[OUTDATED] Turns to win study

[hermantheowl]

Fire Lava Destroyer Rush "verision 0.5" (you can build it before you have enough upgrades for "Fire Lava Destroyer Rush Version 2" from the ttw study list)
-Upgraded verion of an unupped lava golem t50 deck
-no changes except upgrades
-gradually upgraded from an upupped one (Immolation, then golems, then pillars)

Code: [Select]

5f2 5f2 5f6 5f6 5f6 5fb 5fb 5l9 5l9 5l9 5l9 5l9 5l9 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq

Total so far:
75 games
Wins 73
losses 2
average turns to win: 6.342


detailed stats:
total:
turns to win
4: 6
5: 14
6: 26
7: 17
8: 4
9: 3
10: 1
11: 3

average
6.342 ttw


Will do 25 at a time.
vs AI 3
round 1:
Wins 24
Losses 1 (2 stupid miracles at least 13 turns)


ttw
5:8
6:9
7:6
9:1
11:1

average: 6.5

Round 2
Wins 24
Losses 1 (stupid entropy darkenss, 7ish turns)

ttw
4: 4
5: 2
6: 10
7: 4
8: 2
9: 1
11: 1

average 6.25

round 3:
wins 25
losses 0

ttw
4: 2
5: 4
6: 7
7: 7
8: 2
9: 1
10: 1
11: 1

average ttw 6.28



Not sure if I did the average right. Did not included turrns taken in games I lost. Divided by number of games won.

[guolin]

Upgraded verion of a Beginner freindly unupped lava golem t50 deck,  (no changes except upgrades)

Code: [Select]

5f2 5f2 5f6 5f6 5f6 5fb 5fb 5l9 5l9 5l9 5l9 5l9 5l9 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dg 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq 7dq
Total so far:
50 games
Wins 48
losses 2

turns to win
4: 4
5: 10
6: 19
7: 10
8: 2
9: 2
11: 2

average
6. 375 ttw


Will do 25 at a time.
vs AI 3
round 1:
Wins 24
Losses 1 (2 stupid miracles at least 13 turns)


ttw
5:8
6:9
7:6
9:1
11:1

average: 6.5

Round 2
Wins 24
Losses 1 (stupid entropy darkenss, 7ish turns)

ttw
4: 4
5: 2
6: 10
7: 4
8: 2
7: 4
9: 1
11: 1

average 6.25


Not sure if I did the average right. Did not included turrns taken in games I lost. Divided by number of games won.

Losses count as 15 ttw for me.

[kobisjeruk]

losses should not count. if you lose, you lose
this is a turn to win study, putting a weighted value on losses will significantly alter ttw for deck
if a particular deck suffer a lot of losses, that means it is not good but that doesnt necessarily mean it is slow

[jmdt]

losses should not count. if you lose, you lose
this is a turn to win study, putting a weighted value on losses will significantly alter ttw for deck
if a particular deck suffer a lot of losses, that means it is not good but that doesnt necessarily mean it is slow

Exactly.  Losses should be counted separately as they are a good indication of how stable the deck is or isn't.  There are some decks that lose a bunch, but are super fast when they work.  Others are slower, but will essentially never lose.  The losses tally is equally as important as the ttw value when determining the worth of a deck.

[kobisjeruk]

it can be said that the goal is to find fast deck(s), so slow deck equates fail/lose (who wants to grind using a deck with ttw of 15 but never lose anyway?) but that should not  make it on par with fast deck that losses a lot
of course we need to define what is exactly 'a lot' here...i'd say any deck that losses more than 10 (out of 200 games) is a lot

[guolin]

Huh, if losses don't count, then the ttw for No Land Stompy when I used it would be like 6.5.

[jmdt]

it can be said that the goal is to find fast deck(s), so slow deck equates fail/lose (who wants to grind using a deck with ttw of 15 but never lose anyway?) but that should not  make it on par with fast deck that losses a lot
of course we need to define what is exactly 'a lot' here...i'd say any deck that losses more than 10 (out of 200 games) is a lot

We'll I don't have enought 200 game data yet to conclusively say 10 games is a good/bad deck cut off.   What I will say is the number will be different for upped and unupped decks.

A good example of this concept in practice is 2 unupped decks that see a lot of play lately: no land stompy and mono death.  No land stompy is 0.6 turns faster than mono death, however has 3 times as many losses (18 to 6).  Feedback from noobs tells me that mono death is a great farming deck and I get very few complaints.  Its a very easy deck to use to full potential.  No land stompy has more mixed reviews; some people think its great and other noobs just can't win with it.  From personal experience with it, no land stompy is a more advanced deck that takes a bit of skill to use and probably won't achieve the listed ttw with a noob using it.

So basically, mono death is a better farmer although not as fast as some other unupped decks.

[jmdt]

Stats updated for Frogtal.  I has amazing luck the first 50 games I tested previously.  This go around I didn't have the same luck, but the deck did remain pretty fast regardless.  Since there are only 4 fractals and the deck relys on fractal,  every so often the deck can lead to terrible draws.

Just to show how much the stats can change after a few games:
50: 6.020 ttw 100: 6.438 ttw 150: 6.517 ttw 200: 6.565 ttw

ttw: 6.565

losses: 7

ttw4: 1
ttw5: 41
ttw6: 75
ttw7: 38
ttw8: 19
ttw9: 12
ttw10: 1
ttw11: 3
ttw12: 2
ttw13: 0
ttw14: 0
ttw15: 1

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7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 7ae 808 808 808 808 808 808 80i 80i 80i 80iMore updated stats to come.

[hrmmm]

results for the pegasus-light rush:

avg ttw: 8.11 (200 games)

em: 2
losses: 29

ttw 6: 2
ttw 7: 64
ttw 8: 59
ttw 9: 23
ttw 10: 11
ttw 11: 6
ttw 12: 6

avg. ttw for 50 games each: 7.98 -- 8.21 -- 8.36 -- 7.87

Code: [Select]

5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5l8 5la 5la 5la 5lb 5lb 5lb 5lb 5lb 5lb 5lf 5lf 5lf 5lf 5lf 5lfin average this one has about the same speed like the death rush. but it is less consistent and looses abit more often (85.5% win)
its pretty vulnerable to cc (2hp of a pegasus isnt that much). often you have to draw a 2nd pegasus or wait a turn so you can play a blessed one.
it also lacks a bit of optimal draws -- getting just 3 pillars also costs you one turn (pegasus=4light quanta).
but if you get the blessings running its fast and dangerous.
i was thinking about adding 1 more pillar (-1dragon), but then...
... anyways i had luck with the draw after this:

edit:correct a math fail

[bucky1andonly]

(http://helltgivre.free.fr/elements/?mark=4ss&deck=z45fcz65l9z26rlz67dpz67dqz67qb)
ttw4-9
ttw5-17
ttw6-9
ttw7-9
ttw8-4
ttw9-0
ttw10-1
ttw11-1

ttw = 5.82
losses = 0
50 games

majority of the 7, all of the 8 ttws i started with a cremation or photon, but not both, but always a precog in my hand, so by the 2nd and 3rd turn i was stomping again
ttw 10 and 11 i faced the ai3 that uses heals, and both times i swear he had all of them : /
i would rather use 2 vamp daggers, but i dont have any, would help prevent losses : )

[josh223123]

which of the unupped decks do u recommend making?

[jmdt]

which of the unupped decks do u recommend making?

I generally recommend the mono death deck.