[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[CCCombobreaker]

Updated my original post.  And yes, while trying to find Neptune again I won 28 of 41 matches, bringing my win rate for 38% to 43%.  It was partially better matchups, but really I was drawing Lobos early when it counted.  If I was going to run this deck for farm, I'd put a 3rd Electrocutor in even if that put me at 31 cards.  Having one in the top 10 cards makes all the difference in half the matchups.

[kirchj33]

Ran the games myself for Polari's deck: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,23368.0.html (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,23368.0.html)

Took me a while to get 3 matches with Neptune, which is why I am so far over 200 games.  Also, I want to point out that this deck has a very unique kind of rhythm vs some of the FGs.  I was at 30% win rate after 100 games, and when I ended it was 44%.  So I have no doubt that this deck gets 45% (which Polari had at 300 games https://spreadsheets0.google.com/pub?hl=en_GB&hl=en_GB&key=0AgxDeoyDoRYZdGFiUzNLRjNEZGVhMk5kalJBc3c1N1E&output=html (https://spreadsheets0.google.com/pub?hl=en_GB&hl=en_GB&key=0AgxDeoyDoRYZdGFiUzNLRjNEZGVhMk5kalJBc3c1N1E&output=html)) if you have a good feel for when to play shields, SoGs, or Dragons vs the different FGs.  But since he didn't use StatsMasta...

deck	Mono Aether FG Farmer
players	CCCombobreaker

version	1.27		win-rate	43.57%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	44.4%
games	241		Score/h	503
win-loss-(EM)	105-136-(53)		Score/h (n)	535
time (h:m:s)	13:04:30		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3644
min/game	03:15		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3804

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
197    -691    1220    -243    1821    -693    895    0    -297    -731    1164    282    -524    -373       488    970    -94    1696    465    912    1988    250    313    1110    1008    -652    776    141    1191	2869    -691    6341    1268    8640    -693    5246    1822    1811    -731    6036    2651    182    807       4678    4975    1481    7433    2682    5319    8713    3281    3997    5400    5314    -652    5237    1720    7111	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	1        8    2    14         4    1    1        5    5    1    1    4    8    2    4    6    8    3    3    2    6    5        5    3    3	3     8     2     11           7     4     3     4     6     3     9     12     7     5     3     7         6     2         7     3     3     2     9     2     7     1		1            4      1      7            3                        4      2                        5            4      5      1      3      2            6      3                  2

"      
      

Also, as instructed I stuck out every match that even had a slight chance of winning, but you could definitely get a little faster by jumping out against some FGs when it sucks (which is usually not getting a Lobo by turn 5 against FireQueen, Osiris, or Gemini).  And having these stats, I can say which FGs are worth skipping, which would also save anyone else wants to run this some time.


*note, I tried to upload the spreadsheet as an attachment but it said it took too long or was to big or something
** note, I used the links you so helpfully provided to upload it: http://www.mediafire.com/?gr0lfgvg5if0k18

Really good information, thanks!  Its good to see people in the community supporting other solid decks and backing it up with statistics instead of "this works good".  I am discussing with Jangoo about how to integrate this work into the original study.

[Jangoo]

Well ... hit a somewhat unlucky streak towards the end and the win-rate came crashing down from 55%.
Other than that, amazing gameplay  :

deck	CCYB (slim w/ PA)
players	Jangoo

version	1.27		win-rate	50%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	n.a.
games	100		Score/h	478
win-loss-(EM)	50-50-(13)		Score/h (n)	n.a.
time (h:m:s)	06:33:59		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3400
min/game	03:56		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	n.a.

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-815    -1095    908    796    1527    -956    -607    -571    -977    553    360    799    110    1228       158    775    -85    599    635    441    1217    838    956    414    1040    -17    -553    1204    -783	-815    -1095    4920    4274    6691    -956    -607    -571    -977    4078    3064    5092    2554    6964       2409    4215    642    3357    4000    3296    6025    5183    5317    3294    5735    1621    -553    6638    -783	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	3    4    3                     1    2    3    1    2    2    3    1    4    3    1    3    2    6    1    3    1        1	2     3     1     2           3     4     2     2     1     2     1     2         5     1     4     1     1     1         1     2     1         3     3     1     1		1      2      3                                                            1      1            1                  1            2                              1

"      
      

.xls-FILE (https://rapidshare.com/files/1707172209/CCYBslim_Jangoo.xls)

[kirchj33]

Some bookkeeping notes:

Added Polari's deck w/ stats from CCCArranged decks with preliminary data in order of FGei for those that have reached cumulative normalized data thanks to help from JangooData will be teased out for skips for a skip-related FGei once the study is closer to being completeAdded suggested decks for future additions, now would be an appropriate time to begin discussion for future decks as people are finishing testing on the current decks

[Higurashi]

In case it hasn't been mentioned, this is the updated LS/AM: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,17730
All pends makes it much more reliable.

[kirchj33]

In case it hasn't been mentioned, this is the updated LS/AM: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,17730
All pends makes it much more reliable.

Thanks.  I will update the deck as no person has claimed to be testing it yet.

[Onizuka]

200 games, soon will be 300.

Figured I'd post it, since I finally got a game against Neptune (exactly 200

deck	Turbo Speed False God Farming
players	Onizuka

version	1.27		win-rate	44%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	n.a.
games	200		Score/h	456
win-loss-(EM)	88-112-(21)		Score/h (n)	n.a.
time (h:m:s)	09:49:39		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3887
min/game	02:57		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	n.a.

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-463    546    281    -200    1694    1783    1069    996    -394    -324    1370    167    -817    -113       -606    355    129    1042    535    -848    -292    -977    -1421    1313    887    -428    634    278    1023	965    4196    4508    1154    8650    9276    5920    5510    917    384    7252    3378    -817    2319       1523    3914    1834    4915    3834    -848    -292    -977    -1421    6876    4931    -428    5604    3419    7128	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	1    8    4    1    9     4    7    7    1    1    5    2        2    1    2    2    5    4                    4    4        5    3    6	7     6     6     6               3     2     6     8         4     9     6     6     4     5     1     4     3     1     4     3     1         3     5     5     4		1      3      1      3      2                  1                              1      1      4      1                              2                              1

      

[Higurashi]

Holy FGei, Batman. 
Gotta ask though, why 6 Fractals?

[kirchj33]

@Oni, wow that's some aweful luck.  Keep up the good work!

@Higs, I just modded the original deck by Seravy to update it a little.  I'm looking forward to seeing how it compares to some of the other rollyhopers.

[Higurashi]

That's pretty much why I asked. No modern RoL/Hope decks use 6 Fractals, since 4-5 is better. So.. I dunno about "updated".

[kirchj33]

That's pretty much why I asked. No modern RoL/Hope decks use 6 Fractals, since 4-5 is better. So.. I dunno about "updated".

Hence, the "little bit" part.  I am trying my best to keep the decks true to their original forms at this point before we get into variants.

[Higurashi]

I don't think you could be more wrong, in that case. Adding SoG's changes it a LOT more than removing one Fractal. Main reason for this being that with 3 Electrocutors and only 8 quanta sources, it's slowed down significantly in the early game by SoG's.