Drop rates and deck selection

[Chemist]

Three things, if I may:

-Do we know whether the slots currently work with four cards or five? They used to select five, then only work with four. I still don't know whether that bug has ever been fixed or not.

-Do we know whether the slots draw cards from one half or the whole of an FG's deck? (I'd assume the former, but I can't really know...)

-The SoD need to be taken into account. 10% chance to replace first card on shortlist of five cards with a shard. Though depending on how the bug with only four cards being used works (if it's still present) this might not actually be 10%...

[smuglapse]

Maybe this old post will help you some. It doesn't include the recent changes, though (Osiris with Trebuchet).

Re: Cards you'll most likely win from the spin vs FGs (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,13051.msg177295#msg177295)

[QuantumT]

From what I recall, towers weren't actually a common thing to win with the exception of quantum towers. This isn't because rainbow has more towers than any other god (Fire queen has more and Hermes has almost the same ratio of fire towers), but because of a weird issue where it didn't try and repick quantum towers.

[Falcon4415]

Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately?

[QuantumT]

Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately?

I had realized that, but it won't make a huge difference really. It only slightly lowers the chances of having multiples in the spins.

[Falcon4415]

Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately?

I had realized that, but it won't make a huge difference really. It only slightly lowers the chances of having multiples in the spins.

My point was that, as we know that the algorithm has been modified since it was ripped open and shared with the community, we can't really be sure of whether there have been more modifications other than that obvious one, especially after what jmizzle7 told us.

[Izzythemachine]

Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately?

I had realized that, but it won't make a huge difference really. It only slightly lowers the chances of having multiples in the spins.

My point was that, as we know that the algorithm has been modified since it was ripped open and shared with the community, we can't really be sure of whether there have been more modifications other than that obvious one, especially after what jmizzle7 told us.

I'm currently working on finding the algorithm from the .swf, but it's pretty complicated. Does anyone have the exact formula? I can do the probabilities, but I would like to know for sure the precise formula before I get started.

[Dark Weaver]

hi,
i've done the maths with the latest algorithm, however i wont post the algorithm (unless i'm explicitly authorised to do so).
what you should know:

The slot machine works with 3 reels, each reel is composed of 4 cards (not necessarily different), reels are the same.Each try uses a different set of 4 cards.You wont get upgraded cards unless you play against the FG or the Half Blood.There are cards you cannot win, you'll get a relic instead.Quantum tower is fixed (its considered a tower/pillar).I've seen nowhere a 10% thing related to shards.(would have done the calculus more interesting )

First table shows the probability to win at least 1 card from the specific FG, either with 1 try|spin (2nd column) or with 3 tries|spins (3rd column).
The other tables shows the probability to win  at least 1 of a specific card from a FG deck with 1 try and 3 tries ; the first data is the probability the card will be choosen for the reel.
Results should be accurate, i did some simulations giving nearly the same results.

DeckName	P(win a card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win a card) in 3 spin[%]
Akebono	20.74803705	50.22284357
Chaos Lord	13.09570438	34.36677695
Dark Matter	14.01112251	36.41907543
Decay	20.50930697	49.77165716
Destiny	15.36237200	39.36959757
Divine Glory	23.86804928	55.87335859
Dream Catcher	12.52822796	33.07262768
Elidnis	12.50919862	33.02893835
Eternal Phoenix	19.08659375	47.02616033
Ferox	14.94284722	38.46353803
Fire Queen	18.70440033	46.27194528
Gemini	17.15135095	43.13352697
Graviton	15.96884434	40.66362524
Hecate	18.36366670	45.59353983
Hermes	13.20473561	34.61349998
Incarnate	16.31010860	41.38361745
Jezebel	21.64532920	51.89450688
Lionheart	16.76073452	42.32538319
Miracle	13.01227019	34.17755799
Morte	12.65611787	33.36575632
Neptune	15.82399914	40.35626022
Obliterator	16.51389134	41.81076384
Octane	20.31745923	49.40710619
Osiris	20.34457941	49.45874692
Paradox	16.07498941	40.88819591
Rainbow	12.19296497	32.30011393
Scorpio	12.35654744	32.67777942
Seism	14.14043376	36.70548589
Serket	16.40486491	41.58249401

Akebono         

Akebono	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Tower Shield	5.87364320	0.56876238	1.69660082
Gravity Tower	0.14806567	0.00937755	0.02813000
Elite Armagio	11.74728639	1.57123995	4.64004391
Massive Dragon	35.24185917	10.83017686	29.09877876
Unstoppable	5.87364320	0.56876238	1.69660082
Titan	5.87364320	0.56876238	1.69660082
Chimera	11.74728639	1.57123995	4.64004391
Overdrive	23.49457278	5.05971560	14.42407838

Chaos Lord     

Chaos Lord	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower	0.00775813	0.00048522	0.00145566
Amethyst Tower	0.00775813	0.00048522	0.00145566
Maxwell's Demon	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713
Amethyst Dragon	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713
Dissipation Field	6.05966568	0.59362062	1.77031122
Werewolf	6.05966568	0.59362062	1.77031122
Chaos Power	9.08949852	1.06098663	3.14930855
Supernova	18.17899704	3.22040398	9.35342177
Improved Mutation	9.08949852	1.06098663	3.14930855
Discord	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713
Fallen Druid	12.11933136	1.65040050	4.86993638
Unstoppable	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713
Explosion	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713
Congeal	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713
Ray of Light	18.17899704	3.22040398	9.35342177
Improved Steal	3.02983284	0.24204442	0.72437713

Dark Matter     

Dark Matter	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Relic	7.14079759	0.74677853	2.22364690
Gravity Tower	0.02883379	0.00180679	0.00542027
Elite Charger	14.28159517	2.14913188	6.30982524
Elite Armagio	3.57039879	0.29656280	0.88705252
Massive Dragon	3.57039879	0.29656280	0.88705252
Unstoppable	3.57039879	0.29656280	0.88705252
Elite Otyugh	7.14079759	0.74677853	2.22364690
Titan	3.57039879	0.29656280	0.88705252
Gravity Force	14.28159517	2.14913188	6.30982524
Black Hole	21.42239276	4.28898622	12.32298634
Gravity Nymph	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000
Archangel	14.28159517	2.14913188	6.30982524
Improved Blessing	3.57039879	0.29656280	0.88705252
Morning Glory	3.57039879	0.29656280	0.88705252

Decay           

Decay	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Pest	26.08690304	6.12412415	17.27019402
Improved Dusk	4.34781717	0.38115293	1.13910600
Improved Steal	8.69563435	0.99346292	2.95087776
Eclipse	4.34781717	0.38115293	1.13910600
Siphon Life	26.08690304	6.12412415	17.27019402
Aether Tower	0.00020502	0.00001281	0.00003844
Electrocutor	4.34781717	0.38115293	1.13910600
Fractal	26.08690304	6.12412415	17.27019402

Destiny         

Destiny	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Amethyst Tower	0.02517490	0.00157700	0.00473091
Maxwell's Demon	6.89374709	0.71046591	2.11629073
Chaos Power	17.23436773	2.93986770	8.56285931
Supernova	17.23436773	2.93986770	8.56285931
Fallen Druid	6.89374709	0.71046591	2.11629073
Time Tower	0.01549224	0.00096962	0.00290882
Fate Egg	20.68124128	4.03017929	11.60981347
Rewind	13.78749419	2.02928775	5.96515865
Electrum Hourglass	10.34062064	1.28922523	3.81802691
Eternity	6.89374709	0.71046591	2.11629073

Divine Glory   

Divine Glory	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Burning Tower	0.01268699	0.00079384	0.00238151
Explosion	29.97970082	7.93982874	21.97831319
Light Tower	0.05497696	0.00345307	0.01035884
Morning Glory	29.97970082	7.93982874	21.97831319
Improved Miracle	14.98985041	2.32708425	6.82005330
Animate Weapon	24.98308401	5.65706064	16.02921578

Dream Catcher   

Dream Catcher	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Relic	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Amethyst Tower	0.00000610	0.00000038	0.00000114
Micro Abomination	18.74999886	3.39660609	9.84762892
Supernova	18.74999886	3.39660609	9.84762892
Discord	6.24999962	0.61950678	1.84703047
Butterfly Effect	9.37499943	1.11122121	3.29675647
Purple Nymph	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000
Black Hole	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Protect Artifact	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Quicksand	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Rage Elixir	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Physalia	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Congeal	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Shockwave	6.24999962	0.61950678	1.84703047
Elite Deja Vu	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Fate Egg	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Pest	6.24999962	0.61950678	1.84703047
Thunderbolt	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130
Quintessence	3.12499981	0.25138853	0.75227130

Elidnis         

Elidnis	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Forest Spectre	15.38427854	2.42936093	7.11246270
Improved Heal	5.12809285	0.47348539	1.41374113
Jade shield	2.56404642	0.19786566	0.59242324
Jade Staff	2.56404642	0.19786566	0.59242324
Ferald Bond	12.82023211	1.80479694	5.31725994
Water Tower	0.00128795	0.00008051	0.00024152
Abyss Crawler	7.69213927	0.83065197	2.47131376
Congeal	12.82023211	1.80479694	5.31725994
Puffer Fish	7.69213927	0.83065197	2.47131376
Ulitharid	7.69213927	0.83065197	2.47131376
Aether Tower	0.00090157	0.00005635	0.00016906
Twin Universe	12.82023211	1.80479694	5.31725994
Elite Phase Dragon	7.69213927	0.83065197	2.47131376
Quintessence	5.12809285	0.47348539	1.41374113

Eternal Phoenix

Eternal Phoenix	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Burning Tower	0.01197962	0.00074953	0.00224858
Ruby Dragon	10.52505478	1.32465774	3.92156411
Fire Lance	10.52505478	1.32465774	3.92156411
Explosion	21.05010955	4.15788885	11.96221354
Fire Storm	5.26252739	0.49015311	1.46326361
Minor Phoenix	31.57516433	8.76202796	24.05015870
Thunderbolt	5.26252739	0.49015311	1.46326361
Fractal	15.78758217	2.53630571	7.41756329

Ferox           

Ferox	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Emerald Tower	0.00508053	0.00031768	0.00095303
Jade Dragon	11.76410817	1.57477755	4.65032545
Giant Frog	11.76410817	1.57477755	4.65032545
Leaf Dragon	17.64616226	3.06049174	8.90334357
Elite Cockatrice	11.76410817	1.57477755	4.65032545
Jade shield	2.94102704	0.23342237	0.69863381
Jade Staff	2.94102704	0.23342237	0.69863381
Ferald Bond	17.64616226	3.06049174	8.90334357
Epinephrine	5.88205409	0.56987693	1.69990650
Ray of Light	17.64616226	3.06049174	8.90334357

Fire Queen     

Fire Queen	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Emerald Tower	0.23136628	0.01476196	0.04427936
Ferald Bond	25.98510506	6.08018143	17.15396370
Fire Lance	12.99255253	1.84381664	5.43008696
Fahrenheit	8.66170169	0.98774159	2.93405213
Wind Tower	0.15906431	0.01008399	0.03024892
Animate Weapon	12.99255253	1.84381664	5.43008696
Elite Queen	25.98510506	6.08018143	17.15396370
Eagle's Eye	12.99255253	1.84381664	5.43008696

Gemini         

Gemini	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Gravity Tower	0.01346689	0.00084270	0.00252808
Massive Dragon	11.53354094	1.52663154	4.51033231
Unstoppable	15.37805459	2.42772930	7.10780268
Aether Tower	0.02917827	0.00182843	0.00548519
Twin Universe	23.06708189	4.89496673	13.97780790
Elite Immortal	3.84451365	0.32555207	0.97348014
Phase Shield	15.37805459	2.42772930	7.10780268
Electrocutor	3.84451365	0.32555207	0.97348014
Elite Phase Dragon	3.84451365	0.32555207	0.97348014
Phase Recluse	23.06708189	4.89496673	13.97780790

Graviton       

Graviton	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Gravity Tower	0.02621440	0.00164227	0.00492672
Elite Charger	9.52131291	1.13738712	3.37349902
Elite Armagio	4.76065646	0.42907124	1.28169855
Gravity Shield	4.76065646	0.42907124	1.28169855
Unstoppable	14.28196937	2.14922398	6.31008978
Elite Otyugh	14.28196937	2.14922398	6.31008978
Titan	4.76065646	0.42907124	1.28169855
Gravity Force	4.76065646	0.42907124	1.28169855
Graviton Firemaster	28.56393874	7.24862368	20.20768081
Explosion	9.52131291	1.13738712	3.37349902
Fire Storm	4.76065646	0.42907124	1.28169855

Hecate         

Hecate	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Rage Elixir	26.08639444	6.12390417	17.26961242
Obsidian Tower	0.00215464	0.00013469	0.00040407
Improved Dusk	4.34773241	0.38114330	1.13907734
Improved Steal	8.69546481	0.99343430	2.95079359
Eclipse	8.69546481	0.99343430	2.95079359
Vampire Dagger	4.34773241	0.38114330	1.13907734
Liquid Shadow	17.39092963	2.98542516	8.69155341
Voodoo Doll	26.08639444	6.12390417	17.26961242
Nightmare	4.34773241	0.38114330	1.13907734

Hermes         

Hermes	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Heavy Armor	7.89419265	0.86237557	2.56488009
Protect Artifact	5.26279510	0.49018653	1.46336287
Burning Tower	0.00689315	0.00043109	0.00129326
Brimstone Eater	10.52559019	1.32476127	3.92186654
Ruby Dragon	2.63139755	0.20409454	0.61103483
Fire Spectre	10.52559019	1.32476127	3.92186654
Fire Lance	15.78838529	2.53652107	7.41817702
Fire Buckler	2.63139755	0.20409454	0.61103483
Explosion	15.78838529	2.53652107	7.41817702
Fahrenheit	2.63139755	0.20409454	0.61103483
Fire Storm	5.26279510	0.49018653	1.46336287
Lava Destroyer	15.78838529	2.53652107	7.41817702
Rage Elixir	5.26279510	0.49018653	1.46336287

Incarnate       

Incarnate	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Retrovirus	14.28462157	2.14987678	6.31196491
Graveyard	17.85577696	3.12288298	9.07912254
Bone Wall	14.28462157	2.14987678	6.31196491
Obsidian Tower	0.00764901	0.00047839	0.00143517
Bloodsucker	14.28462157	2.14987678	6.31196491
Eclipse	14.28462157	2.14987678	6.31196491
Vampire Dagger	3.57115539	0.29664157	0.88728742
Vampire	21.42693235	4.29059853	12.32741719

Jezebel         

Jezebel	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower	0.11488971	0.00725491	0.02176316
Water Tower	0.08042279	0.00506283	0.01518771
Permafrost Shield	5.87086397	0.56839429	1.69550908
Nymph's Tears	35.22518382	10.82019609	29.07496818
Improved Steal	23.48345588	5.05539311	14.41238942
Vampire Dagger	5.87086397	0.56839429	1.69550908
Siphon Life	11.74172794	1.57007188	4.63664891
Cloak	17.61259191	3.05056180	8.87534642

Lionheart (Eternal Crusader)

Lionheart	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower	0.01943615	0.00121688	0.00365061
Light Tower	0.03239358	0.00203050	0.00609138
Crusader	23.78021534	5.17148130	14.72594805
Animate Weapon	4.75604307	0.42852419	1.28007145
Time Tower	0.05182972	0.00325447	0.00976310
Turtle Shield	9.51208613	1.13572859	3.36863589
Electrum Hourglass	23.78021534	5.17148130	14.72594805
Elite Anubis	14.26812920	2.14581903	6.30030895
Eternity	9.51208613	1.13572859	3.36863589
Pharaoh	4.75604307	0.42852419	1.28007145
Quintessence	9.51208613	1.13572859	3.36863589
Aether Pendulum	0.01943615	0.00121688	0.00365061

Miracle         

Miracle	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Emerald Tower	0.01688881	0.00105716	0.00317143
Jade Dragon	4.75848679	0.42881393	1.28093323
Leaf Dragon	9.51697358	1.13660698	3.37121150
Jade shield	4.75848679	0.42881393	1.28093323
Jade Staff	4.75848679	0.42881393	1.28093323
Light Tower	0.03799982	0.00238311	0.00714917
Light Dragon	14.27546037	2.14762229	6.30548897
Elite Pegasus	9.51697358	1.13660698	3.37121150
Solar Buckler	4.75848679	0.42881393	1.28093323
Improved Blessing	14.27546037	2.14762229	6.30548897
Morning Glory	4.75848679	0.42881393	1.28093323
Improved Miracle	14.27546037	2.14762229	6.30548897
Wind Tower	0.01688881	0.00105716	0.00317143
Elite Queen	14.27546037	2.14762229	6.30548897

Morte           

Morte	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Bone Tower	0.00116503	0.00007282	0.00021847
Ivory Dragon	5.26309658	0.49022416	1.46347466
Retrovirus	15.78928973	2.53676361	7.41886820
Flesh Recluse	2.63154829	0.20410854	0.61107666
Condor	7.89464487	0.86244717	2.56509120
Graveyard	7.89464487	0.86244717	2.56509120
Deadly Poison	13.15774144	1.88161659	5.53930151
Improved Plague	7.89464487	0.86244717	2.56509120
Arsenic	5.26309658	0.49022416	1.46347466
Bone Wall	7.89464487	0.86244717	2.56509120
Ray of Light	15.78928973	2.53676361	7.41886820
Archangel	7.89464487	0.86244717	2.56509120
Improved Miracle	2.63154829	0.20410854	0.61107666

Neptune         

Neptune	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Water Tower	0.00397023	0.00024823	0.00074468
Abyss Crawler	15.99936476	2.59342766	7.58025128
Congeal	3.99984119	0.34238264	1.02363516
Permafrost Shield	7.99968238	0.87914928	2.61432868
Arctic Octopus	15.99936476	2.59342766	7.58025128
Poseidon	3.99984119	0.34238264	1.02363516
Arctic Dragon	7.99968238	0.87914928	2.61432868
Inundation	15.99936476	2.59342766	7.58025128
Eagle's Eye	3.99984119	0.34238264	1.02363516
Shockwave	23.99904714	5.25802144	14.95919737

Obliterator     

Obliterator	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Unstoppable	14.80803707	2.28070621	6.68725634
Gravity Force	18.51004633	3.32194857	9.63845132
Stone Tower	0.04574980	0.00287114	0.00861317
Basalt Dragon	18.51004633	3.32194857	9.63845132
Diamond Shield	7.40401853	0.78633146	2.34049349
Pulverizer	7.40401853	0.78633146	2.34049349
Elite Shrieker	22.21205560	4.57444826	13.10514977
Protect Artifact	11.10602780	1.43930567	4.25606716

Octane         

Octane	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Fire Lance	9.99853350	1.22472688	3.62936566
Fire Buckler	4.99926675	0.45772337	1.36689437
Explosion	9.99853350	1.22472688	3.62936566
Wind Tower	0.01466498	0.00091777	0.00275329
Animate Weapon	19.99706700	3.79902485	10.96957982
Eagle's Eye	24.99633376	5.66254456	16.04385797
Unstable Gas	29.99560051	7.94779493	21.99856565

Osiris         

Osiris	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Unstoppable	12.47558594	1.72801437	5.09497809
Trebuchet	12.47558594	1.72801437	5.09497809
Time Tower	0.19531250	0.01242189	0.03726103
Turtle Shield	6.23779297	0.61783289	1.84207072
Rewind	12.47558594	1.72801437	5.09497809
Eternity	6.23779297	0.61783289	1.84207072
Precognition	12.47558594	1.72801437	5.09497809
Pharaoh	37.42675781	12.18443428	32.28038032

Paradox         

Paradox	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Ray of Light	19.99998976	3.79999660	10.97227775
Improved Blessing	19.99998976	3.79999660	10.97227775
Mirror Shield	4.99999744	0.45781219	1.36715840
Morning Glory	4.99999744	0.45781219	1.36715840
Improved Miracle	7.49999616	0.80097597	2.38373243
Elite Deja Vu	19.99998976	3.79999660	10.97227775
Electrum Hourglass	9.99999488	1.22499905	3.63016229
Aether Tower	0.00005120	0.00000320	0.00000960
Twin Universe	12.49999360	1.73339703	5.11057195

Rainbow         

Rainbow	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower	0.02621440	0.00164227	0.00492672
Werewolf	11.10819840	1.43974269	4.25734073
Gravity Force	8.33114880	0.93280135	2.77238167
Elite Graboid	11.10819840	1.43974269	4.25734073
Forest Spectre	11.10819840	1.43974269	4.25734073
Explosion	11.10819840	1.43974269	4.25734073
Congeal	8.33114880	0.93280135	2.77238167
Improved Miracle	5.55409920	0.52707629	1.57290922
Eagle's Eye	5.55409920	0.52707629	1.57290922
Electrum Hourglass	13.88524800	2.05271903	6.03261238
Improved Steal	8.33114880	0.93280135	2.77238167
Thunderbolt	5.55409920	0.52707629	1.57290922

Scorpio         

Scorpio	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Deadly Poison	15.14843277	2.36793102	6.93690785
Arsenic	3.02968655	0.24203014	0.72433449
Water Tower	0.01743745	0.00109155	0.00327462
Physalia	9.08905966	1.06091025	3.14908424
Abyss Crawler	9.08905966	1.06091025	3.14908424
Congeal	9.08905966	1.06091025	3.14908424
Ice Lance	3.02968655	0.24203014	0.72433449
Permafrost Shield	6.05937311	0.59358118	1.77019430
Purify	3.02968655	0.24203014	0.72433449
Arctic Octopus	6.05937311	0.59358118	1.77019430
Poseidon	3.02968655	0.24203014	0.72433449
Arctic Dragon	3.02968655	0.24203014	0.72433449
Puffer Fish	18.17811933	3.22013699	9.35267156
Ulitharid	6.05937311	0.59358118	1.77019430
Aether Tower	0.00290624	0.00018169	0.00054506
Twin Universe	6.05937311	0.59358118	1.77019430

Seism           

Seism	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Stone Tower	0.00745177	0.00046605	0.00139814
Elite Antlion	3.33308494	0.27219707	0.81437050
Steel Golem	6.66616988	0.67770699	2.01937349
Basalt Dragon	6.66616988	0.67770699	2.01937349
Diamond Shield	3.33308494	0.27219707	0.81437050
Gnome Gemfinder	9.99925482	1.22486121	3.62975886
Pulverizer	3.33308494	0.27219707	0.81437050
Elite Graboid	19.99850965	3.79950447	10.97091145
Protect Artifact	6.66616988	0.67770699	2.01937349
Quicksand	19.99850965	3.79950447	10.97091145
Granite skin	3.33308494	0.27219707	0.81437050
Rewind	13.33233976	1.92199122	5.65586216
Silurian Dragon	3.33308494	0.27219707	0.81437050

Serket         

Serket	P(choose card)[%]	P(win card) in 1 spin[%]	P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Relic	7.99882680	0.87901265	2.61392597
Bone Tower	0.00684366	0.00042799	0.00128397
Flesh Recluse	19.99706700	3.79902485	10.96957982
Arsenic	7.99882680	0.87901265	2.61392597
Deathstalker	19.99706700	3.79902485	10.96957982
Emerald Tower	0.00782132	0.00048918	0.00146752
Scorpion	19.99706700	3.79902485	10.96957982
Life Nymph	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000
Eclipse	11.99824020	1.62442395	4.79453791
Cloak	11.99824020	1.62442395	4.79453791

[kev]

Wow.  Thanks, Dark Weaver.  That's an amazing body of work.

I'd love to hear a little more about the methodology.  jmizzle says above that only zanz knows the current algorithm, and afaik you aren't zanz.  You mention using four cards in the spins but some previous sources point to five.  And you didn't mention the number of repicks to find a non-pillar card.

I have to ask, essentially because it's your first forum post and the complex math might as well be witchcraft to me.  Thanks again.  Even as an approximation this is tremendously useful information.  +karma 

[Falcon4415]

That is certainly one of the most epic first posts I have ever seen. I'm guessing he used the same method Chriskang used eons ago (i.e. dwelving into the depths of the game's code, getting the algorithm, calculating and then testing the results). If this is right, the algorithm has been changed a little, because these results aren't the same Chriskang got.
If I were to say how many repicks towers get, I' say it's still or around 10, as my calculations placed 0.01% as the chance of winning a tower from a half-tower deck, which are close to those of FGs (some more than others).

Oh, I went ahead and calculated the mean chanced of winning a card, yielding an impressive 41.25% (the last time we heard about this from Zanz, he talked about a mean chance around 33%).

[teffy]

I´m always careful with this kind of "epic post". There are many people in this forum, who talk about probabilities and make beginner mistakes like not using the right distributions , independence mistakes, adding probabilities, although you are not allowed to do this.

Did you use the algorithm of the Slot Wheel Mystery (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,590.0.html), but with 4, not 5 cards ?

[BluePriest]

I´m always careful with this kind of "epic post". There are many people in this forum, who talk about probabilities and make beginner mistakes like not using the right distributions , independence mistakes, adding probabilities, although you are not allowed to do this.

Did you use the algorithm of the Slot Wheel Mystery (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,590.0.html), but with 4, not 5 cards ?

I have a feeling he grabbed the swf, decompiled, and looked through the code.