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Offline jmizzle7

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158405#msg158405
« Reply #96 on: September 14, 2010, 03:37:29 pm »
The percentage is right.  I didn't alter the xx/xx win/loss value.  that is just a mistype, which does not affect the statistics, same math is shown in the zse thread 3 posts down.

there is no inconsistency in the data.

this was the change made:
80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.

now i changed it to show it before and after it was altered.  this is a bit silly, but it seems you want it.
Please note the added emphasis. I understand how it's easy to overlook something when you are editing a post, but dismissing it while conducting a study is still a mistake that needs to be acknowledged. I'm not trying to undermine the study. I'm trying to help you make it as true as possible.

SickPillow

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158406#msg158406
« Reply #97 on: September 14, 2010, 03:53:39 pm »
The percentage is right.  I didn't alter the xx/xx win/loss value.  that is just a mistype, which does not affect the statistics, same math is shown in the zse thread 3 posts down.

there is no inconsistency in the data.

this was the change made:
80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.

now i changed it to show it before and after it was altered.  this is a bit silly, but it seems you want it.
Please note the added emphasis. I understand how it's easy to overlook something when you are editing a post, but dismissing it while conducting a study is still a mistake that needs to be acknowledged. I'm not trying to undermine the study. I'm trying to help you make it as true as possible.
i'm sorry but look at your previous posts, you do try to undermine the study. 
you claimed my "numbers where all over the place" 
you state that my math is wrong and that my "data is flawed".
you stated that faster ttw always leads to more points and electrum, and therefore my data is wrong  (this is not true)
you claim that i refuse to admit a mistake (which makes no sense, since i immediately admitted to having a mistype)

instead you could have easily done this way differently, by making a couple inquiries and having me fix the one mistype.
or asking why i would still choose a certain winner when it only won in win%
instead you attacked the study.  i definitely felt under attack   :(



SickPillow

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158509#msg158509
« Reply #98 on: September 14, 2010, 06:38:13 pm »
Not so New Rules  (For Deciding the Winner of a Matchup)

The winning deck is the deck that wins the most matches in least amount of time.

Therefore the only stats which matter are Wins and TTW (TTW being a measure of average speed.  it would be better if i had actual time measurements).

To determine the winner:
The wins will be divided by TTW (i'd much rather do Wins/time, but I have not yet done time studies).  This will be done for both decks, and the results will be compared.  Whichever deck has a greater value will be crowned the winner.
This is sort of a strange win statistic, something like: Wins per average turns required to win.  I'd like to come up with a better system, but this is the best one I have so far.


I will also be looking at the data to see if there are any wins that took an abnormally large amount of turns.  These wins will be turned into losses if this helps to increase the win/TTW stat.

There is a reason why I am doing this and I will give an example: (this has happened)
One deck in the T50 is a deck that consists of only antimatter and liquid shadow.  I am testing 2 rush decks.  If I play any of my creature cards, I will lose the match.  The enemy deck will antimatter and liquid shadow any creature I put out.  Therefore the only way that I can win is by passing turns until the other deck runs out of cards.  The winning deck now gets a win with 23 turns passed.  One game of 23 TTW can severely alter otherwise great stats.  Basically the winner of this matchup would be decided by how many times a deck runs into this opponent.

So instead of a win I will give the deck a Loss instead.  This is the only change I make.  I do not want to punish a deck for my playstyle.  If I were Perfect Grinder I would immediately quit out of this matchup. (but instead i play it out and win)


Offline jmizzle7

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158568#msg158568
« Reply #99 on: September 14, 2010, 08:04:20 pm »
SickPillow, not once did I attack you or your study. Just because I say that something is flawed doesn't mean that it is terrible, or that you are awful because of it. Any kind of personal jabs you drew from the words I typed are self-made. This is the most common type of miscommunication on public forums - tone implanting. I choose to speak plainly because it is the best way to communicate a point. I'm sorry if you somehow think there is some kind of malicious undertone, because it's just not there.

This is getting far off-topic now, so any further discussion or complaints regarding this argument shall be conducted via PM.

bigbadbanana

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158590#msg158590
« Reply #100 on: September 14, 2010, 08:34:31 pm »
Great Work, Sick Pillow, I've been monitoring this thread since the beginning and I realize how much time and effort you spent on making this. +Karma :)

SickPillow

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158595#msg158595
« Reply #101 on: September 14, 2010, 08:38:51 pm »
New Rules  (For Deciding the Winner of a Matchup)

due to umm.. popular demand (or criticism), i will now determine the winner of a matchup by two statistics, points gained and total turns passed.

to determine a winner i will divide the total score gain by the total turns taken.
whichever deck gains the most score per turn wins.

the win/loss record will no longer figure into which deck wins the matchup.


This system will make it so that there will always be a winner, even when statistically there is no significant difference between the two data sets and the winner is basically random.
Also the system will favor fast decks and decks that get a lot of elemental masteries.

I just changed the winner of the last matchup, due to the new judging rules. 
I'm hoping this change will stave off any further arguments over who is the winner of a matchup.
It will definitely make the whole thing easier for Me!   ;D

SickPillow

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158600#msg158600
« Reply #102 on: September 14, 2010, 08:40:15 pm »
Great Work, Sick Pillow, I've been monitoring this thread since the beginning and I realize how much time and effort you spent on making this. +Karma :)
Thanks.  i appreciate it   :D

zse

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158796#msg158796
« Reply #103 on: September 15, 2010, 01:26:13 am »
New Rules  (For Deciding the Winner of a Matchup)

due to umm.. popular demand (or criticism), i will now determine the winner of a matchup by two statistics, points gained and total turns passed.

to determine a winner i will divide the total score gain by the total turns taken.
whichever deck gains the most score per turn wins.

the win/loss record will no longer figure into which deck wins the matchup.


This system will make it so that there will always be a winner, even when statistically there is no significant difference between the two data sets and the winner is basically random.
Also the system will favor fast decks and decks that get a lot of elemental masteries.
NOoo  Why, oh why...
Is there any need for this change. We already know that if you want to gain stuff-loads of score, you should play AI3 with The Ultimate Speed EM Deck (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,10563.0.html) by jmdt (or whoever made that first). That deck can gain you some 2500-3000 score on 100 games, depending on play-style & luck. There's no way anyone can beat that playing T50, unless one faces only farm decks. We also know that best way to get tons of electrun is to use Hope/RoL on AI6. Gaining coins and score is just a byproduct of playing T50 in my eyes... The only thing that was unique in this study was that it compared how different decks WIN on Top50, and my opinion is that you should keep it that way.

This is the way I see the difference in Match-up 13:
Wins 83 vs 81. Difference 2 wins!
TTW 6,70 vs 6,67. Difference 3 turns in 100 games = 0,45%, no meaningful difference.
Elemental Masteries 13 vs 14. Who cares really?
Score 1802 vs 1850. Difference 48 points = 0,48/game, no meaningful difference. (And BOTH lose to AI3 grinding.)
Coins 2337 vs 2470. Difference 133 coins = 1,33/game, no meaningful difference. (And BOTH lose to AI6 grinding.)

SickPillow

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158818#msg158818
« Reply #104 on: September 15, 2010, 02:02:56 am »
New Rules  (For Deciding the Winner of a Matchup)

due to umm.. popular demand (or criticism), i will now determine the winner of a matchup by two statistics, points gained and total turns passed.

to determine a winner i will divide the total score gain by the total turns taken.
whichever deck gains the most score per turn wins.

the win/loss record will no longer figure into which deck wins the matchup.


This system will make it so that there will always be a winner, even when statistically there is no significant difference between the two data sets and the winner is basically random.
Also the system will favor fast decks and decks that get a lot of elemental masteries.
NOoo  Why, oh why...
Is there any need for this change. We already know that if you want to gain stuff-loads of score, you should play AI3 with The Ultimate Speed EM Deck (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,10563.0.html) by jmdt (or whoever made that first). That deck can gain you some 2500-3000 score on 100 games, depending on play-style & luck. There's no way anyone can beat that playing T50, unless one faces only farm decks. We also know that best way to get tons of electrun is to use Hope/RoL on AI6. Gaining coins and score is just a byproduct of playing T50 in my eyes... The only thing that was unique in this study was that it compared how different decks WIN on Top50, and my opinion is that you should keep it that way.

This is the way I see the difference in Match-up 13:
Wins 83 vs 81. Difference 2 wins!
TTW 6,70 vs 6,67. Difference 3 turns in 100 games = 0,45%, no meaningful difference.
Elemental Masteries 13 vs 14. Who cares really?
Score 1802 vs 1850. Difference 48 points = 0,48/game, no meaningful difference. (And BOTH lose to AI3 grinding.)
Coins 2337 vs 2470. Difference 133 coins = 1,33/game, no meaningful difference. (And BOTH lose to AI6 grinding.)

My analysis of match 13 was the exact same as yours.  and i am a really big fan of judging by win percentage, and trying to look at the "whole picture" by examining all the data.  but really, i will get complaints about being biased for every match where the data is close.  So basically i have to choose some sort of system that will easily let me justify the winner.

If i said that i want to solely base my decision on win percentage, then someone would submit their "deckout" stall deck, which maybe wins 92% of the time but takes countless of turns.  Then i would get endless complaints about having such a "slow" deck as the "king" deck.

I sort of wish there were 2 categories, with 2 different King decks.  One is for finding a speed grinding deck with a decent percentage win rate.  And category 2 would be to find the best deck for Win%.
 
Trying to find the best deck for Win% is much more exciting because many awesome decks are slow.  They are slow, but fun to play, and may win at a really high rate.  Finding this deck is way harder than finding the best "speed-grinding" deck.

So maybe i should have 2 categories?  and stop the arguments?  And people could choose which "king" deck to challenge?

zse

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158844#msg158844
« Reply #105 on: September 15, 2010, 02:54:44 am »
That's true, you could have Kings in 2 categories. Or 1 true King (better win%) and the Queen of Whiners! ...eh sorry misspelled that... Grinders! Yes! Definitely! That's the one, grinders is the word I was thinking... yeah... yep, yep... :-*

There's also one another way: the winner is always the one with better win%, but if the deck has TTW 15+ (or 10+ or any number you choose to be valid) it gets disqualified for "being too slow stall deck".

Offline jmdt

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158981#msg158981
« Reply #106 on: September 15, 2010, 11:15:57 am »
King Of the Hill

This competition will pit T50 decks against eachother in a one-on-one matchup, to slowly find the best deck against T50 opponents.  Now, most people say: "You can't compare decks in T50! T50 opponents change every day!".  But I say, This is not True. 

For the competition I will play both decks against T50.  I will switch between decks every 10 games.  This way if any changes occur in the T50 decks, it will affect the performance of both decks.  I will play at least 100 games (unless one deck makes me very angry) for both decks, which should assure somewhat comparable statistics.  The win/loss ratio and turns-to-win stats will be compared and one "king of the hill" deck will be crowned.

Post your deck if you wish to challenge the leading KOTH deck.  Otherwise I will make my own pick.

*disclaimer* Please note that I am not playing 10,000 games with each deck, so it is possible that the worse deck can win a match-up.  Also, if i say how your deck "sux SoO hard", plz forgive me  ;D
I quote your 1st post here.  You say that you are looking at 2 criteria to determine the best deck against T50 opponents: win/loss ratio and turns-to-win stats.  I'm pretty sure this part of the post has not changed since this study was started, if so forgive me.  So from the outset, you collected data on win% and ttw, which validates this claim.

Recently you 'changed the rules' to look at all parameters instead of only win%, but I thought, and your 1st post claims, that you were doing this all along.  The title of the study backs up this notion 'KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck)'.  Having 2 KOTH would serve little purpose as this study is to find the best deck versus T50.  This study is a novel idea as no one before has studied how well decks perform versus T50.  I hope you test many more decks versus the T50 in the future.

Ultimately where issues lie is that we all have a difference oppinion how to interpret the results.  What exaclty makes the best T50 deck?  That question has a different answer for many people.  It all depends on what the person is looking to do.  Most T50 farmers are looking to get rares as fast as possible.  Some people even skip non farms.  These people would want the fastest deck possible to get their rares efficiently; one that wins fast and also loses fast.  The next large group of people is those who shun the fg's and play T50 for electrum.  If there is a good number of farms out, the electrum for t50 can exceed that from the fg's while actually netting you positive score.  These people also want a fast deck, but would be worried about win % as well.  Before AI3 EM decks were in vogue, T50 was a decent place to farm score, however at the moment, score is more of an afterthough.

So rares, speed, electrum (after selling rares), and win % are the most important factors to the average joe T50 farmer in probably that order.

Looking solely at win% tells only a small portion of the picture when examining a decks performance, especially versus T50.  If you only have 1 data parameter available, then by all means use that for analysis.  When you have say 5 parameters to look at use all the data you have to make your case.

I am not attacking you or your study; I am rather trying to help you develop a an acurate and maningful scientific study.  Look at it as a thesis defence of sorts.  Keep up the good work.

Ant-n-ero

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Re: KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=11882.msg158982#msg158982
« Reply #107 on: September 15, 2010, 11:26:35 am »
if you are farming T50 you obviously don't care (at least not THAT much) about coins or points, otherwise you will, as said before, play AI3/AI6 for them, you play T50 to hammer out fast wins for Rare Card rewards, this is why you want the Win/Loss/Win% to make the final decision, along with a slight ttw involvement

don't change the rules now, or else all your data is invalid, sure some will change as T50 and the decks change, but overall it's the best way to figure out stuff

I've been using a version of Vreely's fire golem rush killer deck (w/e) and by looking at this, I think Shriekers might be the way forwards! I always considered them but I never liked them, but agreeably the fire golem deck is very situational, sometime you get beaten by really bad biting farms becuase of a really bad hand or a single spell (anti-matter) or a single card (ice shield), I think shriekers will be better, and you data here conlcudeds that

Shriekers ftw!!

p.s. have you tested RoL/Hope yet? i couldn't see it on page 1 so I wasn't sure :/

 

blarg: