Decks Used Against Arena with Stats 1.32

[Keeps]

the deck FEVER and how drastically different the results were for various people.  With people actually recording stats well, made me really think I had a good example of a theory I had.

The Theory, on certain days, or at certain times of days, more decks might be at low hitpoints because of when people login and play.  That certain decks become more preferable at certain times, allowing certain decks to rule the top any given week.  The result is, it's almost impossible to say one deck is better than another to farm with.  Just that some people have been able to have high win rates compared to most decks with a specific set of decks.

So since my migraine on Saturday.  I've been playing this game again, I should stop, but well...

So here is my test at 1:00 EST each day, I played 10 games with FEVER in bronze and recorded, 1 hp, low hp, normal or high hp, win, loss, and spin

I've played FEVER, 5 times 10 games 10 different days

Saturday,
1x 1 hp
4x Low HP
5 x Norm HP
9 wins, 1 lose, 1 spin

Sunday,
1 x Low HP
9 x Norm HP
2 wins, 8, losses, 0 spins

Monday,
1 x 1 hp
1x Low hp
8 x Norm HP
5 wins, 5 losses 0 spins

Tuesday
1 x 1 hp
6 x Low hp
3 x Norm hp
9 wins 1 loss 1 spin

I'm going to finish this out, as I think there might be two humps that form in bronze.  But it's an interesting test.  It stands to reason for example, if you grind a league with the same deck enough, and enough people are using decks with similar strengths and weaknesses, you would start falling into losing streaks in arena.

[nireus]

Testing the top upped decks for Bronze and Silver leagues (FEVER and Silver PSNbow), I found out (as other players have already stated) that their win rate is lower than expected. But this could've been as well the result of facing counter decks. Anyway, although I used to believe that PDials couldn't be used in lower leagues with the same results as in Gold and Plat, mostly because of the low damage of the decks, I recently decided to give them a try vs Silver since I couldn't get the SSs I was expecting using other decks. The results were pretty good till now and although I didn't keep any stats I found myself getting many wins and SSs, enough EMs and... this vs #2

Spoiler for Hidden:

[TribalTrouble]

@Keeps what did you categorize normal and low etc. HP as being exactly?

[ColorlessGreen]

The Theory, on certain days, or at certain times of days, more decks might be at low hitpoints because of when people login and play.

If you're interested in this, it may be worth noting that the leaderboard screens show deck age, so it would be quite trivial to pull down the entire data set from the arena at various times of day/days of the week and get data on the fluctuations in deck age that way while being able to look at 100% of the data set instead of 1/50th of the data set.

edit: OP updated with all valid tests through this post.

[ColorlessGreen]

So I recently noticed that the Arena TADA 1.32, built specifically for gold/platinum, was only tested in silver (and was tested in silver using the gold/plat build rather than the silver build). So anyways, I decided to rectify the gold/plat part of this situation:


Gold:
Arena TADA 1.32 (Gold version), By kev, Submitted by ColorlessGreen
W: 51   L: 49   WR: 51%   TTW: 8.73   EM: 6/51   EMR: 11.76%   UEI: 6285.53   SSPH: 2.86

Spoiler for Hidden:

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u5 6u5 6u5 713 74f 74f 74f 77g 77g 7ae 7ah 7dq 7gq 7gq 7ju 7mu 7t9 7t9 80g 8pj

Plat:
Arena TADA 1.32 (Gold version), By kev, Submitted by ColorlessGreen
W: 17   L: 34   WR: 33.33%   TTW: 8.53   EM: 3/17   EMR: 17.65%   UEI: 7095.86   SSPH: 3.25

Spoiler for Hidden:

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u5 6u5 6u5 713 74f 74f 74f 77g 77g 7ae 7ah 7dq 7gq 7gq 7ju 7mu 7t9 7t9 80g 8pj

Despite the relatively low win rate in plat, this is pretty high up the UEI/SSPH lists in both leagues.

Note to self: OP currently current through here.

[Keolino]

Note to self: OP currently current through here.

Pitchblack Hole doesn't have the right deck code in the OP.
And i made a thread for it (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/rainbow-decks/pitchblack-hole-%28upped%29%28silver%29%28shardless%29%281-32%29/

[ColorlessGreen]

Note to self: OP currently current through here.

Pitchblack Hole doesn't have the right deck code in the OP.
And i made a thread for it (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/rainbow-decks/pitchblack-hole-%28upped%29%28silver%29%28shardless%29%281-32%29/

Eh, I just thought we needed yet another entry for mono air.

Spoiler for Hidden:

Thanks for catching that. Fixed!

[SpikeSpiegel]

[00:09:29] ColorlessGreen: spike: you should post your tests to the arena stats thread, and feel free to post megron's to there also if you feel like it. if not i'll bug him to do it whenever i see him

Yes Sir!

Pitchblack hole vs Arena Silver:

Games played: 50
Games won: 40
Win rate: 80.0%
EM: 4
EM rate: 8.0 %
Average TTW: 7.975
Electrum earned: 2719
Cards obtained: 16
Special spins: 5

[MegroN]

Pitchblack hole vs Arena Silver:


Games played: 50
Games won: 38
Win rate: 76
EM: 7
Average TTW: 7.553

[ColorlessGreen]

Would a running list of things that need tested be useful?

[Dm]

OTADA vs Arena Silver:

W: 80
L: 20
Win Ratio : 80%
EM: 14
EM ratio : 17,5%
TTW: 8,61
SSPH 5.37
UEI 3986.98

[Grizzox]

Silver PSNBow vs Silver Arena

W: 34
L: 16
Win Ration: 68%
EM: 4 (3 were 1HP decks)
TTW: 7.36
TTL: 7.88
SSPH: 4