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Offline Silux

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1089664#msg1089664
« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2013, 10:52:09 pm »
Very good thread!
I will use this formula later for my tests.

A thing i really feel to be considered in calculating efficiency is standard deviation from the average.
A deck with lower standard deviation has a more reliable behaviour and can be confronted with later tests.
Variance also points out if the data of the test are stable or it require further analisis.

I can provide data for the deck about TTW, win rate, EM rate and gain before spins.

Anyway all these data can be mined from a tester if he keeps the data comma separated like:
turns, gain
10,16
9,40
7,17

Then it's easy to import the data in excel and do the math.

I'd consider also the turns to loss, most when dealing against FG; some decks can drag out for 30 turns before losing, or others just see the odds aren't right and surrender the first turns.

Offline Leodip

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1089711#msg1089711
« Reply #37 on: July 30, 2013, 08:13:26 am »
Very good thread!
I will use this formula later for my tests.

A thing i really feel to be considered in calculating efficiency is standard deviation from the average.
A deck with lower standard deviation has a more reliable behaviour and can be confronted with later tests.
Variance also points out if the data of the test are stable or it require further analisis.

I can provide data for the deck about TTW, win rate, EM rate and gain before spins.

Anyway all these data can be mined from a tester if he keeps the data comma separated like:
turns, gain
10,16
9,40
7,17

Then it's easy to import the data in excel and do the math.

I'd consider also the turns to loss, most when dealing against FG; some decks can drag out for 30 turns before losing, or others just see the odds aren't right and surrender the first turns.
As for the standard deviation, I'm working on a little update, I could as well put it, but, IMHO, it's not that needed and could, as well, confuse someone.
As for the TTL, I felt the need for it for a little time, it could be implemented but:
1.I'm following CG's formulas, I can't deviate from it too much, even though CG itself said it wouldn't be too hard to insert TTL;
2.TTL isn't really relevant, mainly because we're not for FG, the biggest differences would be for Plat, whom is filled with Skips for certain decks.
However, calculating the TTW even when you lose basically fixs it up.
What happens when we enter TTL in the TTW slot when we lose?
Let's say we have a 75% WR, a 10 TTW and a 2 TTL. If we simulated 100 games, we'll be having, ideally, 75 games with 10 TTW, e 25 with a 2 TTL. If we average those we obtain a 8 TTF (Turn To Finish) on average.
Now let's try using 8 TTW as an average and then try calculating it with 10 TTW e 2 TTL.
The gain from win is ALWAYS 30, and the cost is 15. There are no spins, no special spins and no variation in the gain, neither from the HPs nor the opponent, not even EM.
Let's say that we're playing awesomely fast, 4,5 seconds per turn, 800 TPH. This way, we won't have to calculate TPH in the formula, because 100 games are exactly 1 hour.
Now, take the 75 games, multply for 30, we get 2250. Those were the electrums gained.
Now take the 25 games lost, multiply for -15, we get -375, the amout of electrums gained (and, because it is negative, the amount of electrums lost).
2250-375=1875 Electrums.
Given that the 75 games have a 10 TTW average, it is a total of 750 turns, while the losses are 50 turns. 800 turns at a 800 TPH are exactly 1 hour of gaming.
Said this, the UEI is 1875 Electrum/Hour, using TTW and TTL.
What happens if we use 8 as an average TTF?
100*8=800 turns at an 800 TPH is exactly 1 hour of gaming.
1875 Electrum/Hour, isn't that exactly the same? This works because we're not barely averaging TTW with TTL, but we took the amount of games won and lost.

Offline ColorlessGreenTopic starter

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1089760#msg1089760
« Reply #38 on: July 30, 2013, 03:15:39 pm »
I don't oppose updating the formula to consider TTL. IIRC, there has been some pretty long discussions about it over the years and what I took from those discussions is that it is preferable to consider TTL = TTW rather than calculating it separately. If I can find any of those discussions I'll link them in here. From what I'm recalling (though I could absolutely be misremembering on this point), one of the larger reasons for considering TTL=TTW is how ridiculously subjective it is about when to abandon a losing game. Additionally, skips are considered in FGEI (which is the only place they can reasonably be considered (due to having a fixed deck pool) other than AI3), and autoskips are the place where considering TTL makes the biggest difference.

With all that being said, I still don't actually object to including it in considerations (at least in places where we have some reason to believe it would make a difference). The easiest way to handle it would just be to replace TTW in the value-of-losses portion of the formula with average TTL. However, no past studies consider this so any UEI including TTL would need to be new tests. Additionally, I'm still not convinced that the additional subjectivity isn't more harmful than the additional accuracy.

Code: [Select]
(333 * WR * SV * 0.7833 * (1 + (EMR * 2.55)) * XHP / TTW) - (333 * (1-WR) * LV / [b][u]TTL[/u][/b]) + (333 * TSP * WR / TTW) + (333 * SSV / GPS / TTW)
For now, I do not think it's time to update the formula officially, so for the purposes of UEI results discussion, I would still say that TTL=TTW, but I certainly support having further conversation about whether or not to update the formula to consider TTL. I'll look for the past discussions if I get around to it.

TL;DR: According to what I remember of discussions about TTL in the past, calculating TTL separately probably introduces enough additional subjectivity into the formula to outweigh any additional accuracy gained. That said, we can still have new discussions that don't have to arrive at the same conclusion as I'm recalling the past discussions did.

Offline Silux

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090023#msg1090023
« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2013, 10:52:49 pm »
When i take tests, i never surrender, but i wait until the opponent actually beats me.
This let you calculate the exact cost of losing

Offline ColorlessGreenTopic starter

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090026#msg1090026
« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2013, 11:11:44 pm »
This let you calculate the exact cost of losing

I don't understand. Would you please clarify?
« Last Edit: July 31, 2013, 11:14:18 pm by ColorlessGreen »

Offline Leodip

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090027#msg1090027
« Reply #41 on: July 31, 2013, 11:14:55 pm »
When i take tests, i never surrender, but i wait until the opponent actually beats me.
This let you calculate the exact cost of losing
And you should, instead. When you're really playing (not testing), you're going to surrender whenever needed. This will, hopefully, improve your Electrum/Hour, even when regularly farming.

Offline Silux

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090153#msg1090153
« Reply #42 on: August 01, 2013, 01:13:02 pm »
When losing a battle, i lose the chance to get a spin, the missed gain from the win and the bet cost.
So i never surrender only if it's really obvious i lose the next turn.
(the AI may still play a pandemonium on their creatures, play sundial or sacrifice their creatures)

However if i'm playing with a fast deck, it's unlikely to win after 1.5 times their average TTW, so battles won't drag long even if i'm losing.
If the average TTW is 15, i won't know if i'm going to lose or win until turn 12-18(with stardard deviation 3).
OTK decks can have the worst case of losing, as you need all the cards, and there is a good chance that the cards you need are at the bottom.

Anyway recording also data about the turns spent in losing is useful for having stats about what is the critical turn where you understand you are losing or winning.

Offline Leodip

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090166#msg1090166
« Reply #43 on: August 01, 2013, 02:25:09 pm »
When losing a battle, i lose the chance to get a spin, the missed gain from the win and the bet cost.
So i never surrender only if it's really obvious i lose the next turn.
(the AI may still play a pandemonium on their creatures, play sundial or sacrifice their creatures)

However if i'm playing with a fast deck, it's unlikely to win after 1.5 times their average TTW, so battles won't drag long even if i'm losing.
If the average TTW is 15, i won't know if i'm going to lose or win until turn 12-18(with stardard deviation 3).
OTK decks can have the worst case of losing, as you need all the cards, and there is a good chance that the cards you need are at the bottom.

Anyway recording also data about the turns spent in losing is useful for having stats about what is the critical turn where you understand you are losing or winning.
What I'm saying is that you should play as you usually play when testing, you should never do something different like playing faster, calculating less, skipping less, etc... because it'll make your UEI unreal and unreliable. If you use to play that way even when you're regularly grinding, then it's ok.

Offline Silux

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090278#msg1090278
« Reply #44 on: August 01, 2013, 10:01:31 pm »
i usually grind with 90% win rate decks, so when i lose i carefully note what has gone wrong, and even when happens it's not much a loss.
I skip a lot when farming fake gods anyway:)

Offline Leodip

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090287#msg1090287
« Reply #45 on: August 01, 2013, 10:40:24 pm »
Now you made me wonder: 90% WR is only Bronze, maybe silver, ai0-3. I believe you aren't playing in other leagues, then. Well, we have a good and a bad news:
the good one is that for those leagues you can play so fast that the AI will wonder what hit it, so fast that you'll probably realize you're losing only when you're already dead, making your argument valid;
the bad one is that, unless you're farming rares from Bronze/Silver, you aren't having much profits.

Offline Silux

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090368#msg1090368
« Reply #46 on: August 02, 2013, 09:15:41 am »
actually farming bronze for shards and AI3 just for shards and score.
Money isn't such a problem, as i'm more interested in trying new strategies than actually gathering all the cards upped.

I managed to get a monodeath rush achieve 98,6%win rate over AI3 with 250 tests so i'm sticking with it atm.

There is a chance to get shards outside the arena?

Offline Leodip

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Re: Unified Efficiency Index - How to compare apples to oranges https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50317.msg1090379#msg1090379
« Reply #47 on: August 02, 2013, 10:12:48 am »
actually farming bronze for shards and AI3 just for shards and score.
Money isn't such a problem, as i'm more interested in trying new strategies than actually gathering all the cards upped.

I managed to get a monodeath rush achieve 98,6%win rate over AI3 with 250 tests so i'm sticking with it atm.

There is a chance to get shards outside the arena?
Some FGs have some shards, I happen to remember SoFo, whom is pretty easy to get from FGs if your deck is efficient against Osiris and Akebono, but IIRC, that's the only shard FGs have.

However, we're going pretty off-topic.
Here's a new update on the StatKeeper. I'd want to discuss the TTF and TimeToFinish thing, too. It's not like it is an important change and neither it does change the formula itself or the result, it is just an update on the name that I was hoping it got updated in the original formula, too.

 

blarg: