KOTH (slowly finding the best T50 deck)

[edxju]

  Burning Colors 

Code: [Select]

4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 6u1 74e 7ae 7di 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dq 7dq 7dq 7gl 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7n0 7qb 7qb 7qb 7qb 7qb 7qb 7tb
A member suggested to put this deck here, before i go announcing this deck is "Guarenteed Best Top 50 Deck". Teach me a lesson eh? 

Thread of Deck: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,12292.new.html#new (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,12292.new.html#new)

[SickPillow]

Ninth Matchup: (stalemates are the st00pido!)

For this matchup, there is the reigning champion:

Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush
The classic shrieker rush deck!  Fast and simple.  With the bestest, most overpowered creatures ever created by the zanzarinobeano.

Code: [Select]

6rk 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h
Then there is the challenger:

 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!
This deck was put up for testing by jmdt.  Its like fast n' stuff.  A rainbow deck that pumps creatures and does not try any defensive rigmarole.

Code: [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u1 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 713 713 745 77g 77g 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ds 7ds 7gm 7k1 7n6 7qb 7qb 7qb 7tf 80g


Results:

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.


Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 70/30, 80% (70/90= 77.8% with no farm decks)
TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks
Points gained: 2062
Electrum gained: 2788
 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 79% (65/86= 75.6% with no farm decks)
TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks
Points gained: 2058
Electrum gained: 2728

jmdt's Speedbow encountered 4 more farm decks than Shrieker rush, so it gained somewhat of an advantage.  The farm decks have been removed from the win loss record, but they still have an effect on score and electrum gain.


hey.. so like.. i played like sooo many games n' stuff.   it was awesemo.  and shrieker was losing!  totally like losing and pwnzd by like 10000 life n' dark rushes.  So thens the Speedo deck all went A-Ok and was winning... but then shreekars like did gud again.  and so it was TieD.  So then Shriekar like lozes 4 games in a row!  i was like LoLz.  I i thinks Speedo will wins!  no more Shriekar!  but then like stuff doens't go soso good and it all turns poop and like stats are all the same n' stuff.

Uhhh...   lets start again...

So both the decks did ok, but the competition was hard.  There were a lot of rush decks floating around, which caused problems equally to both Shrieker and Speedbow.   A lot of the games were decided on the initial coin toss.  Whoever wins the toss, wins.  In general Shrieker seemed to be a bit more unlucky Vs the rush decks.  Speedbow had more problems with rainbow control decks, losing to 7 of them, while shrieker did great against them, but took quite a couple turns to do it.

jmdt's Fastest Speedbow Eva is a nice rush deck, its fast and easy to play.   There is not much you can mess up playing this deck...  The only thing you shouldn't do is play the "werewolf" card instead of the "supernova" card.  One wrong click and you are stuck waiting for 2 turns doing nothing!  I did it once and had to throw out that game, hah.
The stats don't show much difference between the two decks.   They are basically equal.  Shrieker deck has only the slightest advantage, it won 1 more game than Speedbow, and Speedbow faced 4 more farm decks than Shrieker.  Speedbow had a slightly better TTW score, but that's only because of maybe 3 Shrieker games that took long and skewed the stats, one of them took 17 turns to win.

There is no meaningful statistical difference...  so basically its a draw... 

But Shrieker had a tiny advantage...  and even though it is boring to always have the same winner...  it seems we have to keep the king... the king...    at least it seems like that to me, blah!

Winner is Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush!

[SickPillow]

Burning Colors 

Code: [Select]

4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 6u1 74e 7ae 7di 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dq 7dq 7dq 7gl 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7n0 7qb 7qb 7qb 7qb 7qb 7qb 7tb
A member suggested to put this deck here, before i go announcing this deck is "Guarenteed Best Top 50 Deck". Teach me a lesson eh? 

Thread of Deck: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,12292.new.html#new (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,12292.new.html#new)

     i will try it.

My first reaction: Physalia in a rush deck!  you are crazy!

i'm sure i'll have more useful stuff to say later   

[jmdt]

Ninth Matchup: (stalemates are the st00pido!)

For this matchup, there is the reigning champion:

Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush
The classic shrieker rush deck!  Fast and simple.  With the bestest, most overpowered creatures ever created by the zanzarinobeano.

Code: [Select]

6rk 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77hThen there is the challenger:

 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!
This deck was put up for testing by jmdt.  Its like fast n' stuff.  A rainbow deck that pumps creatures and does not try any defensive rigmarole.

Code: [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u1 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 713 713 745 77g 77g 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ds 7ds 7gm 7k1 7n6 7qb 7qb 7qb 7tf 80gResults:

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks
Points gained: 2062
Electrum gained: 2788
 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks
Points gained: 2058
Electrum gained: 2728
jmdt's Speedbow encountered 4 more farm decks than Shrieker rush, so it gained somewhat of an advantage.

hey.. so like.. i played like sooo many games n' stuff.   it was awesemo.  and shrieker was losing!  totally like losing and pwnzd by like 10000 life n' dark rushes.  So thens the Speedo deck all went A-Ok and was winning... but then shreekars like did gud again.  and so it was TieD.  So then Shriekar like lozes 4 games in a row!  i was like LoLz.  I i thinks Speedo will wins!  no more Shriekar!  but then like stuff doens't go soso good and it all turns poop and like stats are all the same n' stuff.

Uhhh...   lets start again...

So both the decks did ok, but the competition was hard.  There were a lot of rush decks floating around, which caused problems equally to both Shrieker and Speedbow.   A lot of the games were decided on the initial coin toss.  Whoever wins the toss, wins.  In general Shrieker seemed to be a bit more unlucky Vs the rush decks.  Speedbow had more problems with rainbow control decks, losing to 7 of them, while shrieker did great against them, but took quite a couple turns to do it.

jmdt's Fastest Speedbow Eva is a nice rush deck, its fast and easy to play.   There is not much you can mess up playing this deck...  The only thing you shouldn't do is play the "werewolf" card instead of the "supernova" card.  One wrong click and you are stuck waiting for 2 turns doing nothing!  I did it once and had to throw out that game, hah.
The stats don't show much difference between the two decks.   They are basically equal.  Shrieker deck has only the slightest advantage, it won 1 more game than Speedbow, and Speedbow faced 4 more farm decks than Shrieker.  Speedbow had a slightly better TTW score, but that's only because of maybe 3 Shrieker games that took long and skewed the stats, one of them took 17 turns to win.

There is no meaningful statistical difference...  so basically its a draw... 

But Shrieker had a tiny advantage...  and even though it is boring to always have the same winner...  it seems we have to keep the king... the king...    at least it seems like that to me, blah!
Winner is Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush!

Shenanigans I say, shenanigans. 

As someone who's tested thousands of games and hundreds with both of these (yeah I realize one of these decks is mine, but I would make the same argument regardless of who;s deck it was):

deck A has: Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
deck B has: Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190

If I look at these stats blindly ignoring the deck they came from.  I take deck B every time.  When it comes down to grinding for an extended period of time, the faster deck is always prefferable.  If the ultimate goal of T50 is getting rares as fast as possible and there is only a 1% difference in win rate I take the faster deck.  A difference of 0.2 is much more signifigant in the long term to your farming than is 1 extra loss.  You undervalue the signifigance of a small amount of difference in TTW.  0.2 ttw can be the difference beween 2-3 more games in the same time period which would more than make up for losing 1 more game.  When I studied win time, ttw had the single biggest factor on the ammount of games you can fit in a given time period.  I would have personally came up with the opposit winner, but its your study.



BTW, +1 karma for all your efforts here.  This is more work than people realize.

[zse]

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks

 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks

jmdt's Speedbow encountered 4 more farm decks than Shrieker rush, so it gained somewhat of an advantage.

I think the farm decks sould be left out from stats, because they can distort the win%. Here the changes are from
80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.

I'm not saying that those are that big differences, or that this would make the used method wrong. And like jmdt said, grinding T50 is about getting rares fast. But still in a way I see the difference on win% being actually 2,2 not just 1. What do you think of it?

[SickPillow]

Ninth Matchup: (stalemates are the st00pido!)

For this matchup, there is the reigning champion:

Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush
The classic shrieker rush deck!  Fast and simple.  With the bestest, most overpowered creatures ever created by the zanzarinobeano.

Code: [Select]

6rk 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77hThen there is the challenger:

 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!
This deck was put up for testing by jmdt.  Its like fast n' stuff.  A rainbow deck that pumps creatures and does not try any defensive rigmarole.

Code: [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u1 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 713 713 745 77g 77g 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ds 7ds 7gm 7k1 7n6 7qb 7qb 7qb 7tf 80gResults:

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks
Points gained: 2062
Electrum gained: 2788
 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks
Points gained: 2058
Electrum gained: 2728
jmdt's Speedbow encountered 4 more farm decks than Shrieker rush, so it gained somewhat of an advantage.

hey.. so like.. i played like sooo many games n' stuff.   it was awesemo.  and shrieker was losing!  totally like losing and pwnzd by like 10000 life n' dark rushes.  So thens the Speedo deck all went A-Ok and was winning... but then shreekars like did gud again.  and so it was TieD.  So then Shriekar like lozes 4 games in a row!  i was like LoLz.  I i thinks Speedo will wins!  no more Shriekar!  but then like stuff doens't go soso good and it all turns poop and like stats are all the same n' stuff.

Uhhh...   lets start again...

So both the decks did ok, but the competition was hard.  There were a lot of rush decks floating around, which caused problems equally to both Shrieker and Speedbow.   A lot of the games were decided on the initial coin toss.  Whoever wins the toss, wins.  In general Shrieker seemed to be a bit more unlucky Vs the rush decks.  Speedbow had more problems with rainbow control decks, losing to 7 of them, while shrieker did great against them, but took quite a couple turns to do it.

jmdt's Fastest Speedbow Eva is a nice rush deck, its fast and easy to play.   There is not much you can mess up playing this deck...  The only thing you shouldn't do is play the "werewolf" card instead of the "supernova" card.  One wrong click and you are stuck waiting for 2 turns doing nothing!  I did it once and had to throw out that game, hah.
The stats don't show much difference between the two decks.   They are basically equal.  Shrieker deck has only the slightest advantage, it won 1 more game than Speedbow, and Speedbow faced 4 more farm decks than Shrieker.  Speedbow had a slightly better TTW score, but that's only because of maybe 3 Shrieker games that took long and skewed the stats, one of them took 17 turns to win.

There is no meaningful statistical difference...  so basically its a draw... 

But Shrieker had a tiny advantage...  and even though it is boring to always have the same winner...  it seems we have to keep the king... the king...    at least it seems like that to me, blah!
Winner is Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush!

Shenanigans I say, shenanigans. 

As someone who's tested thousands of games and hundreds with both of these (yeah I realize one of these decks is mine, but I would make the same argument regardless of who;s deck it was):

deck A has: Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
deck B has: Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190

If I look at these stats blindly ignoring the deck they came from.  I take deck B every time.  When it comes down to grinding for an extended period of time, the faster deck is always prefferable.  If the ultimate goal of T50 is getting rares as fast as possible and there is only a 1% difference in win rate I take the faster deck.  A difference of 0.2 is much more signifigant in the long term to your farming than is 1 extra loss.  You undervalue the signifigance of a small amount of difference in TTW.  0.2 ttw can be the difference beween 2-3 more games in the same time period which would more than make up for losing 1 more game.  When I studied win time, ttw had the single biggest factor on the ammount of games you can fit in a given time period.  I would have personally came up with the opposit winner, but its your study.



BTW, +1 karma for all your efforts here.  This is more work than people realize.

Hehe its the same argument exactly that we had last time!   

The problem here are "outliers" in the data.  Which i sort of explained last time also.  When looking at a whole data set you have to look at outliers, or abnormal, points in the data.  They can severely distort the final numbers, especially when there is a small sample size, which is the case here.

Again, there are wins by the shrieker deck, that take a long time.  These are games that the other deck cannot win.  The only reason Shrieker wins them, is by burrowing.  One of these took 17 turns.  If you just eliminate that one "outlier" in the data, the TTW score for Shrieker drops to 6.241.

In statistics you can't always just look at the final average value, and find meaningful data.  In this case, the final TTW is being distorted.

basically what i'm saying is that Shrieker deck is not significantly slower, may actually be faster, you can just choose to play a couple games muuuch slower, to allow you to win those games.

That aside!  i even state that its a draw!  but don't want to replace the "king" deck with a draw.

but i know!  i wish i had easier data, and an easier winner!  and i can see how you could say that i favor the stupid Shrieker deck!   Because it really is very close!   



Another thing to look at would be score and electrum gain.  Shrieker pulled off 3 more EMs vs non-farm decks.  Shrieker Gained slightly more score and electrum than Speedbow even though it had 4 less farm deck EMs. This means that it finished more matches with more health.
Not that this is horribly significant either, but its just another thing in Shrieker's favor.


BTW if this analysis is getting too nerdy, you can blame my schooling in engineering   

[SickPillow]

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks

 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks

jmdt's Speedbow encountered 4 more farm decks than Shrieker rush, so it gained somewhat of an advantage.

I think the farm decks sould be left out from stats, because they can distort the win%. Here the changes are from
80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.

I'm not saying that those are that big differences, or that this would make the used method wrong. And like jmdt said, grinding T50 is about getting rares fast. But still in a way I see the difference on win% being actually 2,2 not just 1. What do you think of it?

Yep.  Its true.  I should definitely do that.  There is no reason to count the farm decks... and then not adjust the win percentages   
so actually i meant to change it  hehe

I'll probably go in there and change the numbers...   

It still won't help the discussion on what kind of weight should be placed on win% and TTW, or the importance of outliers in the data.  I fear those will always cause controversy.

but thx.

[SickPillow]

I played 100 games for each side, 200 total. 

Stats!:
 Mono-Earth Shrieker Rush:
Win/Loss= 80/20, 80%, with a TTW of 6.375
21 Elemental Masteries - 10 from farm decks

 Da Fastest Speedbow Eva!:
Win/Loss= 79/21, 79%, with a TTW of 6.190
22 Elemental Masteries - 14 from farm decks

jmdt's Speedbow encountered 4 more farm decks than Shrieker rush, so it gained somewhat of an advantage.

I think the farm decks sould be left out from stats, because they can distort the win%. Here the changes are from
80/100=80% -> 70/90=77,8% and
79/100=79% -> 65/86=75,6%.

I'm not saying that those are that big differences, or that this would make the used method wrong. And like jmdt said, grinding T50 is about getting rares fast. But still in a way I see the difference on win% being actually 2,2 not just 1. What do you think of it?

It would also be great if I could adjust the Score and Electrum gain by removing the Farm EM wins.  But for that to happen I would need to know the average score and electrum gained by each EM win Vs a farm deck.  Each farm EM seems to give you electrum between 60 and 75?  and i don't know what it gives you score wise.

I bet its a pain finding out what exactly those values are.   


And different amounts of farm decks even affect TTW averages ... by an unknown amount...  Farm decks don't have CC, don't have heals, and allow you to get better TTW scores.


hmmm....  maybe i will have to keep playing decks until they match in the number of farm decks they encounter...separate sample sizes, but then i won't be able to track and compare score and points.

[Pwnator]

It would also be great if I could adjust the Score and Electrum gain by removing the Farm EM wins.  But for that to happen I would need to know the average score and electrum gained by each EM win Vs a farm deck.  Each farm EM seems to give you electrum between 60 and 75?  and i don't know what it gives you score wise.

It might be a bit cumbersome, but you could just take note of your score every time you finish a match, so when you encounter a farm, just subtract your previous score from your final score. And when you're done with your 100 matches, just deduct all your farm scores from your final score.

[SickPillow]

It would also be great if I could adjust the Score and Electrum gain by removing the Farm EM wins.  But for that to happen I would need to know the average score and electrum gained by each EM win Vs a farm deck.  Each farm EM seems to give you electrum between 60 and 75?  and i don't know what it gives you score wise.

It might be a bit cumbersome, but you could just take note of your score every time you finish a match, so when you encounter a farm, just subtract your previous score from your final score. And when you're done with your 100 matches, just deduct all your farm scores from your final score.

yea.  right now i record score and electrum for every 10 games when i make the switch between the two decks i'm playing.  Taking down score and electrum every game will be pretty painful. 

I might try it for one match and see if it is too annoying.

[PlayerOa]

Great work you have done, SickPillow!
+Karma

[Boingo]

This is a lot of work.  100 games is a lot to play. But 100 games on each side with multiple matchups?  And keeping stats?!?
+1 karma for the effort.