Elements Mafia 25 - Hosted by Mesaprotector

[RootRanger]

Woah woah woah, other than "learned his lesson" I didn't even come close to insulting you

"Learned his lesson" implies that I did something wrong; otherwise, there would have been no lesson to learn. So, you did insult me.

Also, read bogtro's reply as to why we shouldn't lynch OTL.  I happen to agree with him.

Bogtro argues that not lynching OTL will give us information. The information it does give us, however, is not very reliable, since the mafia could just be bluffing. I really don't think the unreliable information is worth having a lower chance of killing a mafia member.

Lynching OTL means we have a higher chance of killing a mafia member (as I explained earlier.)

Not lynching OTL gives us unreliable information that we can't really make much use out of.

[Laxadarap]

Woah woah woah, other than "learned his lesson" I didn't even come close to insulting you

"Learned his lesson" implies that I did something wrong; otherwise, there would have been no lesson to learn. So, you did insult me.
Read whats right beside it, next to the "/" I put not worth it.  This adds in a bit of detail.  You fought it off, you still got lynched.  Maybe you figure its not worth it to try and fight it off anymore? 

Also, read bogtro's reply as to why we shouldn't lynch OTL.  I happen to agree with him.

Bogtro argues that not lynching OTL will give us information. The information it does give us, however, is not very reliable, since the mafia could just be bluffing. I really don't think the unreliable information is worth having a lower chance of killing a mafia member.

Lynching OTL means we have a higher chance of killing a mafia member (as I explained earlier.)

Not lynching OTL gives us unreliable information that we can't really make much use out of.
This is the one part of bogtro's analysis I'm not sure about.  First of all, this is definitely not a higher chance of killing a mafia member, its equal.  ALL of us have an equal chance to be mafia, you could be one just as easily as he is, hell, I could just as easily be one.  If your both civy's, then oh well, mistakes have happened before.  Mafia is all about information.  It takes a couple rounds to get going.  Honestly, look at almost all other mafias.  Generally the first couple rounds are to get discussion going, with a bunch of RNG lynches.  Treat this like an RNG lynch.  You or OTL, it doesn't really matter, the odds of lynching a mafia get higher as more civies go down.  They can essentially get one free kill.  Since the town is leaning toward lynching OTL anyway, even if not this round, if the mafia does it, then it just saves us a vote.  If they don't lynch him, I'm sure atleast one gambler will target him, and they risk killing one of their own members.  Honestly, this vote on you is mostly because you attacked OTL, think of it like an RNG lynch.  If you argue that this shouldn't be treated like normal first rounds because OTL gave something away, its still ok, it adds discussion.  Hell, any arguments over anything are fantastic for the townies.  Including this.

[RootRanger]

Lynching OTL gives us just as high a chance of killing a mafia member as lynching anyone else does. However, if we don't lynch OTL, the mafia can kill OTL if there is no mafia member for two guaranteed civilian kills. If we lynch OTL, the mafia is forced to kill someone they don't have element information on, thus risking that one of their own members dies. Lynching OTL prevents the mafia from gaining an early advantage. And most of us don't want that.

If we lynch OTL, the mafia is forced to risk killing one of their own. If we lynch me, the mafia can kill OTL if he and his partner are both civs, thus safely not killing a mafia member.

I'm not sure how I can make this more clear to you, Lax. But if you want to ignore it, that's your problem.

[Laxadarap]

Ok, came back to this after a short break with a cool head, and tried to remain objective. 
Also, correct me if my math is wrong.
Odds of OTL being mafia - 20%
If OTL is civy, chance that Mafia member is fire - 17.4% 
If Mafia gets a double civy team, our odds go up to a bit under 22% (of next lynch being a mafia).


Pros to lynching OTL - We essentially have a 37.4% chance to kill a mafia member, however this is the same odds as lynching anybody else.
Mafia can't use this information to get a double civy kill. 

Cons to lynching OTL - We don't learn anything at all
                               -  We lose a precious lynching phase in which we have the exact same odds of somebody else being an FG.

Reasons for lynching OTL- He derped
Reasons for lynching Root - He was extremeley aggressive toward OTL (I guess this is mostly just a bad feeling kind of thing) 

Unfortunately, even though I honestly don't like how you talked to OTL (morale compass I guess), its basically leave him alive and hopefully learn something, or lynch him in order to possibly spare a single civy death (62.6%).  Not sure how to attach odds onto learning something, but those are our options.  I would really like some  input from some other members here, but this is about as simple as I can put it.  I'm going to tentatively remove my vote from you unless somebody else has anything to say, however, looks like your on everybody's "suspicious" list for now.  And see, discussion is good. 

EDIT:
Rootranger - 3 - Mort, ddevans96, regen2k9
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 2 - UnderneathTheLens, Annele
Jenkar - 1 - Shantu
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 3 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

EDIT 2: Personally, I would like to see you and Bogtro duke it out, sure we would get some interesting points, as I'm probably missing something.

[Mort]

I think that mafia not getting info outweighs the probability of a double townie lynch.

Rootranger - 3 - ddevans96, Laxadarap, regen2k9
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 2 - UnderneathTheLens, Annele
Jenkar - 1 - Shantu
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 4 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24, Mort
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

[Mort]

Some more questions for mesaprotector:
Is this a reveal or a no-reveal game?
If it's a no-reveal game, do you get notified of your partner's death?

[UnderneathTheLens]

At this point, I think leaving OTL alive may give us more information than lynching him.

Here are the possibilities:

• OTL and his partner are both tourists - 68.8% - The mafia will probably look for this as an easy way out since they guarantee that one of them won't die.

            a. We lynch OTL. Mafia picks an RNG vote. They have a 26.3% chance of getting one of themselves killed, and we still have to wait                  a night for that.
            b. We lynch someone else. We have a 37.5% of getting mafia member. This chance hopefully will be higher, because we can make                  an educated guess.

• OTL is a tourist and his partner is mafia - 14.5% - Lynching might seem nice here, but we can just wait till tonight to see if the mafia lynches him. At that point, we can make a much better guess on this.
• OTL is a mafia - 16.7% - Based on what he said, I don't think this is the case. If he is, then mafia obviously won't kill him, and we can lynch him later if necessary.

Therefore, I believe it's better to wait one night to see what the mafia does, which will provide us with much more information, rather than lynching him now.

To me, Root seems the most suspicious right now.

Rootranger - 4 - ddevans96, Laxadarap, regen2k9, UTL
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 1 - Annele
Jenkar - 1 - Shantu
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 4 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24, Mort
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

[McSod]

We would have won too, except those damn meddling kids and their dog.

S'all I could think while reading that.

Valid point(s) though.
Not a lot of solid information out yet. It's pure heresy.

[Jocko]

Rootranger - 4 - ddevans96, Laxadarap, regen2k9, UTL
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 1 - Annele
Jenkar - 1 - Shantu
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 5 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24, Mort, Jocko
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

What root said.

[Shantu]

Rootranger - 5 - ddevans96, Laxadarap, regen2k9, UTL, Shantu
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 1 - Annele
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 5 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24, Mort, Jocko
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

Gotta equalize.

[Laxadarap]

Rootranger - 4 - ddevans96, regen2k9, UTL, Shantu
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 1 - Annele
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 5 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24, Mort, Jocko
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

Fixed

[PlayerOa]

Rootranger - 4 - ddevans96, regen2k9, UTL, Shantu
Mort - 1 - majofa
ddevans96 - 1 - Cheesy111
bogtro - 1 - Annele
PlayerOa - 1 - Legit
OTL- 6 - Onizuka, RootRanger, 1world24, Mort, Jocko, PlayerOa
Onizuka- 1 - qwerter
helston - 1 - blarp
blarp - 1 - McSod

Root has a point.