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Offline Onizuka

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg368214#msg368214
« Reply #168 on: July 19, 2011, 08:02:18 am »
Most people can be antagon FG farmers. FGs have fairly easy strategies (most of them).

  deck     Flay 'EM   
  players     Onizuka   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     33%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     32.65%   
  games    300 
  Score/h     160   
  win-loss-(EM)     99-201-(6)   
  Score/h (n)    153   
  time (h:m:s)     16:00:50   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  2495   
  min/game     03:12   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  2481   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   -1253
   -310
   -1121
   -379
   708
   -793
   -412
   945
   -558
   844
   724
   450
   -502
   -181   
   -963
   561
   -502
   670
   392
   -454
   1031
   -700
   -1266
   377
   827
   -846
   -163
   -886
   824
   -1253
   1931
   -1121
   -379
   4210
   -793
   946
   5108
   375
   4861
   4363
   3812
   602
   1978   
   -963
   3278
   -502
   3863
   2837
   810
   5529
   88
   -1266
   2968
   5042
   -846
   1517
   -886
   5492
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   
   1
   
   
   6 
   
   2
   10
   1
   3
   8
   8
   1
   2
   
   6
   
   7
   8
   1
   11
   1
   
   5
   11
   
   2
   
   5
    6
    4
    11
    7
    2 
    11
    13
    1
    10
    1
    4
    9
    8
    8
    8
    5
    14
    1
    7
    7
   
    14
    7
    5
    3
    11
    8
    12
    4
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     1
     
     
     
     
     4
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     1
"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?en84n1ahxb0gq9a


Few notes:
Graviton win was epic.
I could totally dig a purify here. Would EM ALOT more.
Only times I quit were A) PA'd Pulvy
B) Quinted BE'd creature.


You're just as selfish as I am. You're just not as good at it yet.

Offline gumbeh

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg368221#msg368221
« Reply #169 on: July 19, 2011, 08:20:33 am »
The above is yet not to be understood as a call for mediocrity ...
You should still try your very best at any given time.
Yeah, I understand. Mistakes are allowed, but we are to do the best we can.

I put on a pretty srsbzness face and insta-hit the spacebar like a boss if I don't draw the 2 or 3 cards I actually care about for this deck, once its defenses are in place.

I've had to throw out a few games due to major distractions, such as the doorbell, which would otherwise skew my results.

kirchj33

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg368451#msg368451
« Reply #170 on: July 19, 2011, 08:53:17 pm »
  deck     CCYB - Slim   
  players     kirchj33   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     45.5%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     48.62%   
  games    200 
  Score/h     412   
  win-loss-(EM)     91-109-(22)   
  Score/h (n)    451   
  time (h:m:s)     13:00:29   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3093   
  min/game     03:54   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3191   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   -113
   187
   -651
   819
   1229
   -282
   137
   728
   -334
   583
   176
   865
   98
   720   
   -305
   567
   120
   378
   840
   830
   872
   522
   811
   530
   640
   -610
   167
   315
   658
   1855
   3242
   -651
   4079
   5682
   1044
   2049
   3252
   1017
   4385
   1738
   5132
   2224
   4822   
   1333
   3465
   2001
   2353
   5053
   4252
   4244
   4116
   4144
   3473
   4230
   -610
   2671
   2347
   4522
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   2
   2
   
   6
   6 
   1
   1
   6
   1
   4
   2
   6
   4
   7
   2
   2
   3
   4
   3
   5
   2
   3
   4
   4
   2
   
   2
   3
   4
    7
    4
    6
    2
     
    5
    2
    4
    6
    5
    4
    1
    8
    5
    10
    1
    6
    2
    1
   
    1
    3
    2
    3
    1
    9
    3
    3
    5
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     
     
     
     4
     4
     
     
     1
     
     2
     1
     
     
     1
     
     
     
     1
     
     1
     2
     
     3
     1
     
     
     
     
     1
"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?0ehlxnyt3hcwh1u (http://www.mediafire.com/?0ehlxnyt3hcwh1u)

Offline Found2

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg369142#msg369142
« Reply #171 on: July 21, 2011, 05:53:41 am »
  deck     I've  GotP time   
  players     Found2   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     65,67%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     65,27%   
  games    300 
  Score/h     611   
  win-loss-(EM)     197-103-(145)   
  Score/h (n)    614   
  time (h:m:s)     30:34:02   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3176   
  min/game     06:07   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3202   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   843
   481
   670
   -370
   995
   767
   -137
   980
   252
   819
   1040
   938
   345
   615   
   318
   962
   116
   826
   843
   642
   952
   85
   949
   616
   938
   -76
   177
   212
   840
   4289
   2850
   3481
   -370
   4398
   4037
   669
   4294
   2451
   3737
   4557
   4267
   2202
   3443   
   2491
   4293
   1296
   3620
   4060
   3501
   4171
   1638
   4619
   3294
   4112
   668
   1962
   1522
   4501
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   12
   4
   6
   0
   17 
   5
   1
   8
   3
   10
   10
   8
   6
   6
   5
   12
   3
   12
   7
   9
   7
   2
   4
   8
   12
   3
   4
   6
   7
    3
    5
    3
    10
    0 
    3
    5
    0
    6
    2
    0
    0
    6
    3
    9
    0
    6
    0
    2
    1
    0
    5
    2
    2
    0
    15
    5
    7
    3
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
   0
     6
     4
     4
     0
     16
     4
     0
     8
     2
     10
     10
     6
     3
     2
     4
     11
     1
     12
     6
     0
     7
     1
     4
     4
     12
     2
     0
     3
     3
"      
https://rapidshare.com/files/4273014463/Stats_Found2_IvegotPtime.xls      

So, now I've the 300 games together. The values didn't change a lot so they were consistant before. Thanks to 10men's remark I was also able to win vs. Jezebel. Jeah!  ;)
Is there a statistic if some gods are more common than others? Because I played 17 times vs destiny and 18 times vs rainbow but only 6 times vs Octane and only 7 times vs Neptune and Obliterator... Is it just "luck" (in case of Rainbow it isn't in case of Destiny it is ;) )?


@Jangoo: It is absolutely clear to me that skips should be avoided. An experienced player is able to know when he's going to loose, but it's not the player - it's the deck which is under observation.
So, I'm now "free" for new challanges. If there is a deck I should start to test without any exercise (in the new deck of couse) just tell me which one...

JoshK

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg369210#msg369210
« Reply #172 on: July 21, 2011, 12:29:34 pm »
I'm willing to test a deck if anybody needs more data on something.  Let me know.

kirchj33

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg369271#msg369271
« Reply #173 on: July 21, 2011, 02:53:59 pm »
@JoshK - Follow the protocol outline in the instructions if you would like to test.

@Found2 - We only need a few more decks tested before we have data on all.  I believe YCH will come through with CCYB unupped as soon as he gets his computer, a couple people are on Almost Completely Unupped blah blah, one of them being Onizuka so we're fine there.  I am 2/3rds done with Cover and Cry, but nobody in their right mind is gonna want to do that deck anyways.  I am not sure if our Eternal Chaos tester will come through.  It would be nice if you could do that, or any of the top 5 or 6 upped decks so we can get them to 500 games.  I'd like to get at least those decks to 500 so we can start removing skip data.  Just let me know.  Also, you need to post the excel file.  Thanks.

Veen

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg369275#msg369275
« Reply #174 on: July 21, 2011, 03:00:20 pm »
Hey Kirchj33,

Any chance VVV can get tested? I would be honored.

kirchj33

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg369280#msg369280
« Reply #175 on: July 21, 2011, 03:04:49 pm »
VVV is currently being tested by Gumbeh.

Offline Found2

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg369291#msg369291
« Reply #176 on: July 21, 2011, 03:17:20 pm »
@JoshK - Follow the protocol outline in the instructions if you would like to test.

@Found2 - We only need a few more decks tested before we have data on all.  I believe YCH will come through with CCYB unupped as soon as he gets his computer, a couple people are on Almost Completely Unupped blah blah, one of them being Onizuka so we're fine there.  I am 2/3rds done with Cover and Cry, but nobody in their right mind is gonna want to do that deck anyways.  I am not sure if our Eternal Chaos tester will come through.  It would be nice if you could do that, or any of the top 5 or 6 upped decks so we can get them to 500 games.  I'd like to get at least those decks to 500 so we can start removing skip data.  Just let me know.  Also, you need to post the excel file.  Thanks.
OK, then I start to do Eternal Chaos. I once tried this deck and I didn't like it very much but doesn't matter. The Excelfile I already posted but moved it to a spoiler...
Here it is once again: https://rapidshare.com/files/4273014463/Stats_Found2_IvegotPtime.xls



Offline gumbeh

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg370011#msg370011
« Reply #177 on: July 22, 2011, 11:09:09 pm »
  deck     Veen's Vicious Viotech   
  players     Gumbeh   
  version    1.283   
  win-rate     47%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     n.a.   
  games    100 
  Score/h     505   
  win-loss-(EM)     47-53-(29)   
  Score/h (n)    n.a.   
  time (h:m:s)     06:41:38   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3275   
  min/game     04:01   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  n.a.   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%
      
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   -1077
   793
   200
   954
   740
   -7200
   -571
   1394
   262
   418
   567
   805
   -1271
   -549   
   -768
   1363
   451
   -13
   1034
   957
   1358
   217
   330
   437
   1305
   -713
   635
   916
   338
   -1077
   4002
   2912
   4609
   4077
   -7200
   -571
   6108
   2586
   3168
   3165
   4436
   -1271
   -549   
   -768
   5974
   2918
   949
   5340
   4845
   5955
   2178
   3216
   2860
   5721
   -713
   3712
   4460
   3293
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   
   3
   1
   3
   1 
   
   
   2
   2
   2
   1
   2
   
   
   
   2
   2
   1
   5
   3
   2
   2
   2
   3
   1
   
   4
   2
   1
    4
   
    3
   
    1 
    1
    1
   
    4
    3
   
    2
    1
    3
    3
   
    2
    3
    1
    2
   
    5
    3
    2
   
    4
    3
    1
    1
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     
     1
     1
     2
     1
     
     
     2
     1
     1
     
     2
     
     
     
     2
     1
     
     2
     3
     2
     2
     
     1
     1
     
     2
     2
     
I see now why other people are rich and I am not. I have NEVER played this many times, or this consistently, with anything. Usually I do 2 to 5 games with any given deck, then I either try a new deck, read the forums, hit PVP2, or simply play another game. For the purposes of testing I managed to do as many as 15 games in one sitting... I did not like it, but my electrum balance looks very nice now.

More VVV testing is needed to get everything normalized... I ran into Morte and Miracle repeatedly, but didn't manage to encounter Paradox until my ninety-fifth game. I was thinking I might have to submit without him, but fortunately he did stop by for a single game. Results were consistent with my predictions as well as the deck author's description of VVV vs Paradox, nevertheless 2 additional easy EMs are necessary for rigor and for a "normalized" data point.

kirchj33

  • Guest
Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg370024#msg370024
« Reply #178 on: July 23, 2011, 12:00:07 am »
Good work Gumbeh.  Will you finish to normalization or will you take a break?  (ie. should I find someone to finish testing to normalization?)  Stats for VVV look very nice, somewhat unexpected.

Offline gumbeh

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg370079#msg370079
« Reply #179 on: July 23, 2011, 03:32:42 am »
I think the EMs are really what drive up this particular FGei. They can happen against almost any god - it was a really nice surprise to periodically EM an FG out of the blue against whom I'd previously lost several matches.

I'll keep playing 5 matches here and there just for financial reasons (and record data meanwhile), but I'm taking a break from hardcore testing for now. 'Sides, it's probably good to have multiple testers' stats diluting the effect of individual performance. Found was looking for work, right? Maybe 50 games will hammer it in if he can track down the elusive Paradox.

Only one match vs DG so far... TBH I think we could just artificially set the losses at 3 and put 10 or 20 seconds per loss in there. Just to normalize that particular FG. It's not like anything different can happen with DG. I didn't do it myself just because I wanted to submit the idea to you guys along with my 100 real matches.

 

anything
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