[OUTDATED] FG Efficiency Study - Applying statistics to all of the myths

[Jenkar]

I've got several hundred more untimed matches (with skips)

What do you mean by that?
Also, it seems ungodly high.

[ggabriel2]

I've got several hundred more untimed matches (with skips)

What do you mean by that?
Also, it seems ungodly high.

To be honest, 4500 e/hr seems like an irritatingly low grinding speed to me. The deck was made with aggressive skipping in mind; there's 8 gods in the statmasta study that have a 0% winrate (and would certainly stay in single digit %s even if you played them enough to scratch out a win), and Fire Queen's % is only in the double digits because of a fluke. As requested for the study I played everything out and only bailed once a match had become technically impossible on the field (note again that Divine Glory is still an instaquit, because there is literally no way for this deck to ever win against him), but this means a lot of wasted time and you're earning money considerably faster if you're not bothering to fight the likes of Osiris and Ferox. I was not really expecting to break 4000 FGei with all gods included; I thought I'd be making a case entirely on the skip-friendly nature of the deck.

You've done stats on unupped liquid antimatter, so you know how fast it chews through games; most of your losses are due to being out-rushed, because once you get things under control there are very few gods that can do anything about it. Take those strengths and at a 40% winrate--which is not, in itself, particularly impressive--and it's easy to see where the money comes from. In addition to the tremendous quanta advantage the upped deck has and the great synergy between chaos power and liquid shadow, having the shields is huge and well worth going up to 32 cards; I tried a 30 card version with no shields for a brief stint, and the results were just too depressing to continue when I was already used to what this variant could do.

As for the reference to other matches, I mean I've been compiling simpler statistics on the deck over the past several weeks (http://www.mediafire.com/?9coirfctp8l76e5). Between the two studies I've been getting fairly consistent results over nearly a thousand matches. My skipping habits do mean that some gods are under-represented; Lionheart in particular bears further study.

[Jenkar]

With : Decay, DG, DC, Elidnis, Ferox, Firequeen, Jezebel, Osiris and Scorpio as skips, your data indicates a FGei(cn) of just over 6000.
It's crazy. I'm in a craze, gonna test it too. This is just insane.

[ggabriel2]

6000 e/hr is consistent with what I've been getting in practice with skips included--actually on the low side if anything, as I kind of suspect the 35% figure for card drops is not entirely accurate (a lot of the bread and butter targets for this deck have relatively high drop chances, so that might account for the difference.) I did not realize this was considered unusual--and, to be fair, I suspect the results would not be so vastly different if you compared them to other farmers using similarly aggressive skip strategy. I think I'm going to make a discussion thread for the deck in a while, there will inevitably be some questions about strategies.

[Jenkar]

"[17:21:14] Higurashi: Dear god, put your tongues back in."
Mod's response to our reaction to the stats, in chat.
Make da thread, or post on Theonlyrealbeef's - the unupped version is his :3

[Essence]

Wait -- upped Liquid Antimatter has better FGei then RoL/Hope?!?!?!


That's gotta be...something.

[Higurashi]

Makes sense. The only reason skipping decks aren't popular is because they're just that boring, plain and simple. They will always be at the top when it comes to electrum gain though. Unfortunately, I also find this deck boring in itself. x)

[ggabriel2]

Makes sense. The only reason skipping decks aren't popular is because they're just that boring, plain and simple. They will always be at the top when it comes to electrum gain though. Unfortunately, I also find this deck boring in itself. x)

Different strokes; I originally got onto this deck for the fun of it. I admit that you spend a lot of time shooting fish in a barrel, but I get aggravated when every second match is a long, close fight. I find that there are enough challenge fights to hold my interest without enough to get frustrating, but everyone's taste is going to differ, obviously.

[kirchj33]

Before everyone gets their panties in a wad, I would caution that this data for LA is based off of two people who are skipping games without playing them out.  Even though, this makes sense mathematically vs. god that have 0% chance of winning, no other deck has this kind of data at this point.  We will need more testers submitting data for the top decks, this way we can mathematically tease out the skips according to god-specific FGei.  That being said, the LA data is so strong that I doubt it will be caught by any other deck even with this systematic data addition/manipulation.

[Jenkar]

As i said in chat, upped LA = only DG as autoskip. gabriel and i agreed on this.
I can give the unupped autoskips i used, if it is wished.

[kirchj33]

As i said in chat, upped LA = only DG as autoskip. gabriel and i agreed on this.
I can give the unupped autoskips i used, if it is wished.

No, I don't wish.  The standard protocol, as mentioned, will be to tease out skipped data once enough raw data is collected, based off some determined FGei.

[omegareaper7]

Urf. That was a hell of a lot of grinding.

The upshot, of course, is that I am now substantially richer. Slogging through some of the matches I'd normally skip was a bit soul-crushing, though.

Reposted deck:

Code: [Select]

6rs 6rs 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6ts 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u7 6u7 6u7 6u7 6u7 6u7 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 7te 7te 7te 7te 7te 7teI've never bothered posting a thread for it because it seems like a fairly straightforward variant of a common enough deck archetype, although I talk a little about it in this older liquid antimatter thread. (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,11074.msg387272.html#msg387272) Now that I have timed statistics the deck's merits are becoming a bit clearer though, so maybe I should start a new thread for it--some of the tactics needed to get these results are not entirely intuitive and probably bear discussion.

deck	Upped liquid antimatter
players	ggabriel2

version	1.283		win-rate	40%
$ track ?	enabled		win-rate (n)	41.39%
games	300		Score/h	589
win-loss-(EM)	120-180-(68)		Score/h (n)	630
time (h:m:s)	11:50:34		FGei[c]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	4571
min/game	02:22		FGei[cn]* (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,14626.0.html)	4715

      Statmasta™4000                                                                *assumed card-spin/win: 35%

score/h	FGei(c)	Statmasta™4000	wins	losses	skips	EM/Wins
1625    -184    794    -989    1161    -36000    -952    -689    155    -890    -312    1783    542    944       382    1449    -903    267    1759    1329    2277    2129    1048    -1038    1474    471    -1150    1273    625	9880    1683    5014    -989    6245    -36000    -952    -689    3365    -890    964    8500    4309    6737       3942    7459    -903    3010    8858    7445    9979    10237    6421    -1038    6931    3882    -1150    7068    5236	Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	9    2    6        10                 5        1    5    5    4    4    5        5    5    6    12    6    3        10    4        9    4	4     9     7     12     5      12     12     10     14     14     6     1     7     5     9     2     9     8     1     3         1     2     4         5     8     4     6		2      1      4            6                        3                  4      2      2      3      3            1      3      3      12      4      1            7      1            4      2

If these numbers seem unusual, I should reiterate that I've got several hundred more untimed matches (with skips) and the overall winrate I'm getting here matches up closely with extensive prior experience--some individual gods are higher/lower than expected, but the random variance on either side seems to pretty much balance each other out. The one win against Fire Queen is a straight up fluke; I've been habitually skipping that fight so long I'd forgotten that her deck is just kind of bad. I was a bit surprised I got so many wins against Lionheart, too--I suspect that's partly luck and partly improved tactics. Most everyone else is about as expected or on the low side.

Statmasta spreadsheet download: http://www.mediafire.com/?6m91vajfb916dy0

quick question for you.
How much do the tower shields help? I don't see them helping all that much.