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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482375#msg482375
« Reply #264 on: April 17, 2012, 01:13:28 am »
Still abstaining from voting.
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Offline Nepycros

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482376#msg482376
« Reply #265 on: April 17, 2012, 01:18:18 am »
RootRanger ( 8 ) - Terroking, whatifidogetcaught?, Noobiecakes, UnderneathTheLens, Pineapple, qwerter, Laxadarap
Terroking (2) - RootRanger, Annamall

Retracting my vote until more meta happens.
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Offline UnderneathTheLens

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482377#msg482377
« Reply #266 on: April 17, 2012, 01:38:23 am »
RootRanger (7) - Terroking, whatifidogetcaught?, Noobiecakes, UnderneathTheLens, Pineapple, qwerter, Laxadarap
Terroking (2) - RootRanger, Annamall

Retracting my vote until more meta happens.

Fixed.

Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482378#msg482378
« Reply #267 on: April 17, 2012, 01:40:14 am »
Ok, after lengthy chat discussions, I'm getting my main points out on the forum.
As we all know, Terro's story contradicts mine, so how would you guys know who to vote for? Well, here's a little help to get you started.

My story is flawless. No one has found a contradiction in it. And do you guys know why? It's true! Come on here. The only semi-decent argument that people have brought up is that they claim it was a questionable move to ally with Terro without having confirmed him. At the time, it looked like a decent move. We needed an experienced player, and Terro was a fantastic choice. Some say it was risky, but there was actually very little risk involved because Terro never learned who the gambler was. While the benefit was that our alliance had a 4th member to help us with voting (only if we needed it) and help us with some of the riskier jobs, such as being gambled with a potential FG.

As for Terro's story, really, I can't say the same. His previous quotes contradict what he has said. Originally, he said he was gambled with Oni. Then later, he says that he actually wasn't gambled, and instead the seer he claims to be allied with had already known Oni was a FG (and kept it silent?) No matter, whose side you believe, you can't deny the fact that Terro lied to us. Also, let's put ourselves in the Seer's shoes for a minute here. Terro claims that the seer already had confirmed a civilian in Round 1 and then found Onizuka to be a FG in Round 3. So then, why wouldn't the Seer have the confirmed civilian announce Oni as a FG? But instead the Seer decides that he has to wait for Terro to enter the picture, and then have Terro instead announce the FG? That's purely a waste of two rounds, and I really don't see the logic in it. So now, Terro has not only lied to us, but his story is more than just questionable; it's pretty sketchy.

Of course, it doesn't stop here. As we found out today, Terro doesn't actually know the mechanics of how the Seer works. Believe it or not, he was surprised to find that the Seer's role could only be used every other round. The quotes are in the chat logs. Go back to them if you want. Now, my question would be, how would someone that has been closely allied with the Seer not even know the mechanics of the Seer? Considering that he thought the Seer worked every round, wouldn't he question the Seer for using his role only 3 times in 5 rounds? This would then cause him to figure out that the Seer instead can use its role only every other round. But this is not what happened. Terro never learned the Seer's mechanics until it was too late for him, and he announced it after when he claimed to have been Seer'ed.

Sorry to be so brutal, Terro, but people with such a large chance at being FGs really need to go down.

Vote how you want, or even don't vote if you aren't confident.
But all the evidence you'll need is here.
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Offline whatifidogetcaught?

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482381#msg482381
« Reply #268 on: April 17, 2012, 01:48:40 am »
Everybody, go with your gut instinct. IF we accidentally vote for the wrong guy, guess what? WE CAN VOTE FOR THE OTHER ONE. Don't act like it is just a one turn thing!
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482387#msg482387
« Reply #269 on: April 17, 2012, 01:59:12 am »
Everybody, go with your gut instinct. IF we accidentally vote for the wrong guy, guess what? WE CAN VOTE FOR THE OTHER ONE. Don't act like it is just a one turn thing!
If we vote for the wrong guy, we lose a turn of lynching. This puts us a round behind, which is equal to losing 2 civs we didn't have to have killed. That's definitely not a risk we can take in such a close game.
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Offline Terroking

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482393#msg482393
« Reply #270 on: April 17, 2012, 02:06:38 am »
Everybody, go with your gut instinct. IF we accidentally vote for the wrong guy, guess what? WE CAN VOTE FOR THE OTHER ONE. Don't act like it is just a one turn thing!
If we vote for the wrong guy, we lose a turn of lynching. This puts us a round behind, which is equal to losing 2 civs we didn't have to have killed. That's definitely not a risk we can take in such a close game.

Once I again I must point out since people don't seem to get it that I can not be lynched this round. Even if the votes would lead to that I have a Witness protecting me, who is another civ confirmed by the Seer.

So, voting for me is wasting a round of lynching. Voting for root will get us somewhere, incidentally the same place we would reach should people be gullible enough to believe Root a second time and try to lynch me then. However, in 3 rounds I imagine it will be too late.
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Offline whatifidogetcaught?

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482394#msg482394
« Reply #271 on: April 17, 2012, 02:07:03 am »
Ok. Well, keep trying to sway the people then.
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482408#msg482408
« Reply #272 on: April 17, 2012, 02:26:01 am »
Really, Terro, I feel like you're just using the Witness excuse because you realize you could likely die this round. In reality, the chances are actually pretty small that you have a witness protecting you. It's just another one of your lies.
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482410#msg482410
« Reply #273 on: April 17, 2012, 02:28:53 am »
My raw dissection:

In the end, one of four scenarios can happen, although some might be near-impossible.

If both are truthful, the safer lynch is Root, because Terro's claimed witness wastes a turn.

If Root is truthful and Terro is lying, the safer lynch is Terro, so one more civilian is spared despite the witness.

If Terro is truthful and Root is lying, the safer lynch is Root, obviously.

If both are lying, the safer lynch is Terro, because a fake seer is worse for the civilians than a fake doctor.

Terro's story makes more sense when both are compared side by side, but Root has made less slip-ups in his defenses.

One is likely to be killed by the false gods after we kill the other.

In short, it doesn't matter who we kill. They're both screwed anyways.

Point all all the flaws in this you want, this is the most basic it can get, and I'm sticking with it.
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Offline Nepycros

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482413#msg482413
« Reply #274 on: April 17, 2012, 02:32:04 am »
Really, Terro, I feel like you're just using the Witness excuse because you realize you could likely die this round. In reality, the chances are actually pretty small that you have a witness protecting you. It's just another one of your lies.

The chances are fairly slim that
1) You ARE the doctor, who tried to make an alliance with a random, unconfirmed player.
2) You happened to team up with BOTH the Precog and the Gambler at the same time.

:|
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 24 - Hosted by kdz https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=37985.msg482419#msg482419
« Reply #275 on: April 17, 2012, 02:41:39 am »
1) You ARE the doctor, who tried to make an alliance with a random, unconfirmed player.
I've explained this already. Terro would have been a very valuable teammate, and there was little risk involved.

2) You happened to team up with BOTH the Precog and the Gambler at the same time.
A gambler targeted me likely because I'm more experienced than the average player here. I don't want to say too much as it might give you hints about who this gambler is, which is something I can't give you. As for how the gambler teamed up with a precog, it is a little lucky, but keep in mind there are possibly multiple gamblers and precogs as well as Fallen Elfs to mutate people with a role they are not happy with.

My story is not that far fetched, and I think you guys can figure out why. And Terro? He's made some major slips, as I've explained before.
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