Decks Used Against Arena with Stats 1.32

[CuCN]

I think the point of the dragons was to use up excess quanta, not to play early.

[DeathKnyte]

I''d like to help in contributing to these studies.


I've been using a modified version of the deck in this thread: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/air-34/mono-air-rush-%28gold%29/

My modifications can be found in that thread, or if you prefer, the picture below.

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7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mv 7n0 7n0 7n5 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7oe 7oe 7oe 7oe 8pr

I practiced a while against Half-Bloods, until I was confident that I knew how to play it well enough, and started on the Bronze arena.

I won my first 25 games, and figured that since I'm new here, no one would believe me. So I played another 25 games, losing but 1 to a horrendous draw.

So, I figured I better play another 50, just to make sure before I post my results, and those went really well too.

I thought about things over night, and decided to play yet more games, this time 100 more, for the reasons stated above.

Well, I'm going to have to move onto other things in my Elements journey, so here is the data:

Spoiler for Hidden:

Code: [Select]


Bronze Arena games played from August 13th 2014 to August 15th 2014


Key:

Game Number. Turns to Win - Time To Win (in seconds)


001. 7-58
002. 6-56
003. 7-62
004. 10-108
005. 6-56
006. 8-98
007. 7-69
008. 8-64
009. 9-88
010. 7-62
011. 8-64
012. 8-84
013. 8-68
014. 6-65
015. 8-83
016. 7-71
017. 7-66
018. 5-54
019. 7-69
020. 9-82
021. 6-62
022. 8-74
023. 6-61
024. 9-92
025. 6-61
026. 7-74
027. 1-6
028. 7-74
029. 6-61
030. Lost - I drew no quanta source at all, sat helpless until over-run
031. 8-78
032. 8-67
033. 6-73
034. 8-82
035. 10-90
036. 5-53
037. 9-80
038. 7-71
039. 7-67
040. 2-34
041. 6-61
042. 6-59
043. 7-70
044. 9-112
045. 6-64
046. 8-76
047. 5-49
048. 9-96
049. 3-25
050. 8-105
051. 5-52
052. 5-50
053. 8-77
054. 6-62
055. 9-79
056. Lost - three giant frogs with adrenaline and, a flying druidic staff with adrenaline, while I drew no improved fog shield
057. 9-113
058. 7-65
059. 8-82
060. 7-62
061. 8-87
062. 10-114
063. 7-80
064. 9-113
065. 6-61
066. 8-96
067. 7-71
068. 6-71
069. 1-6
070. 8-79
071. 4-47
072. 6-61
073. 11-124
074. 8-95
075. 11-116
076. 7-62
077. 7-79
078. 7-74
079. 10-93
080. 6-65
081. 8-78
082. 6-71
083. 9-77
084. 9-111
085. 6-56
086. 4-49
087. 7-77
088. 7-77
089. 7-60
090. 9-102
091. 6-63
092. 7-54
093. 6-60
094. 7-56
095. 6-57
096. 6-65
097. 9-94
098. 7-77
099. 8-73
100. 8-88
101. 1-6
102. 8-83
103. 8-108
104. 9-119
105. 7-61
106. Lost - nova rainbow graboid rush with perfect draw combo, my draw was below par and was over-run on turn 5
107. 7-66
108. 9-78
109. 8-64
110. 9-88
111. 9-86
112. 8-62
113. 11-100
114. 13-111
115. 1-6
116. 9-100
117. 7-62
118. 8-84
119. 8-90
120. 7-70
121. 8-68
122. 1-8
123. 7-80
124. 6-65
125. 9-100
126. 6-61
127. 6-64
128. 6-65
129. 7-77
130. 6-66
131. 7-69
132. 6-54
133. 8-83
134. 12-142
135. 13-165
136. 8-76
137. 8-95
138. 1-7
139. 6-66
140. 7-79
141. 7-72
142. 9-92
143. 5-42
144. 8-72
145. 1-7
146. 7-66
147. 10-101
148. 12-111
149. 8-79
150. 8-78
151. 11-122
152. 5-54
153. 5-54
154. 6-55
155. 9-101
156. Lost - rainbow immolation rush with 6 nymphs; 2 purple, 2 golden, and 2 amber - what's this doing in bronze arena?
157. 6-52
158. 8-79
159. 7-67
160. 9-96
161. 4-32
162. 8-69
163. 8-76
164. 7-70
165. 6-86
166. 6-54
167. 9-72
168. 8-87
169. 5-52
170. 7-67
171. Lost - mono dark with a great draw, only quanta source I drew was a damsel fly, I couldn't outpace the vampire draining / healing and eventually succumbed
172. 11-168
173. 2-18
174. 7-76
175. 7-69
176. 6-57
177. 5-48
178. 9-94
179. 8-98
180. 8-74
181. 6-58
182. 6-55
183. 9-86
184. 6-62
185. 7-63
186. 10-90
187. 7-57
188. 8-85
189. 8-74
190. 9-101
191. 9-77
192. 8-78
193. 6-55
194. 9-96
195. 7-98
196. 13-117
197. 7-72
198. 9-82
199. 5-45
200. 7-78


Won: 195
Lost: 5
Average Turns To Win: 7.215
Average Time To Win (secs): 73.410
Opponents With 1 HP: 10
Elemental Mastery: 24
Total Electrum Net: 4516
Average Electrum Net: 22.58
Cards From Spins: 105
Rare Cards (from above): 21


I did not sell any of the cards gained, nor included their value, in the electrum net calculations. So to whoever maintains this thread, you might want to consider those as well.

The criteria I set for this test was that I would try and win every game, above all else.

Wasn't trying to play as fast as I could, nor end with the most amount of health possible either - just win the game - if possible.

I adopted that approach, because anyone new to the deck, or wanting to grind through the Bronze arena, would likely want to win five games in a row, each and every time, to have a chance at the special spin counter.


Edit: Added more stats and card from spinner information.

[kaempfer13]

The original deck has a winrate of 97% according to stats. Your winrate of 97,5% is just a marginal statistical anomally. Thats just how good that deck is. Note that your win rate got closer to the expectancy value the more you played.
Also with your mod I would expect you to often have much more quanta than you need. With the original deck it happened to me more than once that I had an empty hand on turn 2 and ended the game with 40something-quanta (sometimes getting outrushed).
However it seems you lost twice because of lack of quanta and just up to 2 times due to too muchquanta/few creatures against the immobows. So maybe against almost strictly worse decks (bronze is usually all unupped in addition to mostly consisting of the least experienced players) its actually good to use more quanta-sources than what would make sense in an even PVP-environment.

[DeathKnyte]

Hi kaempfer13,

Yes, I played more than the original statistical evaluation of the deck - but as usual the law of averages get closer with the sample amounts.

I suppose that I am more used to playing decks from the darkness element, and the bronze arena is full of cards which destroy permanents, and mass effect creature control. Going below 8 pillars / pendulums is something I feel leery about. Often I find myself with no quanta sources after turn 3, due to destruction of the placed permanents and kills to the damsel flies. It takes a certain amount of self control, to actually hold back some of these cards in the beginning, so that I may place them later, or use as bait so the opponent targets those while conserving my shards, shield, or eagle eye. The difference of two points of quanta is significant around turns 4 through 8, when you are deciding whether to place another wyrm, shoot the eagle, or dive any wyrms already on the board.

I have little experience with PvP, this is why I'm concentrating on this area of the forum. But from what I have gathered, this deck needs to be upped in order to perform well, and thus would not be good there.

I have updated the post with more stat calculations and whith the amounts of cards and electrum recieved. I found it somewhat eye-opening, as to how profitable it actually turned out to be.

[serprex]

I've resorted the rankings to be by UEI for Silver/Gold/Plat, & SSPH for Bronze

Will get around updating new stats eventually

[Zawadx]

IMO Silver should be sorted by SSPH. People with a fully upped deck are much better off farming gold or plat to get electrum. But Silver is the best in terms of rares (or at least tied with Bronze), so that's a more likely objective for the silver grinder. Of course, one might be grinding for score, but since score gain is similar to electrum gain, I'd say Plat or Gold are better for score.

[CrockettRocket]

IMO Silver should be sorted by SSPH. People with a fully upped deck are much better off farming gold or plat to get electrum. But Silver is the best in terms of rares (or at least tied with Bronze), so that's a more likely objective for the silver grinder. Of course, one might be grinding for score, but since score gain is similar to electrum gain, I'd say Plat or Gold are better for score.

I agree completly but for me theirs a clear cut choice on which is better for score between gold and plat: gold.

[Higurashi]

We already know that Bronze is much better than Silver at SSPH since it's the best place of all for SSPH. The only exception is one anomalous test session with upped SoB Air rush which I don't think is a good piece of data when you look at the other results for upped Silver vs. upped Bronze. If you're farming Silver, you're doing it either for a combination of rares and electrum, or because it's closest to T50 :>

As such, UEI is the best way to sort Silver.

[worldwideweb3]

Tests against Bronze. Deck used: (not sure if made before, created a thread a while ago http://elementscommunity.org/forum/fire-31/mono-fire-cremate-deck-(shardless)/)

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6rk 6rk 7dg 7dg 7dg 7di 7di 7dm 7dm 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7du 7du 7f2 7f2 7f2 7f2 8po

Played: 66
Wins: 64
Losses: 2
TTW: 5.3
EM's: 14
WR: 96.97%

Removing 1hp decks faced:
Played: 51
Wins: 49
Losses: 2
TTW: 6.6
EM's: 3
WR: 96.1%

[Dm]

Heya

What value are we using to calculate Silver's UEI? I recently took an interest in this stuff so I decided to make a spreadsheet to run these numbers and etc. I took the formula from the Unified Efficiency Index thread as given:

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(333 * WR * SV * 0.75 * (1 + (EMR * 1.67)) * XHP / TTW) - (333 * (1-WR) * LV / TTW) + (333 * TSP * WR / TTW) + (333 * SSV / GPS / TTW)

Then, from the Table Given, I took the value of "60" as an average for Silver Wins ("Stated Value" or "SV")

Then, I inserted what I needed (I'm fairly certain that the methods to calculate WR / EMR are correct in the spreadsheet, and I only inserted TTW, EM, Wins, Losses, as well as the "Stated Value" constant of 60). For testing, I decided to take the best Silver Upped deck, with the followings :

W: 183   L: 17   WR: 91.5%   TTW: 6.34   EM: 16/183   EMR: 8.74%   UEI: 5037.35   SSPH: 10.46

These stats gave me a raw UEI of 4849.355. Tweaking a bit with the "stated value", I found that the given UEI is closer to a number between 64 and 65 Stated Value. (Possibly given an average?)

Then I took Mono Darkness Classic :

W: 50   L: 10   WR: 83.33%   TTW: 11.16   EM: 29/50   EMR: 58%   UEI: 3948.06   SSPH: 4.63

Again, with an stated value of 60, everything else is correct except for UEI, which gives me almost a whole thousand less at 3299.285. So I messed with the Stated Value and discovered that this could only hold if the stated value was at a huge Silver Arena peak of ~75 electrum.

Last I took the New 1.32 SoI as seen :
W: 81   L: 19   WR: 81%   TTW: 6   EM: 0/0   EMR: 0%   UEI: 3935.41   SSPH: 7.97

This time, the UEI is spot on with a 3935.406 (which rounds to 3935.41) with the exact stats given.

Are we calculating the values with a fluctuating Stated Value? Wouldn't that give large variances to the decks, which means that overall they actually perform worse than reported?  Or am I derping this hardcore and placed something wrong somewhere?

[CuCN]

CG added the UEI values to the OP in September 2013 (on page 30) and didn't state what value he was using. My guess is that the reward was about 75 then and it was assumed that it wouldn't change much.

[Dm]

Yeah, but if we calculate 1.32 SoI with 75 stated value then it becomes the 2nd best Silver Farmer overall at 4441.15 UEI. This needs to be fixed, no?