KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck)

[SickPillow]

What's the point of the Graboids with no Time Mark?

they can still eat cars and scare small villages in the desert.

lol   


i loved the first Tremors movie. 

[guolin]

What's the point of the Graboids with no Time Mark?

they can still eat cars and scare small villages in the desert.

Lol, cultural reference joke ftw.

[SickPillow]

Thirteenth Matchup: (My graboid is bigger than Your graboid)

For this matchup, there is the reigning champion:

Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush
The classic shrieker rush deck!  Fast and simple.  With the bestest, most overpowered creatures ever created by the zanzarinobeano.

Code: [Select]

6rk 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h
Then there is the challenger:

 Skillgannon's Speed Blitzing
I chose this deck for testing.  Its a mono earth rush deck, with no weapons, a bunch of antlions, and cupcakes.  Eh, I guess it doesn't have cupcakes.

Code: [Select]

778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 779 779 779 779 779 779 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 77h 77h


Results:

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total.  (actually 223 games if you count farm decks)

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 83/17, 83%
Turns to win (TTW) of 6.70
13 Elemental Masteries
Points gained: 1802
Electrum gained: 2337

 Skillgannon's Speed Blitzing:
Win/Loss= 81/19, 81%
Turns to win (TTW) of 6.67
14 Elemental Masteries
Points gained: 1850
Electrum gained: 2470

All farm decks have been removed from the data.




Clone 156 is racing Vs Clone 754.  Reaaaadyyy Get Set... Goooooooooooo! 
Aaaaaand the winner is...  Ah. its a tie.  what a surprise.   

Not much to say for this matchup.  They both have virtually the same strengths and weaknesses.  Antlions are worse against shields that have straight damage reduction, but antlions are better Vs bone shields since you get more of them.  Both decks can burrow.  Both decks have creatures with 4 HP.

Only change I'd make on the Skillgannon deck, is maybe swap out 1 antlion for 1 tower.  The quanta production is slightly low and sometimes your creatures stick in your hand for too long.

Stats wise, the decks did virtually the same.  The one deck has 2 more wins, the other deck has one more EM.  Blah blah... they are even. 

*Double**Edit*
By the new rules found on page 9 of the thread, the winner is determined by the ratio of: Wins/(TTW)

For Mono Earth Shrieker: 83/6.70 = 12.39
For Skillgannon's Speed Blitzing: 81/6.67 = 12.15

With Adjustments for Overly Long Games: (4 wins were turned into losses)
For Mono Earth Shrieker: 80/6.44 = 12.43
For Skillgannon's Speed Blitzing: 80/6.55 = 12.21

Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush has the higher score and is therefore the winner.

 Winner is Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush
*Double**Edit*

[jmizzle7]

How can you say that it is a draw, but then declare a winner (Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush) when Skillgannon's deck outperformed Shriekers in four out of five of your statistical categories? This isn't the first time that you have declared a draw, shrugged it off and declared Shriekers the winner (see also: jmdt's Fastest Speedbow Eva stats from matchup #9). Those results were all over the place, as you removed the 10 farms from the win/loss record of Shriekers but neglected to remove them from the rainbow's win/loss record. Additionally, you claimed that the score/electrum gained from farms battled was not removed from the overall score/electrum gained, but jmdt's speedbow showed both a lower score gain and a lower electrum gain. With 14 wins from farms and a faster ttw, the speedbow should have gained more score and electrum (faster ttw implies less damage taken).

You can't throw out outliers in resulting data to justify a winner. The entire KOTH study is based on 100 games played by two different decks, with the raw results being paired up and the winner takes the hill. All top tier decks will have similar results against the top 50, so eliminating the possibility of "winning by a nose" makes close matchups an automatic win for the defending champ. That isn't fair. It's your study, but if you want to have accurate results, you must not declare winners on speculation.

[jmdt]

How can you say that it is a draw, but then declare a winner (Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush) when Skillgannon's deck outperformed Shriekers in four out of five of your statistical categories? This isn't the first time that you have declared a draw, shrugged it off and declared Shriekers the winner (see also: jmdt's Fastest Speedbow Eva stats from matchup #9). Those results were all over the place, as you removed the 10 farms from the win/loss record of Shriekers but neglected to remove them from the rainbow's win/loss record. Additionally, you claimed that the score/electrum gained from farms battled was not removed from the overall score/electrum gained, but jmdt's speedbow showed both a lower score gain and a lower electrum gain. With 14 wins from farms and a faster ttw, the speedbow should have gained more score and electrum (faster ttw implies less damage taken).

You can't throw out outliers in resulting data to justify a winner. The entire KOTH study is based on 100 games played by two different decks, with the raw results being paired up and the winner takes the hill. All top tier decks will have similar results against the top 50, so eliminating the possibility of "winning by a nose" makes close matchups an automatic win for the defending champ. That isn't fair. It's your study, but if you want to have accurate results, you must not declare winners on speculation.

I agree completely here.  If my speedbow lost becouse of electrum/score, then then antlion version is clearly the winner.  Otherwise you are not using the same scientific scale for picking the winner.

[~Napalm]

hehe, do I sense some biases in this thread   

[SickPillow]

jmdt's Fastest Speedbow Eva stats from matchup #9). Those results were all over the place, as you removed the 10 farms from the win/loss record of Shriekers but neglected to remove them from the rainbow's win/loss record. Additionally, you claimed that the score/electrum gained from farms battled was not removed from the overall score/electrum gained, but jmdt's speedbow showed both a lower score gain and a lower electrum gain. With 14 wins from farms and a faster ttw, the speedbow should have gained more score and electrum (faster ttw implies less damage taken).

what you are saying isn't right.  for that matchup the final win/loss scores were adjusted to include no farm decks, after i had collected the data.  The farm decks were taken out of the win/loss records for BOTH decks, but the effects of the farms could not be taken out of the rest of the stats.

if you had a problem with how i did that, you should have said so, and i would have explained what i had done.
because now you are just randomly stating that i messed up those stats... and i did not.

you say that with 14 wins from farm decks and a faster ttw, the speedbow should have gained more score and electrum...  this is totally false.     here is an example: you put in 2 shriekers, he places an otyugh, you burrow and wait 8 more turns, all he has out is an otyugh with 0 attack,  you win with an EM, your EM took 10 turns.  there can be chances with burrow that allow for better hp wins even with slower ttw.   The same thing can also happen randomly.   Also the TTW discrepancy was already addressed, and was due to a couple outliers, 1 or 2 of them...  speedbow was not actually faster.

but basically you claim that i doctored those stats.  i'm really not taking that well.  I DID NOT ALTER ANY STATS IN THAT MATCH.  The only thing i did was retroactively change Win/Loss percentage by figuring in how many farms they faced, this was suggested by Zse, and i agreed it was a good idea since i had counted the amount of farms they met.

[jmizzle7]

I am not claiming anything that I haven't observed and carefully reviewed already, SickPillow. Look at the results of your win rate of that match.

Results:

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 70/20, 77.8% (no farm decks)
TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks
Points gained: 2062
Electrum gained: 2788
 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 75.6% (no farm decks)
TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks
Points gained: 2058
Electrum gained: 2728

You played 100 games for each side, correct? So after removing the farm matches, the Shrieker deck had a net total of 90 games played. However, for your claim to be true (farm wins removed), the net games played for jmdt's deck should be 86. Looking at the results shows a win/loss record of 79/21, which is a total of 100 games. It is obvious that you made a mistake somewhere. My complaint is that you either didn't notice it or have refused to admit it. The inconsistencies in this data, by definition, mean that the data is flawed, no matter what the outcome.

[SickPillow]

You can't throw out outliers in resulting data to justify a winner. The entire KOTH study is based on 100 games played by two different decks, with the raw results being paired up and the winner takes the hill. All top tier decks will have similar results against the top 50, so eliminating the possibility of "winning by a nose" makes close matchups an automatic win for the defending champ. That isn't fair. It's your study, but if you want to have accurate results, you must not declare winners on speculation.

is that really winning by a nose?

one deck wins 2 more games, the other gets 1 more EM, score and electrum are also virtually the same.

if i had chosen skillgannon as winner, i would have also had complaints of people.  They would have quoted me as saying "But to me, in this comparison, I am going mainly by win percentage, and how strong a deck is."

that is exactly what i have previously said.  that i wasn't going to dethrone shrieker rush, when it put up a better win percentage.  and i'm still not going to do it.  sorry.

[SickPillow]

I am not claiming anything that I haven't observed and carefully reviewed already, SickPillow. Look at the results of your win rate of that match.

Results:

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 70/20, 77.8% (no farm decks)
TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks
Points gained: 2062
Electrum gained: 2788
 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 75.6% (no farm decks)
TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks
Points gained: 2058
Electrum gained: 2728

You played 100 games for each side, correct? So after removing the farm matches, the Shrieker deck had a net total of 90 games played. However, for your claim to be true (farm wins removed), the net games played for jmdt's deck should be 86. Looking at the results shows a win/loss record of 79/21, which is a total of 100 games. It is obvious that you made a mistake somewhere. My complaint is that you either didn't notice it or have refused to admit it. The inconsistencies in this data, by definition, mean that the data is flawed, no matter what the outcome.

The percentage is right.  I didn't alter the xx/xx win/loss value.  that is just a mistype, which does not affect the statistics, same math is shown in the zse thread 3 posts down.

there is no inconsistency in the data.

this was the change made:
80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.


now i changed it to show it before and after it was altered.  this is a bit silly, but it seems you want it.

[jmdt]

if i had chosen skillgannon as winner, i would have also had complaints of people.  They would have quoted me as saying "But to me, in this comparison, I am going mainly by win percentage, and how strong a deck is."

that is exactly what i have previously said.  that i wasn't going to dethrone shrieker rush, when it put up a better win percentage.  and i'm still not going to do it.  sorry.

Skillgannon's deck has a higher electrum and score gain while also posting a lower ttw.  In the end who cares about win % when everyone that plays T50 is looking for the most electrum or score in a period of time. 

Skillgannon's deck clearly does this better based on your results.

[SickPillow]

if i had chosen skillgannon as winner, i would have also had complaints of people.  They would have quoted me as saying "But to me, in this comparison, I am going mainly by win percentage, and how strong a deck is."

that is exactly what i have previously said.  that i wasn't going to dethrone shrieker rush, when it put up a better win percentage.  and i'm still not going to do it.  sorry.

Skillgannon's deck has a higher electrum and score gain while also posting a lower ttw.  In the end who cares about win % when everyone that plays T50 is looking for the most electrum or score in a period of time. 

Skillgannon's deck clearly does this better based on your results.

truthfully at this point i don't care.  if everyone thinks that i should go by score and electrum instead of win percentage... that's fine by me. 
i was trying to stay consistent with what i was doing... by favoring win percentage.
but if i will have to argue about it every time... then i might as well make it score and electrum... and save myself grief.