Elements mafia - 15 - Run by killsdazombies!

[ShiningSword]

now majofa, if you need a briefing, well on one side world was attacked but survived, which proofs he is innocent. On related news, we are looking for the doctor and the armagio. All job roles should be Pm'd to world. On non related news:
Shantu - 2 (Terroking, nilsieboy)
majofa - 1 (RavingRabbid)
RavingRabbid - 6 (Kakerlake, 1world24, thenewguy, majofa,ShiningSword,Shantu)
QuantumT- 1 (Skydaemon)
EDIT:ninja'd by shantu.

[1world24]

this is the current list of who is alive1.Dragoon1140
4.appawesome
5.majofa
8.nilsieboy
9.Ravingrabbid
10.Shantu
12.Shiningsword
14.1world24
16.Terroking
17.Thenewguy
18.Quantumt
20.skydaemon
21.kakerlake
And this is who is on my suspect list4.appawesome
8.nilsieboy
9.Ravingrabbid
18.Quantumt
21.kakerlake

[Skydaemon]

BTW shining, I tried to send you a pm when I was changing my vote, but your inbox is full.  Would be a good idea to empty that before the day ends.

Anyway, as for my vote above, I was thinking given the missing roles and quantumt's attempt to delay the sharing of roles probably means he's both an FG and a vulture.  Plus, killing him teaches us his role even if I'm wrong about that.

[1world24]

and maybe make 30 posts so you can have up to 50 messages

[QuantumT]

BTW shining, I tried to send you a pm when I was changing my vote, but your inbox is full.  Would be a good idea to empty that before the day ends.

Anyway, as for my vote above, I was thinking given the missing roles and quantumt's attempt to delay the sharing of roles probably means he's both an FG and a vulture.  Plus, killing him teaches us his role even if I'm wrong about that.

I'm delaying giving up my role because my question about whether or not world was guaranteed to be innocent was never answered by kdz. I don't want to give up my role to somebody could technically be an FG.

[ShiningSword]

Quantum, if you want to learn something, look at other mafia games. It is very clear there. In many times it was clarified.
Sky, im leaving it empty right now.

[Skydaemon]

I know quantumT had his reasons.  But, I suspect you're a vulture due to voting patterns of not only you, but of appawesome as well (he is probably the liar).

So why would a vulture not be eager to vote - because by voting his power might be discovered since it becomes increasingly hard to hide.  It's fairly easy to determine who it is if he's voting.

FG scenario:
Delaying gives the vulture a powerful vote, which if you're an FG means you can auto-win the game if you ever get to a point where you and the other FG have the vote power to control lynchings.  A time not far off.
Civy scenario:
Delaying gives a powerful vote, which means you can control lynchings, but FGs can still knock you off whenever they want, which means you can only use it once before they take you out.

In other words, it's not terribly beneficial for a civy to hide their vote until it was too late, but it is potentially a game-winner for an FG to do that.  Especially if you manage to knock off the con artist (probably 7wave until he gets traded).

I also can't think of a reason why delaying benefits civy's overall.  Operating in the dark means FGs know the important info (who they are and what they can do), and civy's can't combine their skill usage.  I don't think delaying helps civy's.  Granted world could be a really clever FG, but I think we've lost if that is true already anyway.  Given that civys benefit from skill sharing more than FGs, I still see it as a good choice.

There would be a real danger if our important roles like gambler and priest etc were still unknown, but at this point there aren't a lot of dangerous roles to an FG.  If they couldn't locate the doctor, their next best choice is to kill off the vulture (to give them hope of shifting a lynching).

So, killing QuantumT removes a potential game winner for FGs if he's on their side.  Tells us QuantumT's role even if he is a civy (giving us almost complete info), and allows us to combine our skill usage.

The danger of allowing an FG vulture to gain in power outweighs the danger of everyone's secondary role being known at this point.  A couple of rounds and a con artist kill by FGs and they'd be unstoppable if they had a vulture.

[Skydaemon]

Just doing some calc's here.  I think after this day is 11 people will be dead, with probably 2 FGs remaining.

If one of those FGs is a vulture then his vote will be worth 5.5 votes.  That's 6.5 votes between the two of them, with 9 civy's remaining.  I think that puts them within one round of winning the game if they manage to kill 7wave (con artist).

[QuantumT]

I'm still not sure why you're forcing the issue. All I wanted to do was wait for a rules clarification. Is that really so bad?

The reason I ask is because I've played mafia games before where self targeting was a perfectly legitimate tactic. I had a friend who managed to come back from being the only mafia when there were 9 people left because he convinced people that he was the cop by getting the doctor to save him from killing himself. Everyone made exactly the same assumption you're now asking me to make, so you'll have to forgive me for being a bit weary.

And what's been odd with my voting pattern?

First round I RNG voted like a ton of people did. Not that I can really claim any skill in this, but this means I did not vote to lynch the single most important civilian.

Second round I didn't vote for Dema because I thought he was innocent (and I was right).

Third round I voted for Dragoon (as did 5 of other 8 people that voted) because he was the village idiot and we wanted his power.

[Skydaemon]

Voting wise, the only suspcious part is not voting this round so far.  The bonus is big enough we could fairly easily identify the vulture if they vote now.  That's all.

As for your points about self-targetting.  That's completely true.  If that's what happened here I think we're in big trouble already.  Your point has merit.  However, the odds are in our favor based purely on when he was picked.  (At the beginning of a mafia game, the odds are you'll lynch an innocent, but also that if you pick one single person to trust, they'll be innocent as well.)

However, if we made a mistake on world, that can still be fixed in a round or two if we suddenly get suspicious.  If world is innocent, FG's will probably knock him off anyway, as it's not good to have "known" innocents running around who are coordinating ability usages and will never be lynched. 

In the meantime, we have this round and next to kill the vulture if we can't trust him.  If it turns out the vulture is an FG, it's game over after that point.  Even if we're wrong about it, it's still good risk management.  My targetting of you is mainly because of your suspected role and how potentially dangerous it makes you, combined with my inability to rule you out as an FG.  I don't know how to prove you're safe at this point, and I think a vulture is a more immediate threat than world.

Again, I admit there is little backing this.  But I can't accurately finger an FG right now, and risk management is the next best thing.

[QuantumT]

The only reason I haven't voted thus far in this round is because I was waiting for a rules clarification. I didn't want to fly blind. I'm not sure what the problem with that is.

It's also worth noting that any person chosen at random now is actually less likely to be guilty then (83% are innocent) then when 1world was picked (80%).

[Terroking]

Shantu - 1 (nilsieboy)
majofa - 1 (RavingRabbid)
RavingRabbid - 6 (Kakerlake, 1world24, thenewguy, majofa,ShiningSword,Shantu)
QuantumT- 2 (Skydaemon, Terroking)

I think I can follow Sky's reasoning on this one.