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thearchduke

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg121#msg121
« Reply #48 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

EVIL HAMSTER!  I assume you're farming right now, with a poison deck like that...

Offline Essence

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg122#msg122
« Reply #49 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Just a thought.  Given that the slot wheel picks 5 cards at random, making 50 attempts to find non-pillar cards before giving up and including pillars, it seems like the best 'deal' for a player rare-farming would be a deck constructed of:

Rare 1x6
Rare 2x6
Pillarsx18

This way, the computer has a 2 in 5 chance of finding one of the rares on each of those 50 attempts, giving an infintesimally small chance of getting pillars in the mix, but the player still has a 52% chance of winning a card by winning the game.


This, of course, applies only to those grand masters who have 6 of a given rare to stack into a deck. :)

The only question remaining is: what rares to put in?  I think the best for the newbs would be Pulv and Eternity, but that's just me...


If something happens and you think it deserves my attention, feel free to PM me. Other than that, I'm probably here if you want to shoot the breeze.

Evil Hamster

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg123#msg123
« Reply #50 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

EVIL HAMSTER!  I assume you're farming right now, with a poison deck like that...
I was last night until I went to bed. Won my first shard and second eternity. Not bad for 20-30 minutes. Forgot to set up my own rare-farm though.

Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg124#msg124
« Reply #51 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Just a thought.  Given that the slot wheel picks 5 cards at random, making 50 attempts to find non-pillar cards before giving up and including pillars, it seems like the best 'deal' for a player rare-farming would be a deck constructed of:

Rare 1x6
Rare 2x6
Pillarsx18

This way, the computer has a 2 in 5 chance of finding one of the rares on each of those 50 attempts, giving an infintesimally small chance of getting pillars in the mix, but the player still has a 52% chance of winning a card by winning the game.


This, of course, applies only to those grand masters who have 6 of a given rare to stack into a deck. :)

The only question remaining is: what rares to put in?  I think the best for the newbs would be Pulv and Eternity, but that's just me...
Problem with this is, and correct me if I'm wrong, if the number of Pillars/Towers in a deck exceeds 50% of the total cards in the deck, then the "picker" mechanism that selects the cards just includes them, too, instead of taking 50 chances. I believe it was Evil Hamster who said this in another thread, and I believe he was mentioning it based on what he believed he heard from Zanzarino.

foyle

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg125#msg125
« Reply #52 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Just a thought.  Given that the slot wheel picks 5 cards at random, making 50 attempts to find non-pillar cards before giving up and including pillars, it seems like the best 'deal' for a player rare-farming would be a deck constructed of:

Rare 1x6
Rare 2x6
Pillarsx18

This way, the computer has a 2 in 5 chance of finding one of the rares on each of those 50 attempts, giving an infintesimally small chance of getting pillars in the mix, but the player still has a 52% chance of winning a card by winning the game.


This, of course, applies only to those grand masters who have 6 of a given rare to stack into a deck. :)

The only question remaining is: what rares to put in?  I think the best for the newbs would be Pulv and Eternity, but that's just me...


Essence, that is what I've been thinking too.  that is why I tried to do close to that (Shard x 6, Pulverizer x 6, Eternity x 2, pillar x 17).  My intention though was to do Eternity x 6, Pulverizer x 6, tower x 18 if I had 6 Eternities/Pulverizer.  Unfortunately other than Shard, the only rare I have 6 of is probably Owl's Eye, Miracle, Fahrenheit, which people don't seem too interested in. 
However, with this setup I think you will still be getting a decent number of pillars, however it is still going to give you a good chance to win rares.  My understand is it goes like this:
Find 1 card at random from deck.  find another card at random from deck, etc... (repeat 5 times, so you have 5 cards from deck, some of which may be the same thing (ex it could pick 3 eternities, 1 pulverizer, 1 pillar).
If ANY of 5 cards picked above are a pillar, redo the whole selection  If after 50 tries you can never get a set of 5 that does not include a pillar, then just go with whatever you got (so if on the 51st try the result was 2 eternities, 2 pulverizer, 1 pillar, then that is what the wheel would have).  Depending on if a card is 'removed' once it is picked in the first part, the chances of getting a group of 5 without a pillar on each individual try would be either:
(if card is eliminated from possibilties once selected)
12/30 * 11/29 * 10/28 * 9/27 * 8/26
= 95040/17100720
=~ 1/200

(if card is not eliminated from possibilities once selected)
(12/30)^5
= 248832/24300000
=~ 1/100

So in the first case since you try this 50 times, about 23% times you will end up with a spin that has no pillars (1 - (199/200)^30).  If it is the 2nd then 40% the time (1 - (99/100)^30) you will end up with a spin with no pillars.  Alternatively if you had a deck of 6 of three rares, and 12 pillars:
18/30 * 17/29 * 16/28 * 15/27 * 14/26
= 1028160/17100720
=~ 1/16

or could be:
(18/30)^5
= 1889568/24300000
=~ 1/13

So if you have 18 pillars it seems like most spins will include some pillars in it.  However, when they didn't (somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of the time), they would have only 2 cards (or possibly even 1 on super rare occassions) in it so you would have a very good chance of winning.
With 12 pillars and 3 rares, somewhere between 96% (1-(15/16)^50) and 98% (1-(12/13)^50) of the time your spins should not include any pillars. 
To go the next step and say which of these is more optimal is a bit trickier.  Would probably need to create a simulation for that... perhaps I shall do that.

foyle

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg126#msg126
« Reply #53 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

So in the first case since you try this 50 times, about 23% times you will end up with a spin that has no pillars (1 - (199/200)^30).  If it is the 2nd then 40% the time (1 - (99/100)^30) you will end up with a spin with no pillars. 
Sorry in those equations it should have showed the 199/200 and 99/100 being raised to the 50th power, not the 30th.  I did put the correct percentages for the 50th power though. 

Skillgannon

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg127#msg127
« Reply #54 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Hmmm, well I've always uploaded a rare deck.  I'll keep doing so.  I anyone wants a specific rare in my rare deck just tell me.  Or if you want more of a rare tell me too.  Artic Squid, Titan, and Shard of Gratitude can't be added though.  I only have one Artic Octopus and 0 of the other two.



I'll be:


Unless I'm online (or going to be again shortly) I should have my rare deck up.  Also, I don't bother upping all my rares.  I win rares from gods, so no point in upping them until I need it.

foyle

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg128#msg128
« Reply #55 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

I completed the simulation, I only had time to run 1000's spins for each setup (I assumed when cards are picked they aren't eliminated from the pool for the next pick, so went with that method).
Here are the numbers I got for numbers of cards won in the 1000 spins (equiv to 333 T50 games):
6xCard A, 6xCard B, 18xPillar:
win card A: 102 - ~10%
win card B: 95 - ~10%
win pillar: 180 - ~18%

6xCard A, 6xCard B, 6x Card C, 12x Pillar:
Win Card A: 86 - ~8%
Win Card B: 86 - ~8%
Win Card C: 79 - ~8%

So looking at those I would say the 6/6/6/12 may be slightly preferrable, but it depends on your preferences on how much you prefer A and B to card C.  You should win more rares with the 6/6/6/12 though and only a bit less of the specific A and B cards compared to 6/6/18.  The 1000 runs is also a fairly small sample size, sometime tomorrow when I have the resources again I may be able to try something bigger.  But at least the numbers for card A/B in 6x6x18 and A/B/C in 6x6x6x12 are close (they should be equal), so that indicates it was hopefully a reasonable sample size.  

Evil Hamster

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg129#msg129
« Reply #56 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »
Just a thought.  Given that the slot wheel picks 5 cards at random, making 50 attempts to find non-pillar cards before giving up and including pillars, it seems like the best 'deal' for a player rare-farming would be a deck constructed of:

Rare 1x6
Rare 2x6
Pillarsx18

This way, the computer has a 2 in 5 chance of finding one of the rares on each of those 50 attempts, giving an infintesimally small chance of getting pillars in the mix, but the player still has a 52% chance of winning a card by winning the game.


This, of course, applies only to those grand masters who have 6 of a given rare to stack into a deck. :)

The only question remaining is: what rares to put in?  I think the best for the newbs would be Pulv and Eternity, but that's just me...
Problem with this is, and correct me if I'm wrong, if the number of Pillars/Towers in a deck exceeds 50% of the total cards in the deck, then the "picker" mechanism that selects the cards just includes them, too, instead of taking 50 chances. I believe it was Evil Hamster who said this in another thread, and I believe he was mentioning it based on what he believed he heard from Zanzarino.
I went back and found Zanzarino's update, but there were no details...

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,590.msg6485#msg6485 (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,590.msg6485#msg6485)

foyle

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg130#msg130
« Reply #57 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Also I didn't specify, but in the 6x6x6x12 setup, the simulation never resulted in winning a pillar.  It should be possible though, just very very rare.

turin

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg131#msg131
« Reply #58 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Guys i think you're wrong.
The "5 slots" mechanism isnt right: i often face more than 5 different cards in winning slots, and sometimes get pillars from a deck with just 7 pillars out of 30 cards (my flying weapons deck for top50).
So i know your mistakes, but dont ask me for the truth: i have no idea :P

Evil Hamster

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Top 50 Decks that really can Help you. https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=570.msg132#msg132
« Reply #59 on: December 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Guys i think you're wrong.
The "5 slots" mechanism isnt right: i often face more than 5 different cards in winning slots, and sometimes get pillars from a deck with just 7 pillars out of 30 cards (my flying weapons deck for top50).
So i know your mistakes, but dont ask me for the truth: i have no idea :P
I believe it re-chooses the cards for each individual spin. The mechanics are the same, though.

As for pillars- I believe Zanz might have removed any restrictions at all from them showing up in the spinners based on the fact I win about 10 qp a night off rainbow decks- which are only about 1/3 pillars.

 

anything
blarg: