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kirchj33

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329655#msg329655
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2011, 08:34:43 pm »
This is my first deck ready for posting with normalized stats.  It should be used as an example if people are unclear:

  deck     CCYB (40 Card)   
  players     kirchj33   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     45.03%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     45.68%   
  games    191 
  Score/h     395   
  win-loss-(EM)     86-105-(40)   
  Score/h (n)    398   
  time (h:m:s)     13:51:43   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  2814   
  min/game     04:21   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  2802   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   166
   734
   470
   1117
   743
   -92
   -59
   98
   -993
   256
   -455
   335
   -66
   578   
   -447
   743
   -127
   514
   528
   940
   1234
   282
   967
   767
   447
   -85
   -147
   -632
   459
   2148
   4402
   3175
   5019
   3873
   1952
   1582
   1420
   -993
   2792
   -455
   2714
   1587
   3384   
   335
   3618
   621
   2837
   3149
   4364
   5408
   2786
   4855
   3651
   2849
   1064
   961
   -632
   4190
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   2
   5
   3
   6
   6 
   1
   2
   2
   
   3
   
   3
   1
   6
   1
   2
   1
   3
   5
   3
   7
   2
   5
   5
   5
   1
   2
   
   4
    3
    3
    3
   
    3 
    3
    6
    6
    7
    6
    3
    3
    3
    3
    10
    1
    5
    2
    2
   
   
    4
    1
    2
    3
    5
    8
    5
    5
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     
     2
     1
     5
     4
     
     
     2
     
     1
     
     
     
     1
     
     2
     
     2
     1
     2
     7
     1
     3
     5
     
     1
     
     
     
"      
      

   
      
Excel link: CCYB - Fat 40 Card variant (https://rapidshare.com/files/1527110364/Statmasta4000_-_CCYB_40_Card.xls)

Edit: I updated the stats for my testing with this deck to a completed and normalized version.  I do not plan on completing further testing for this variant any time in the near future.

Genuinous

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329659#msg329659
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2011, 08:41:35 pm »
That's pretty interesting :) Few changes make quite a difference between Fat and Slim. I can't beat Dream Catcher but 4/5 with 2 EMs against Seism.

Offline Jangoo

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329754#msg329754
« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2011, 12:13:31 am »

Well, a rough estimate for the earned score would be
43*50 (for the normal wins) + 5*120 (for EMs) (= 2750)
- 52*30 (=1560)
=1190
divided by 5.66 h makes 210 points per hour.

The number for score/hour seems wrong... I think the program forgot that you lose 30 for every loss.
Actually, for a rough guess outside genuinous's played reality it should be more like:

48*77 + 5*120 - 52*30 / 5,66h =  ~480  -->  genuinous's score/h is fine

77 is the middle-ground of score gain against FGs (with 50HPs left) and score is always:
 electrum won + 30, so it ranges from 65 to 89 per regular win!

I can assure you that the Statmasta has been crafted to perfection during many many hours ...
just forgetting about something as basic as substracting 30 score for each loss is really not
something I would anticipate.  ;)

The only way the score can be messed up is false user-input, e.g. if you enter way too high electrum
amounts accidentally or if you record your EMs as regular wins with 120electrum won ...
(For the latter, you should get an immediate warning unless you also blew entering the EMs as EMs out of wins.)

----

I uploaded to RapidShare after playing a couple more games (https://rapidshare.com/files/461374351/Statmasta4000.xls)
I hope this is good now :) *keeps farming*

I uploaded it to RapidShare, take a look. For me it looks good, but I might be wrong... Jangoo?
Looks great genuinous: No active warnings, realistic electrum amounts
and realistic stats calculated and displayed from all this.
All good.



Genuinous

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329767#msg329767
« Reply #27 on: May 09, 2011, 12:44:05 am »
First I got confused by the little !!!. But then I realized it's amazingly useful, when you forget or mess up something, it won't screw all your stats. Great addition ;)

tttt

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329928#msg329928
« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2011, 08:17:18 am »
I LOVE the idea of this thread. Literally. I would marry it and make sensual love to it if it were a woman.

However, the only stats I can take are win/loss and card drops. I don't and can't accurately take TTW, EM and Game Lenght. I play at work, and there are games where I leave the computer for an hour and come back later to finish it, hence 6000+ second games. TTW and EM are also dependent on my mood, sometimes I'll stall the game for an EM, other times I'd rush it for a quicker end. Also, I prefer skipping when I see my chance of winning is extremely small.

With that said, I'll soon have a stat/guide for a ccyb mod posted.

10 men

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329932#msg329932
« Reply #29 on: May 09, 2011, 08:36:52 am »
Actually, for a rough guess outside genuinous's played reality it should be more like:

43*77 + 5*120 - 52*30 / 5,66h =  ~415  -->  genuinous's score/h is fine

77 is the middle-ground of score gain against FGs (with 50HPs left) and score is always:
 electrum won + 30, so it ranges from 65 to 89 per regular win!

I should read the wiki more lol.
But I fixed the 43 normal wins back for you, I may not have anticipated the awesomeness of the STATMASTA, but I can subtract 48-5. :P
So yeah, Genuinous' score / hour should be fine, as you usually have above-average HP left.

Also, this looks like a very interesting study, and I'm very much looking forward to the results.

Offline Jangoo

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg329944#msg329944
« Reply #30 on: May 09, 2011, 09:55:42 am »


Ooops ... well ... so much for basic mistakes. But like I said, I can assure you ... erm ... *cough ...  :))

Btw, that information is not in the wiki. A bunch of test-games had to be played
to extract the formula for HPs left and their relation to electrum- and score-gain.




Genuinous

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg330246#msg330246
« Reply #31 on: May 09, 2011, 11:27:27 pm »
  deck     CCYB Slim     
  players     Genuinous   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     45.75%   
  $ track ?    disabled 
  win-rate (n)     49.12%   
  games    153 
  Score/h     389 ~   
  win-loss-(EM)     70-83-(10)   
  Score/h (n)    441 ~   
  time (h:m:s)     08:33:23   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3500   
  min/game     03:21   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  3658   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
Okay, so here I present the normalized rates as well. I'll keep going until 200 games, to have it round.
And yes, I'll upload the whole file once I am ready, just I feel like having only changed, that I have normalized rates, it's pointless to upload it. So I keep that in mind and keep farming.
By the way, I saw tttt's study of the same deck for 1000 games. We have a bit different results, but you will figure it out :)

ps.: It's quite funny that both kirchj and I posted at the same time :D Looks like 153 games are required in order to fight each false god 3 times.

Offline Jangoo

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg330283#msg330283
« Reply #32 on: May 10, 2011, 01:18:07 am »

Nice stats ... I'm only down some 30games with this deck now and got a largely higher win-rate but also
much slower games. (=about the same FGei lol) Curious to see what the next 70games will bring.

The little "~" behind your score-stats indicates that there is something wrong with your electrum-input,
hence the total score-stats are set to "just an approximation" (~). The $-track? slot in your table shows
"disabled" to indicate that the user didn't accurately track electrum. There should also be a "disabled"
warning somewhere in your $won(noEM)-column to show you at which FGs the problem is located ...


And yes, I'll upload the whole file once I am ready, just I feel like having only changed, that I have normalized rates, it's pointless to upload it. So I keep that in mind and keep farming.
Right. I'd say testers should upload their file once they decide that their current testing-cycle for a certain deck
is completed. Otherwise, we will just get confused with various uploads of the same players playing the same deck ...
What do you think, kirch?



Genuinous

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg330286#msg330286
« Reply #33 on: May 10, 2011, 01:21:55 am »
The little "~" behind your score-stats indicates that there is something wrong with your electrum-input,
hence the total score-stats are set to "just an approximation" (~). The $-track? slot in your table shows
"disabled" to indicate that the user didn't accurately track electrum. There should also be a "disabled"
warning somewhere in your $won(noEM)-column to show you at which FGs the problem is located ...

Probably, because the macros were disabled... I just reopened the file, after I closed it happily (Happy for finally completing all FGs 3 times), but later I realized I should've made it public (but forgot the macros). I pay attention to the warning otherwise ;)

Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths(Lone Stalker) https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg330374#msg330374
« Reply #34 on: May 10, 2011, 04:00:45 am »
  deck     Lone Stalker   
  players     chrisbenton876   
  version    1.27 
  win-rate     24.32%   
  $ track ?    enabled 
  win-rate (n)     24.66%   
  games    111 
  Score/h     17   
  win-loss-(EM)     27-84-(11)   
  Score/h (n)    26   
  time (h:m:s)     06:07:12   
  FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  1730   
  min/game     03:18   
  FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html  1821   
      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"
  score/h  FGei(c)   Statmasta™4000    wins losses skips EM/Wins
   1095
   -1080
   -900
   -491
   909
   -115
   207
   378
   -1200
   73
   152
   232
   -402
   -117   
   -1080
   -600
   -900
   -900
   159
   215
   386
   54
   -167
   300
   1016
   -960
   -960
   -1200
   -831
   6017
   -1080
   -900
   -491
   4682
   1235
   3445
   2070
   -1200
   2813
   2211
   3240
   760
   1470   
   -1080
   -600
   -900
   -900
   2290
   2152
   2269
   2965
   962
   2333
   4964
   -960
   -960
   -1200
   -831
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
   2
   0
   0
   0
   3 
   1
   1
   3
   0
   1
   1
   1
   1
   1
   0
   0
   0
   0
   1
   2
   3
   1
   1
   1
   3
   0
   0
   0
   0
    1
    3
    3
    3
    0 
    4
    2
    2
    3
    2
    3
    2
    7
    5
    3
    3
    4
    3
    2
    3
    2
    2
    6
    2
    0
    4
    4
    3
    3
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
     1
     
     
     
     1
     
     
     2
     
     
     1
     
     
     1
     
     
     
     
     
     1
     1
     
     1
     1
     1
     
     
     
     
"      
      

Here is the original file: http://www.mediafire.com/?aq3zkuv08zdous8
These are the normalized stats. Each FG was played at least 3 times.




kirchj33

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Re: FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=25609.msg330396#msg330396
« Reply #35 on: May 10, 2011, 04:57:53 am »
ps.: It's quite funny that both kirchj and I posted at the same time :D Looks like 153 games are required in order to fight each false god 3 times.
Mine were probably gonna take a lot more than that, but I still needed 6 more (0 played against Morte at that point) so I loaded it into the trainer and finished up.  I needed a change of deck and was glad to be done for the time being :)



Nice stats ... I'm only down some 30games with this deck now and got a largely higher win-rate but also
much slower games. (=about the same FGei lol) Curious to see what the next 70games will bring.
I'm sure I don't need to say anything, but be careful about making any "assumptions" off such a low sample size.  Especially when we are looking for a minimum of 10 games vs. each FG (300 in total).



Right. I'd say testers should upload their file once they decide that their current testing-cycle for a certain deck
is completed. Otherwise, we will just get confused with various uploads of the same players playing the same deck ...
What do you think, kirch?
Yeah, I agree 100%.  In fact, I'd prefer if we kept the stat posting to just one single post and modified it per person, per deck tested.  This way any changes as farming goes along is much cleaner.  I realized there may have been some confusion at first with no sample posted (thought it was self explanatory from the directions).  Cleaner posts makes it easier for those not involved with the study to read through and gain knowledge, although I suppose ultimately, they will only need to reference the first few.

 

blarg: