[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[kirchj33]

Oni and I had to tag-team this one since it was a huge pain.

deck	NON-UPGRADED False God Rainbow
players	Onizuka (100), Kirchj33 (50)

version	1.28		win-rate	12.67%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	13.87%
games	150		Score/h	-273
win-loss-(EM)	19-131-(7)		Score/h (n)	-238
time (h:m:s)	07:48:40		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	668
min/game	03:07		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	768

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-686    0    -1306    -669    282    -818    -906    355    -1184    -590    -87    320    -1154    -988       -942    -104    -651    -744    -1068    -825    123    -794    -1095    -273    289    -808    -478    -681    564	-686    1705    -1306    -669    2190    -818    -906    2232    -1184    -590    1464    1958    -1154    -988       -942    1466    -651    -744    -1068    -825    1370    -794    -1095    576    1852    -808    1201    -681    3378	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	1            1             2            1    4                1                    2            1    2        1        3	6     4     6     3     2      6     5     1     5     5     3     3     7     3     3     3     5     5     6     7     4     5     8     7     3     3     6     6     1		1                  1                                          2                                                      1                        2

"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?167nbcce91ik342 (http://www.mediafire.com/?167nbcce91ik342)

[omegareaper7]

Oni and I had to tag-team this one since it was a huge pain.

deck	NON-UPGRADED False God Rainbow
players	Onizuka (100), Kirchj33 (50)

version	1.28		win-rate	12.67%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	13.87%
games	150		Score/h	-273
win-loss-(EM)	19-131-(7)		Score/h (n)	-238
time (h:m:s)	07:48:40		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	668
min/game	03:07		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	768

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-686    0    -1306    -669    282    -818    -906    355    -1184    -590    -87    320    -1154    -988       -942    -104    -651    -744    -1068    -825    123    -794    -1095    -273    289    -808    -478    -681    564	-686    1705    -1306    -669    2190    -818    -906    2232    -1184    -590    1464    1958    -1154    -988       -942    1466    -651    -744    -1068    -825    1370    -794    -1095    576    1852    -808    1201    -681    3378	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	1            1             2            1    4                1                    2            1    2        1        3	6     4     6     3     2      6     5     1     5     5     3     3     7     3     3     3     5     5     6     7     4     5     8     7     3     3     6     6     1		1                  1                                          2                                                      1                        2

"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?167nbcce91ik342 (http://www.mediafire.com/?167nbcce91ik342)

I knew it wasn't very good anymore, but theres a lot of losses even against the easier gods.  A lot of bad luck perhaps?

[kirchj33]

I knew it wasn't very good anymore, but theres a lot of losses even against the easier gods.  A lot of bad luck perhaps?

I doubt it.  The deck has an elaborate setup that needs to take place before it gets going, with minimal defense to help get to that point.  Even against easier false gods a moderate/slow rush against a average/slow quanta draw is enough to break this deck.

[Artois]

I notice that some of the 'results' are based on stats taken over 100 approx game samples.

In my experience, there can and will be huge variance swings with an FG killer over a 100 game span, and feel that 300 is the minimum number of games to start to get a realistic feeling for the deck... otherwise you could be just running'hot' or unluckily 'cold' skewing the stats unwittingly.

I know this as I tested FG killer decks over year ago, and was surprised at the 10%+ swings per 100 games that I was not expecting.

In the long term, I wonder if an efficiency study could be based on 10 games per FG, thus all decks are tested equally - not dependant on the run of Gods drawn.

My apologies if I am repeating a previous comment (I couldn't face up to trawling through ALL 16 pages!)

[Onizuka]

[This is just my personal opinion]

All decently electrum gaining decks should be completed to 300 games at a minimum, yes. But when a deck is clearly past its time and is no longer an efficient farmer (SGbow, cover & cry, Essence's Duo FG killer, etc), 300 games isn't needed since it is extremely impractal to farm with them in the first place. As long as data is normalized (3 games/FG), I believe that a bad deck should just be put to rest and deemed bad for farming. If a deck consistently performs badly through normalization, there is no point for further testing.

[gumbeh]

Agreed. If an FGEi is thousands of points below the top, then it's a "fun" deck someone can choose for style, but not a meaningfully interesting, serious contender for FG Efficiency.

[provac]

Is there a 500hp stall designed for FG play?

[Onizuka]

There's no 500hp stall that can consistently win against many FGs to my knowledge. You can check specific deck counters in the FG Strategy section, which some of them may have one.

[Jenkar]

deck	Mono Aether
players	Jenkar

version	1.28		win-rate	44%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	45,54%
games	250		Score/h	587
win-loss-(EM)	110-140-(48)		Score/h (n)	625
time (h:m:s)	11:16:44		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	4382
min/game	02:42		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	4517

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
986    -420    1900    -731    1728    -342    336    371    -18    -1059    1340    338    -1195    -915       149    1892    -53    1596    624    1281    1872    -18    395    1062    1819    -740    581    -163    1672	6379    311    9482    -731    8544    899    3575    3278    2695    -1059    6780    2623    -1195    -915       3591    8293    1941    7293    3437    7527    9349    3488    4638    5876    9372    -740    4992    1370    8851	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	4    1    6        10     2    2    3    2        6    2            3    3    3    11    4    7    7    2    2    6    10        6    1    7	4     10     1     10     1      12     4     4     6     10     4     4     8     9     6         10         4     1     1     7     3     2         8     6     4     1		2            3            5            1                        6      2                        3      1      9      4            4      1            2      3                        2

*noms* Pretttttttty.
With skips : around 5500
http://www.mediafire.com/?ndvv9cfq2fhfcek

[gumbeh]

Played some more VVV. Had a tremendously bad streak wherein the FGs kept drawing really well, really early, while I had an extremely hard time drawing shields.

On the plus side, a couple more FGs are normalized. VVV needs a few more encounters still, but I need a break.

[Jenkar]

Testin' VVV (fully upped)
CCC, coud you put your data again? I can't seem to download it, and i would like to see what in the effin' name of god gives me such a bigger FGei(cn) than you. Maybe i was just real lucky with some near-skips god, but i wanna see.

[kirchj33]

Testin' VVV (fully upped)
CCC, coud you put your data again? I can't seem to download it, and i would like to see what in the effin' name of god gives me such a bigger FGei(cn) than you. Maybe i was just real lucky with some near-skips god, but i wanna see.

Most likely a result of your average game-time being so much faster.  Oni & I are working on providing more data so that we can do a full comparison.