[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[kirchj33]

This is my first deck ready for posting with normalized stats.  It should be used as an example if people are unclear:

deck	CCYB (40 Card)
players	kirchj33

version	1.27		win-rate	45.03%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	45.68%
games	191		Score/h	395
win-loss-(EM)	86-105-(40)		Score/h (n)	398
time (h:m:s)	13:51:43		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	2814
min/game	04:21		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	2802

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
166    734    470    1117    743    -92    -59    98    -993    256    -455    335    -66    578       -447    743    -127    514    528    940    1234    282    967    767    447    -85    -147    -632    459	2148    4402    3175    5019    3873    1952    1582    1420    -993    2792    -455    2714    1587    3384       335    3618    621    2837    3149    4364    5408    2786    4855    3651    2849    1064    961    -632    4190	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	2    5    3    6    6     1    2    2        3        3    1    6    1    2    1    3    5    3    7    2    5    5    5    1    2        4	3     3     3         3      3     6     6     7     6     3     3     3     3     10     1     5     2     2             4     1     2     3     5     8     5     5		2      1      5      4                  2            1                        1            2            2      1      2      7      1      3      5            1

"      
      

   
      
Excel link: CCYB - Fat 40 Card variant (https://rapidshare.com/files/1527110364/Statmasta4000_-_CCYB_40_Card.xls)

Edit: I updated the stats for my testing with this deck to a completed and normalized version.  I do not plan on completing further testing for this variant any time in the near future.

[Genuinous]

That's pretty interesting Few changes make quite a difference between Fat and Slim. I can't beat Dream Catcher but 4/5 with 2 EMs against Seism.

[Jangoo]

Well, a rough estimate for the earned score would be
43*50 (for the normal wins) + 5*120 (for EMs) (= 2750)
- 52*30 (=1560)
=1190
divided by 5.66 h makes 210 points per hour.

The number for score/hour seems wrong... I think the program forgot that you lose 30 for every loss.

Actually, for a rough guess outside genuinous's played reality it should be more like:

48*77 + 5*120 - 52*30 / 5,66h =  ~480  -->  genuinous's score/h is fine

77 is the middle-ground of score gain against FGs (with 50HPs left) and score is always:
 electrum won + 30, so it ranges from 65 to 89 per regular win!

I can assure you that the Statmasta has been crafted to perfection during many many hours ...
just forgetting about something as basic as substracting 30 score for each loss is really not
something I would anticipate. 

The only way the score can be messed up is false user-input, e.g. if you enter way too high electrum
amounts accidentally or if you record your EMs as regular wins with 120electrum won ...
(For the latter, you should get an immediate warning unless you also blew entering the EMs as EMs out of wins.)

----

I uploaded to RapidShare after playing a couple more games (https://rapidshare.com/files/461374351/Statmasta4000.xls)
I hope this is good now *keeps farming*

I uploaded it to RapidShare, take a look. For me it looks good, but I might be wrong... Jangoo?

Looks great genuinous: No active warnings, realistic electrum amounts
and realistic stats calculated and displayed from all this.
All good.

[Genuinous]

First I got confused by the little !!!. But then I realized it's amazingly useful, when you forget or mess up something, it won't screw all your stats. Great addition

[tttt]

I LOVE the idea of this thread. Literally. I would marry it and make sensual love to it if it were a woman.

However, the only stats I can take are win/loss and card drops. I don't and can't accurately take TTW, EM and Game Lenght. I play at work, and there are games where I leave the computer for an hour and come back later to finish it, hence 6000+ second games. TTW and EM are also dependent on my mood, sometimes I'll stall the game for an EM, other times I'd rush it for a quicker end. Also, I prefer skipping when I see my chance of winning is extremely small.

With that said, I'll soon have a stat/guide for a ccyb mod posted.

[10 men]

Actually, for a rough guess outside genuinous's played reality it should be more like:

43*77 + 5*120 - 52*30 / 5,66h =  ~415  -->  genuinous's score/h is fine

77 is the middle-ground of score gain against FGs (with 50HPs left) and score is always:
 electrum won + 30, so it ranges from 65 to 89 per regular win!

I should read the wiki more lol.
But I fixed the 43 normal wins back for you, I may not have anticipated the awesomeness of the STATMASTA, but I can subtract 48-5.
So yeah, Genuinous' score / hour should be fine, as you usually have above-average HP left.

Also, this looks like a very interesting study, and I'm very much looking forward to the results.

[Jangoo]

Ooops ... well ... so much for basic mistakes. But like I said, I can assure you ... erm ... *cough ... 

Btw, that information is not in the wiki. A bunch of test-games had to be played
to extract the formula for HPs left and their relation to electrum- and score-gain.

[Genuinous]

deck	CCYB Slim
players	Genuinous

version	1.27		win-rate	45.75%
$ track ?	disabled		win-rate (n)	49.12%
games	153		Score/h	389 ~
win-loss-(EM)	70-83-(10)		Score/h (n)	441 ~
time (h:m:s)	08:33:23		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3500
min/game	03:21		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3658

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
Okay, so here I present the normalized rates as well. I'll keep going until 200 games, to have it round.
And yes, I'll upload the whole file once I am ready, just I feel like having only changed, that I have normalized rates, it's pointless to upload it. So I keep that in mind and keep farming.
By the way, I saw tttt's study of the same deck for 1000 games. We have a bit different results, but you will figure it out

ps.: It's quite funny that both kirchj and I posted at the same time Looks like 153 games are required in order to fight each false god 3 times.

[Jangoo]

Nice stats ... I'm only down some 30games with this deck now and got a largely higher win-rate but also
much slower games. (=about the same FGei lol) Curious to see what the next 70games will bring.

The little "~" behind your score-stats indicates that there is something wrong with your electrum-input,
hence the total score-stats are set to "just an approximation" (~). The $-track? slot in your table shows
"disabled" to indicate that the user didn't accurately track electrum. There should also be a "disabled"
warning somewhere in your $won(noEM)-column to show you at which FGs the problem is located ...

And yes, I'll upload the whole file once I am ready, just I feel like having only changed, that I have normalized rates, it's pointless to upload it. So I keep that in mind and keep farming.

Right. I'd say testers should upload their file once they decide that their current testing-cycle for a certain deck
is completed. Otherwise, we will just get confused with various uploads of the same players playing the same deck ...
What do you think, kirch?

[Genuinous]

The little "~" behind your score-stats indicates that there is something wrong with your electrum-input,
hence the total score-stats are set to "just an approximation" (~). The $-track? slot in your table shows
"disabled" to indicate that the user didn't accurately track electrum. There should also be a "disabled"
warning somewhere in your $won(noEM)-column to show you at which FGs the problem is located ...

Probably, because the macros were disabled... I just reopened the file, after I closed it happily (Happy for finally completing all FGs 3 times), but later I realized I should've made it public (but forgot the macros). I pay attention to the warning otherwise

[chrisbenton876]

deck	Lone Stalker
players	chrisbenton876

version	1.27		win-rate	24.32%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	24.66%
games	111		Score/h	17
win-loss-(EM)	27-84-(11)		Score/h (n)	26
time (h:m:s)	06:07:12		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	1730
min/game	03:18		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	1821

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
1095    -1080    -900    -491    909    -115    207    378    -1200    73    152    232    -402    -117       -1080    -600    -900    -900    159    215    386    54    -167    300    1016    -960    -960    -1200    -831	6017    -1080    -900    -491    4682    1235    3445    2070    -1200    2813    2211    3240    760    1470       -1080    -600    -900    -900    2290    2152    2269    2965    962    2333    4964    -960    -960    -1200    -831	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	2    0    0    0    3     1    1    3    0    1    1    1    1    1    0    0    0    0    1    2    3    1    1    1    3    0    0    0    0	1     3     3     3     0      4     2     2     3     2     3     2     7     5     3     3     4     3     2     3     2     2     6     2     0     4     4     3     3		1                        1                  2                  1                  1                                    1      1            1      1      1

"      
      

Here is the original file: http://www.mediafire.com/?aq3zkuv08zdous8
These are the normalized stats. Each FG was played at least 3 times.

[kirchj33]

ps.: It's quite funny that both kirchj and I posted at the same time Looks like 153 games are required in order to fight each false god 3 times.

Mine were probably gonna take a lot more than that, but I still needed 6 more (0 played against Morte at that point) so I loaded it into the trainer and finished up.  I needed a change of deck and was glad to be done for the time being

Nice stats ... I'm only down some 30games with this deck now and got a largely higher win-rate but also
much slower games. (=about the same FGei lol) Curious to see what the next 70games will bring.

I'm sure I don't need to say anything, but be careful about making any "assumptions" off such a low sample size.  Especially when we are looking for a minimum of 10 games vs. each FG (300 in total).

Right. I'd say testers should upload their file once they decide that their current testing-cycle for a certain deck
is completed. Otherwise, we will just get confused with various uploads of the same players playing the same deck ...
What do you think, kirch?

Yeah, I agree 100%.  In fact, I'd prefer if we kept the stat posting to just one single post and modified it per person, per deck tested.  This way any changes as farming goes along is much cleaner.  I realized there may have been some confusion at first with no sample posted (thought it was self explanatory from the directions).  Cleaner posts makes it easier for those not involved with the study to read through and gain knowledge, although I suppose ultimately, they will only need to reference the first few.