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QuantumT

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272419#msg272419
« Reply #552 on: February 17, 2011, 04:51:54 am »
Quote from: Skydaemon link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg290991#msg290991 date=1297918183
Quote from: QuantumT link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg290988#msg290988 date=1297917741
Since I didn't know the Con Artist was in play and Terro did, Terro is the one who should have been targeted, because even if I was the FG you could get me with the con artist.
Which is a good point, but terro was fairly trusted and you weren't.
I warned everyone against being too trusting...

You let trust get in the way of making the strategically sound decision. :P

Skydaemon

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272432#msg272432
« Reply #553 on: February 17, 2011, 05:24:03 am »
Quote from: QuantumT link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg290992#msg290992 date=1297918314
I warned everyone against being too trusting...

You let trust get in the way of making the strategically sound decision. :P
What was supposed to happen:
Strategically what was supposed to happen was that majofa was supposed to trade 7wave (and take the additional con artist (or possibly vulture) from an inactive), and we were supposed to kill you.  That would've left us with 2 con artists, 1 vulture, complete knowledge of job roles, and one fewer person outside the group.  The group was quite large, there was time to kill the few outsiders who weren't inactive, and then turn attention inward.  We had arranged to knock most of them off in one round if the civy's all carried out the plan.

What actually happened:
Nilsieboy chose that moment not to cooperate in protecting civy's against an FG kill with armagio (he was an outsider, it would protect someone valuable we'd lose, as well as speeding up the moment we could finish the outsiders and turn inward), along with majofa simultaneously stealing the immortality instead of the vulture.  That was followed by the inactive kill on 7wave, loss of tradesman with my death as another result of the majofa trade (which was a valuable tool also), and then finally getting around to killing quantum.  The delay caused by needing to kill nilsieboy (instead of him using armagio), and then the 2 rounds on majofa, ended up growing the vulture to lethal status before anybody dealt with it.

Strategically the breaking of the vulture triangle we'd set up should've been dealt with right away, but there were too many people doing their best to look like they needed killing.

Skydaemon

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272444#msg272444
« Reply #554 on: February 17, 2011, 05:39:43 am »
I should point out, that the round nilsieboy got lynched, him being targetted was actually a threat to get him to use his armagio.  It was a simple choice, use the ability and we all change vote and lynch quantumT instead, or refuse and die right there.  (Not using armagio when agreeing to, means he'd be lynched the round after betrayal.) 

It was being offered by shiningsword, who had the ability to shift the vote with only 1 other person helping.  I was paying close attention, but was feigning afk'ness for a while because majofa was simultaneously making his moves via pm's at that point - which I was discussing with shining in real time while it happened.

That set the plan back a round when nilsieboy didn't indicate agreement.

QuantumT

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272445#msg272445
« Reply #555 on: February 17, 2011, 05:41:44 am »
While what happened earlier may have screwed up plans a bit, the game still wasn't lost. The triangle still existed, but 2 of the 3 members had to be innocent.

Shining was known to be innocent, so that leaves the lynch choice at either terro or myself. Here are the 2 possibilities in a failed lynch.

I'm the FG, and you lynched terro.

This would be bad, but I had no idea the triangle even existed in the first place, so even though you lynched the innocent terro, my chances of hitting the con artist are 1 in 4. Odds are you can kill me next round.

Terro's the FG, and you lynched me.

This basically gives the game to Terro, because Terro knows shining is the con artist, so by lynching me you give him the opportunity to take out the only 2 people that can stop him from winning at the same time.

Offline majofa

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272446#msg272446
« Reply #556 on: February 17, 2011, 05:42:41 am »
I'll say it again, I wasn't in any groups.

Skydaemon

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272470#msg272470
« Reply #557 on: February 17, 2011, 07:13:22 am »
Quote from: QuantumT link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg291019#msg291019 date=1297921304
I'm the FG, and you lynched terro.

This would be bad, but I had no idea the triangle even existed in the first place, so even though you lynched the innocent terro, my chances of hitting the con artist are 1 in 4. Odds are you can kill me next round.

Terro's the FG, and you lynched me.

This basically gives the game to Terro, because Terro knows shining is the con artist, so by lynching me you give him the opportunity to take out the only 2 people that can stop him from winning at the same time.
Well, I was long dead by the time they got around to lynching you.  The point those plans are described was the round I died in.  What happened after that was beyond me.

I should point out that shining's role was not well known.  Before I died, only shining, myself and terroking knew shining's role.  Just before I died I also told world when I gave him the complete list of roles as a backup to shining. 

Unfortunately, after I died, only shining and terroking were aware that terro knew about shining's ability, and that it was dangerous.  So, only shiningsword had any idea that terro knew something you didn't in the round they lynched you.  You're saying it was poor strategy to kill you that late, but only 1 civy (shining) had that info.  They all knew you were an outsider avoiding confirming his vulture skill, but only one living civy had the info to know there was any danger to not lynching terro first at that point.  To every other living civy, you looked like a hands-down better choice.

As far as I can tell, they carried out the previous plan to kill you when they got the chance (except that original plan was to kill you just before the ability grew enough to dominate, and to preserve the triangle through majofa - who didn't cooperate).

When those plans were made (the round I died) there were 5 skills that could interfere: 1 tradesman, 2 con artist (one being inactive but tradeable in 7wave), and 2 vultures.  In addition, the vulture wasn't big enough to dominate yet.  Killing you right then while preserving the triangle would have been a good choice.  If we had no suspects, taking out the triangle would've been strategically sound.  Killing you before it was dangerous was the start of that.  Back then, killing you wasn't actually a big deal because the vulture wasn't big enough.  That obviously changed by the time they finally killed you.  And plus, we wanted to complete the job info, which we got as a side benefit to offing you instead of terro back then.

---

The other issue with assuming quantumT didn't know about the other vulture was that the forums themselves contained the info about the second vulture.  There was one vulture to start, and demagog declared he'd self-mutated into a second right on the forums.  That was the ability terro took with tradesman.  Terro never even would've been a vulture if that hadn't been posted publically.  For that matter, I was discussing with terro about what he should trade for (he was asking if he could take my immortality, then dema posted about his vulture ability), so I even helped create him as a vulture more or less.  So, assuming quantumT didn't know about the second vulture, relied on him not adding up publically declared roles for himself.  You may not have known who the second vulture was, but the only really secret role was the con artist in shiningsword.

---

For majofa - that's true, you were one of the few outsiders, but you either were going to join after a few rounds of earning moderate cred, or you'd have been lynched as one of the 3 (of 13) active outsiders.  That's what contacting you was all about.  Either you could've protected someone with armagio, which was the first reason I contacted you (and taken yourself off the table); or later when you became tradesman, you could become another side of the vulture triangle as we removed the other outsiders.  We were either going to make you useful or kill you off.  You pretty much made the choice for us though.

I still can't figure out why you'd take my skill as a civy.  You had to know I'd try to kill you when I found out the following round (even if it was at day end).  And you also had to know how suspicious that would make you look.  The only way it made sense was if you thought I would be dead the following round, which you shouldn't have expected unless you were an FG.

The kicker is, even if I had died without speaking, the group all knew nilsieboy had given you tradesman (hence why he was now armagio), and when my body showed up with tradesman ability instead of my claimed immortality, they'd all immediately know you took it from me, opening a window for my sudden death. 

If I died, you'd be next, innocent or not.  If I lived, I'd be leading the mob to your door.  How did you expect to get away with it?

Offline majofa

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272474#msg272474
« Reply #558 on: February 17, 2011, 07:22:32 am »
....and how would that make me the FG?

The problem was your group was too confident that they had complete control of the game. You thought you could just use everyone else. And as QuantumT has already stated, you never looked at your own circle for a traitor.

QuantumT

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272491#msg272491
« Reply #559 on: February 17, 2011, 07:50:31 am »
Quote from: majofa link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg291051#msg291051 date=1297927352
....and how would that make me the FG?

The problem was your group was too confident that they had complete control of the game. You thought you could just use everyone else. And as QuantumT has already stated, you never looked at your own circle for a traitor.
Basically this. You expected us to follow along with your grand plans, but you guys never told us what was going on at all.

Quote from: Skydaemon link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg291046#msg291046 date=1297926802

Well, I was long dead by the time they got around to lynching you.  The point those plans are described was the round I died in.  What happened after that was beyond me.

I should point out that shining's role was not well known.  Before I died, only shining, myself and terroking knew shining's role.  Just before I died I also told world when I gave him the complete list of roles as a backup to shining. 

Unfortunately, after I died, only shining and terroking were aware that terro knew about shining's ability, and that it was dangerous.  So, only shiningsword had any idea that terro knew something you didn't in the round they lynched you.  You're saying it was poor strategy to kill you that late, but only 1 civy (shining) had that info.  They all knew you were an outsider avoiding confirming his vulture skill, but only one living civy had the info to know there was any danger to not lynching terro first at that point.  To every other living civy, you looked like a hands-down better choice.
Note that shining and I would have been all it took.

And I only looked like the better choice because you had been setting me up to be that for several rounds.

Quote
The other issue with assuming quantumT didn't know about the other vulture was that the forums themselves contained the info about the second vulture.  There was one vulture to start, and demagog declared he'd self-mutated into a second right on the forums.  That was the ability terro took with tradesman.  Terro never even would've been a vulture if that hadn't been posted publically.  For that matter, I was discussing with terro about what he should trade for (he was asking if he could take my immortality, then dema posted about his vulture ability), so I even helped create him as a vulture more or less.  So, assuming quantumT didn't know about the second vulture, relied on him not adding up publically declared roles for himself.  You may not have known who the second vulture was, but the only really secret role was the con artist in shiningsword.
I suspected there was another vulture, but I had no way of know how many times it had been traded or who it was. Again, shining knew this and didn't do anything.

I had also been told that I was the only vulture left. So your group not only misplayed, it prevented me from having any chance at all of playing correctly.

Quote
For majofa - that's true, you were one of the few outsiders, but you either were going to join after a few rounds of earning moderate cred, or you'd have been lynched as one of the 3 (of 13) active outsiders.  That's what contacting you was all about.  Either you could've protected someone with armagio, which was the first reason I contacted you (and taken yourself off the table); or later when you became tradesman, you could become another side of the vulture triangle as we removed the other outsiders.  We were either going to make you useful or kill you off.  You pretty much made the choice for us though.

I still can't figure out why you'd take my skill as a civy.  You had to know I'd try to kill you when I found out the following round (even if it was at day end).  And you also had to know how suspicious that would make you look.  The only way it made sense was if you thought I would be dead the following round, which you shouldn't have expected unless you were an FG.

The kicker is, even if I had died without speaking, the group all knew nilsieboy had given you tradesman (hence why he was now armagio), and when my body showed up with tradesman ability instead of my claimed immortality, they'd all immediately know you took it from me, opening a window for my sudden death. 

If I died, you'd be next, innocent or not.  If I lived, I'd be leading the mob to your door.  How did you expect to get away with it?

Again, why do you think you can dictate strategy to us when you don't tell us anything? When you remove us from the loop, you also absolve us of all blame. Your group took all the responsibility, and you blew it.

Skydaemon

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272492#msg272492
« Reply #560 on: February 17, 2011, 08:12:33 am »
Kakerlake actually presented the best evidence for terroking's guilt by far.  Faulty RNG.

The game picked FG's at intervals of 7 with the last selection being the last player since there wasn't enough (position 2,9,16,22).  You should probably look into that for next game.


Skydaemon

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272544#msg272544
« Reply #561 on: February 17, 2011, 11:05:43 am »
Quote from: QuantumT link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg291068#msg291068 date=1297929031
And I only looked like the better choice because you had been setting me up to be that for several rounds.
Actually part of this was terroking's masterful play.  Some things just don't add up for him being an FG.

As an example, here's what happened when shiningsword was attacked but lived, the act that made him a "known innocent":

1) world emails some of our group asking for advice on whom to protect - shining wasn't on that email, but terroking was
2) I reply to world, telling him that myself and shining are probably most likely targets because we were driving after RR.  I point out that since I'm immortal, I don't need the protection anyway.  Terroking is copied on the reply and knows that shiningsword is the next protectee of the doctor.  Shiningsword himself does not know he's on protection though.
3) world puts shining on protection
4) A round goes by and terroking tries to kill shiningsword, and fails.  In effect, not only did terroking attack someone he presumably had the info to know was protected (while the doctor was simultaneously vulnerable), he also created a known innocent in shiningsword, who was even more convincing since shining didn't know he was protected during the attack.

So go figure.  Not only did he waste a round of FG kill, but he created the known innocent we needed so much.  It's stuff like this which points to terro maybe being trustworthy.  It was either an accidental thing, or a masterstroke.

QuantumT

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272550#msg272550
« Reply #562 on: February 17, 2011, 11:17:55 am »
With the Divine Prophet and the Doctor, it didn't really matter who Terroking targeted. The pair was going to protect whoever it was regardless. He only confirmed shining was innocent, which was an assumption you guys were all blindly following anyway.

Skydaemon

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Re: Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies! https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg272551#msg272551
« Reply #563 on: February 17, 2011, 11:28:17 am »
Quote from: QuantumT link=topic=http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20278.msg291135#msg291135 date=1297941475
With the Divine Prophet and the Doctor, it didn't really matter who Terroking targeted. The pair was going to protect whoever it was regardless.
Nah, as far as I know, we never got any updates from the divine prophet, and terro would've been on the list that ended up with that info anyway.

 

blarg: