 4: Vote on Qwerter, probably due to Kuro's logic
Vote 5: Voted on mathman (no logic)
Vote 6: Terro - conflict between Terro and Root.

Another thing is the fact that both Terro and Player voted on qwerter (as well as Kuro).  Because of this, I am pretty sure that both are not mafia, and it is one or the other (2 votes on a fellow mafia member is just overkill and unnecessarily risky. 

Justaburd's Votes:
Before start: Claims mafia.
Vote 1: Voted for self
Vote 2: Voted for self
Vote 3: Voted for self
Vote 4: Voted for self.

See a pattern here? Justa always plays somewhat like this, although usually not with this many no votes iirc.  As far as I know, the only thing no-voting does is delay the deaths, meaning powerroles can find out more.  With no poweroles left alive, this is wasted and just helps the mafia.

Mort's Votes:
Vote 1: RNG pattern vote
Vote 2: Helston as a pseudo no vote, says he is against RNG voting (but voted RNG first round)
Vote 3: Helston because dd voted for him.
Vote 4: Voted for majofa because or Kuro's argument.
Vote 5: Voted for mathman b/c hunch.
Vote 6: Voted for mathman b/c hunch.

So actually my previous reasoning for mort/fippe is slightly flawed, and I assumed too much.  If the mafia did not decide a nightkill until later, then Qwerter, Fippe, and Mort would have no reason not to vote on majofa. 

Fippe's Votes:
Day 1: No vote
Day 2: No vote
Vote 1: Bandwagon
Vote 2: Vote on Laxa, following Helston
Vote 3: Vote on majofa, following Kuro
Vote 4: Vote on Laxa, Hunch.  Then change to Root to prevent voting manipulation.  (Also following Kuro)
Vote 5: Vote on Laxa, Still a hunch.

Despite having a hunch that I'm mafia, I won't accuse him of being a mafia XD.  He seems to follow logical arguments and votes along with whomever makes the most sense.  Lets just hope that is me this time.

My (Laxa's) voting habits
Vote 1: RNG pattern-vote.
Vote 2: Voted Oni as a placeholder/novote - Then me vs. Root argument
Vote 3: Bandwagon on Mathman: Don't agree with rationale, but do see need for a bandwagon with vote manipulation.
Vote 4: Vote for Root, didn't like his rationale at beginning.  Changed vote to Oni as he had second most people on him (avoid vote manipulation) and didn't want to lynch a ghost mafia.  Argument with Helston.
Voted 5: Voted on Root, Helston and Kuro both slightly convinced me it was alright to lynch him.  Found him more suspicous than majofa and Qwerter.
Vote 6: Mathman: Still on the fence about voting for Root, but at the moment it tied up the vote, and brought me out of direct danger of being lynched.  Kuro mutated him, changed vote to Root (no qualms about lynching a non-ghost).
Vote 7: My vote this turn.  Based on this post.

TL:DR. 
  • I think either Player and Terro are both innocents, or one/other is mafia.  Both are not mafia. 
  • I think mathman has a pretty good chance of being a mafia.  He hasn't helped us at all  Plus read through Helstons logic earlier, and kind of agree.  Civies are more likely, or at least should keep fighting if they are being lynched.  We want more info!
  • Justa hasn't helped us at all.
  • Mort has just kinda been there
  • Same with Fippe, although I like Fippe's logic a tiny bit better, even though he is voting on me.  I wish you could elaborate on your hunch though :P
  • Laxadarap anything I would say would probably be biased, up to you guys to analyze me. 

As of now, top mafia are: Mathman.  Player/Terro. 
Other suspicious are Justaburd and Mort.

mathman101 (3) - Mort, Terroking, Laxadarap
Terroking (1) - PlayerOa
Laxadarap (1) - Fippe94


Also, Fippe, I don't exclude myself because I am obviously biased.  If I was mafia, would I honestly say that I was?  I can only reliably give information on everybody else, again, it is up to you guys to determine your opinion of me.
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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075492#msg1075492
« Reply #310 on: May 29, 2013, 11:07:04 pm »
Quote from: Laxadarap
If the mafia did not decide a nightkill until later, then Qwerter, Fippe, and Mort would have no reason not to vote on majofa.
Could you explain this statement, please?
I don't quite understand what you're saying with it.

Offline Laxadarap

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Re: Elements Mafia 30 - by Killsdazombies https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=48908.msg1075539#msg1075539
« Reply #311 on: May 30, 2013, 01:11:57 am »
Ok, I was talking about the fact that the FG's nightkilled majofa yet Qwerter, who was a FG voted on him.  Why I initially said that Fippe and Mort were possibly civies is because Qwerter, who was Warden could vote on majofa, and use his ability to nullify it.  If the FG's were planning on nighkilling majofa anyway, then there is no point in voting on him (hence Fippe and Mort are not FG's voting on him).  However, I overlooked the obvious fact that maybe the mafia just wanted majofa dead, and were completely fine doing it via nightkill or lynch.  If this is the case, Fippe, Mort, and qwerter could all be FG's trying to lynch majofa, and when it failed, then he was nightkilled. 

I probably read too far into the situation trying to psychoanalyze.  However, I still doubt that all 3 of them were mafia, as that is just idiotic (for more than half of the mafia members to vote on one person out of 4(?) potential lynch targets).
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