[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[Onizuka]

Most people can be antagon FG farmers. FGs have fairly easy strategies (most of them).

deck	Flay 'EM
players	Onizuka

version	1.27		win-rate	33%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	32.65%
games	300		Score/h	160
win-loss-(EM)	99-201-(6)		Score/h (n)	153
time (h:m:s)	16:00:50		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	2495
min/game	03:12		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	2481

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-1253    -310    -1121    -379    708    -793    -412    945    -558    844    724    450    -502    -181       -963    561    -502    670    392    -454    1031    -700    -1266    377    827    -846    -163    -886    824	-1253    1931    -1121    -379    4210    -793    946    5108    375    4861    4363    3812    602    1978       -963    3278    -502    3863    2837    810    5529    88    -1266    2968    5042    -846    1517    -886    5492	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	1            6         2    10    1    3    8    8    1    2        6        7    8    1    11    1        5    11        2        5	6     4     11     7     2      11     13     1     10     1     4     9     8     8     8     5     14     1     7     7         14     7     5     3     11     8     12     4		1                              4                                                                              1

"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?en84n1ahxb0gq9a


Few notes:
Graviton win was epic.
I could totally dig a purify here. Would EM ALOT more.
Only times I quit were A) PA'd Pulvy
B) Quinted BE'd creature.

[gumbeh]

The above is yet not to be understood as a call for mediocrity ...
You should still try your very best at any given time.

Yeah, I understand. Mistakes are allowed, but we are to do the best we can.

I put on a pretty srsbzness face and insta-hit the spacebar like a boss if I don't draw the 2 or 3 cards I actually care about for this deck, once its defenses are in place.

I've had to throw out a few games due to major distractions, such as the doorbell, which would otherwise skew my results.

[kirchj33]

deck	CCYB - Slim
players	kirchj33

version	1.27		win-rate	45.5%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	48.62%
games	200		Score/h	412
win-loss-(EM)	91-109-(22)		Score/h (n)	451
time (h:m:s)	13:00:29		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3093
min/game	03:54		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3191

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      

"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-113    187    -651    819    1229    -282    137    728    -334    583    176    865    98    720       -305    567    120    378    840    830    872    522    811    530    640    -610    167    315    658	1855    3242    -651    4079    5682    1044    2049    3252    1017    4385    1738    5132    2224    4822       1333    3465    2001    2353    5053    4252    4244    4116    4144    3473    4230    -610    2671    2347    4522	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	2    2        6    6     1    1    6    1    4    2    6    4    7    2    2    3    4    3    5    2    3    4    4    2        2    3    4	7     4     6     2           5     2     4     6     5     4     1     8     5     10     1     6     2     1         1     3     2     3     1     9     3     3     5		4      4                  1            2      1                  1                        1            1      2            3      1                              1

"      
      
http://www.mediafire.com/?0ehlxnyt3hcwh1u (http://www.mediafire.com/?0ehlxnyt3hcwh1u)

[Found2]

deck	I've  GotP time
players	Found2

version	1.27		win-rate	65,67%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	65,27%
games	300		Score/h	611
win-loss-(EM)	197-103-(145)		Score/h (n)	614
time (h:m:s)	30:34:02		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3176
min/game	06:07		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3202

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%      
      
"

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
843    481    670    -370    995    767    -137    980    252    819    1040    938    345    615       318    962    116    826    843    642    952    85    949    616    938    -76    177    212    840	4289    2850    3481    -370    4398    4037    669    4294    2451    3737    4557    4267    2202    3443       2491    4293    1296    3620    4060    3501    4171    1638    4619    3294    4112    668    1962    1522    4501	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	12    4    6    0    17     5    1    8    3    10    10    8    6    6    5    12    3    12    7    9    7    2    4    8    12    3    4    6    7	3     5     3     10     0      3     5     0     6     2     0     0     6     3     9     0     6     0     2     1     0     5     2     2     0     15     5     7     3	0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0	6      4      4      0      16      4      0      8      2      10      10      6      3      2      4      11      1      12      6      0      7      1      4      4      12      2      0      3      3

"      
https://rapidshare.com/files/4273014463/Stats_Found2_IvegotPtime.xls      

So, now I've the 300 games together. The values didn't change a lot so they were consistant before. Thanks to 10men's remark I was also able to win vs. Jezebel. Jeah! 
Is there a statistic if some gods are more common than others? Because I played 17 times vs destiny and 18 times vs rainbow but only 6 times vs Octane and only 7 times vs Neptune and Obliterator... Is it just "luck" (in case of Rainbow it isn't in case of Destiny it is )?


@Jangoo: It is absolutely clear to me that skips should be avoided. An experienced player is able to know when he's going to loose, but it's not the player - it's the deck which is under observation.
So, I'm now "free" for new challanges. If there is a deck I should start to test without any exercise (in the new deck of couse) just tell me which one...

[JoshK]

I'm willing to test a deck if anybody needs more data on something.  Let me know.

[kirchj33]

@JoshK - Follow the protocol outline in the instructions if you would like to test.

@Found2 - We only need a few more decks tested before we have data on all.  I believe YCH will come through with CCYB unupped as soon as he gets his computer, a couple people are on Almost Completely Unupped blah blah, one of them being Onizuka so we're fine there.  I am 2/3rds done with Cover and Cry, but nobody in their right mind is gonna want to do that deck anyways.  I am not sure if our Eternal Chaos tester will come through.  It would be nice if you could do that, or any of the top 5 or 6 upped decks so we can get them to 500 games.  I'd like to get at least those decks to 500 so we can start removing skip data.  Just let me know.  Also, you need to post the excel file.  Thanks.

[Veen]

Hey Kirchj33,

Any chance VVV can get tested? I would be honored.

[kirchj33]

VVV is currently being tested by Gumbeh.

[Found2]

@JoshK - Follow the protocol outline in the instructions if you would like to test.

@Found2 - We only need a few more decks tested before we have data on all.  I believe YCH will come through with CCYB unupped as soon as he gets his computer, a couple people are on Almost Completely Unupped blah blah, one of them being Onizuka so we're fine there.  I am 2/3rds done with Cover and Cry, but nobody in their right mind is gonna want to do that deck anyways.  I am not sure if our Eternal Chaos tester will come through.  It would be nice if you could do that, or any of the top 5 or 6 upped decks so we can get them to 500 games.  I'd like to get at least those decks to 500 so we can start removing skip data.  Just let me know.  Also, you need to post the excel file.  Thanks.

OK, then I start to do Eternal Chaos. I once tried this deck and I didn't like it very much but doesn't matter. The Excelfile I already posted but moved it to a spoiler...
Here it is once again: https://rapidshare.com/files/4273014463/Stats_Found2_IvegotPtime.xls

[gumbeh]

deck	Veen's Vicious Viotech
players	Gumbeh

version	1.283		win-rate	47%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	n.a.
games	100		Score/h	505
win-loss-(EM)	47-53-(29)		Score/h (n)	n.a.
time (h:m:s)	06:41:38		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	3275
min/game	04:01		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	n.a.

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%
      

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
-1077    793    200    954    740    -7200    -571    1394    262    418    567    805    -1271    -549       -768    1363    451    -13    1034    957    1358    217    330    437    1305    -713    635    916    338	-1077    4002    2912    4609    4077    -7200    -571    6108    2586    3168    3165    4436    -1271    -549       -768    5974    2918    949    5340    4845    5955    2178    3216    2860    5721    -713    3712    4460    3293	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	3    1    3    1             2    2    2    1    2                2    2    1    5    3    2    2    2    3    1        4    2    1	4         3         1      1     1         4     3         2     1     3     3         2     3     1     2         5     3     2         4     3     1     1		1      1      2      1                  2      1      1            2                        2      1            2      3      2      2            1      1            2      2

I see now why other people are rich and I am not. I have NEVER played this many times, or this consistently, with anything. Usually I do 2 to 5 games with any given deck, then I either try a new deck, read the forums, hit PVP2, or simply play another game. For the purposes of testing I managed to do as many as 15 games in one sitting... I did not like it, but my electrum balance looks very nice now.

More VVV testing is needed to get everything normalized... I ran into Morte and Miracle repeatedly, but didn't manage to encounter Paradox until my ninety-fifth game. I was thinking I might have to submit without him, but fortunately he did stop by for a single game. Results were consistent with my predictions as well as the deck author's description of VVV vs Paradox, nevertheless 2 additional easy EMs are necessary for rigor and for a "normalized" data point.

[kirchj33]

Good work Gumbeh.  Will you finish to normalization or will you take a break?  (ie. should I find someone to finish testing to normalization?)  Stats for VVV look very nice, somewhat unexpected.

[gumbeh]

I think the EMs are really what drive up this particular FGei. They can happen against almost any god - it was a really nice surprise to periodically EM an FG out of the blue against whom I'd previously lost several matches.

I'll keep playing 5 matches here and there just for financial reasons (and record data meanwhile), but I'm taking a break from hardcore testing for now. 'Sides, it's probably good to have multiple testers' stats diluting the effect of individual performance. Found was looking for work, right? Maybe 50 games will hammer it in if he can track down the elusive Paradox.

Only one match vs DG so far... TBH I think we could just artificially set the losses at 3 and put 10 or 20 seconds per loss in there. Just to normalize that particular FG. It's not like anything different can happen with DG. I didn't do it myself just because I wanted to submit the idea to you guys along with my 100 real matches.