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Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259082#msg259082
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2011, 06:47:23 pm »
Three things, if I may:

-Do we know whether the slots currently work with four cards or five? They used to select five, then only work with four. I still don't know whether that bug has ever been fixed or not.

-Do we know whether the slots draw cards from one half or the whole of an FG's deck? (I'd assume the former, but I can't really know...)

-The SoD need to be taken into account. 10% chance to replace first card on shortlist of five cards with a shard. Though depending on how the bug with only four cards being used works (if it's still present) this might not actually be 10%...

smuglapse

  • Guest
Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259097#msg259097
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2011, 07:31:24 pm »
Maybe this old post will help you some. It doesn't include the recent changes, though (Osiris with Trebuchet).

Re: Cards you'll most likely win from the spin vs FGs (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,13051.msg177295#msg177295)

QuantumT

  • Guest
Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259102#msg259102
« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2011, 07:43:15 pm »
From what I recall, towers weren't actually a common thing to win with the exception of quantum towers. This isn't because rainbow has more towers than any other god (Fire queen has more and Hermes has almost the same ratio of fire towers), but because of a weird issue where it didn't try and repick quantum towers.

Falcon4415

  • Guest
Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259155#msg259155
« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2011, 09:21:32 pm »
Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately? :o

QuantumT

  • Guest
Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259160#msg259160
« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2011, 09:26:33 pm »
Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately? :o
I had realized that, but it won't make a huge difference really. It only slightly lowers the chances of having multiples in the spins.

Falcon4415

  • Guest
Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259209#msg259209
« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2011, 11:00:25 pm »
Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately? :o
I had realized that, but it won't make a huge difference really. It only slightly lowers the chances of having multiples in the spins.
My point was that, as we know that the algorithm has been modified since it was ripped open and shared with the community, we can't really be sure of whether there have been more modifications other than that obvious one, especially after what jmizzle7 told us.

Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg259383#msg259383
« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2011, 07:54:02 am »
Just realized how blind we are: the algorithm has obviously been changed since that post: who has seen a SoD appear in spins lately? :o
I had realized that, but it won't make a huge difference really. It only slightly lowers the chances of having multiples in the spins.
My point was that, as we know that the algorithm has been modified since it was ripped open and shared with the community, we can't really be sure of whether there have been more modifications other than that obvious one, especially after what jmizzle7 told us.
I'm currently working on finding the algorithm from the .swf, but it's pretty complicated. Does anyone have the exact formula? I can do the probabilities, but I would like to know for sure the precise formula before I get started.

Dark Weaver

  • Guest
Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg281618#msg281618
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2011, 11:54:23 am »
hi,
i've done the maths with the latest algorithm, however i wont post the algorithm (unless i'm explicitly authorised to do so).
what you should know:
    The slot machine works with 3 reels, each reel is composed of 4 cards (not necessarily different), reels are the same.Each try uses a different set of 4 cards.You wont get upgraded cards unless you play against the FG or the Half Blood.There are cards you cannot win, you'll get a relic instead.Quantum tower is fixed (its considered a tower/pillar).I've seen nowhere a 10% thing related to shards.(would have done the calculus more interesting :) )

First table shows the probability to win at least 1 card from the specific FG, either with 1 try|spin (2nd column) or with 3 tries|spins (3rd column).
The other tables shows the probability to win  at least 1 of a specific card from a FG deck with 1 try and 3 tries ; the first data is the probability the card will be choosen for the reel.
Results should be accurate, i did some simulations giving nearly the same results.

DeckName
P(win a card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win a card) in 3 spin[%]
Akebono         20.7480370550.22284357
Chaos Lord      13.0957043834.36677695
Dark Matter     14.0111225136.41907543
Decay           20.5093069749.77165716
Destiny         15.3623720039.36959757
Divine Glory    23.8680492855.87335859
Dream Catcher   12.5282279633.07262768
Elidnis         12.5091986233.02893835
Eternal Phoenix 19.0865937547.02616033
Ferox           14.9428472238.46353803
Fire Queen      18.7044003346.27194528
Gemini          17.1513509543.13352697
Graviton        15.9688443440.66362524
Hecate          18.3636667045.59353983
Hermes          13.2047356134.61349998
Incarnate       16.3101086041.38361745
Jezebel         21.6453292051.89450688
Lionheart       16.7607345242.32538319
Miracle         13.0122701934.17755799
Morte           12.6561178733.36575632
Neptune         15.8239991440.35626022
Obliterator     16.5138913441.81076384
Octane          20.3174592349.40710619
Osiris          20.3445794149.45874692
Paradox         16.0749894140.88819591
Rainbow         12.1929649732.30011393
Scorpio         12.3565474432.67777942
Seism           14.1404337636.70548589
Serket          16.4048649141.58249401

Akebono         
Akebono         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Tower Shield 
5.87364320
0.56876238
1.69660082
Gravity Tower
0.14806567
0.00937755
0.02813000
Elite Armagio
11.74728639
1.57123995
4.64004391
Massive Dragon
35.24185917
10.83017686
29.09877876
Unstoppable   
5.87364320
0.56876238
1.69660082
Titan         
5.87364320
0.56876238
1.69660082
Chimera       
11.74728639
1.57123995
4.64004391
Overdrive     
23.49457278
5.05971560
14.42407838

Chaos Lord     
Chaos Lord     
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower   
0.00775813
0.00048522
0.00145566
Amethyst Tower   
0.00775813
0.00048522
0.00145566
Maxwell's Demon 
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713
Amethyst Dragon 
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713
Dissipation Field
6.05966568
0.59362062
1.77031122
Werewolf         
6.05966568
0.59362062
1.77031122
Chaos Power     
9.08949852
1.06098663
3.14930855
Supernova       
18.17899704
3.22040398
9.35342177
Improved Mutation
9.08949852
1.06098663
3.14930855
Discord         
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713
Fallen Druid     
12.11933136
1.65040050
4.86993638
Unstoppable     
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713
Explosion       
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713
Congeal         
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713
Ray of Light     
18.17899704
3.22040398
9.35342177
Improved Steal   
3.02983284
0.24204442
0.72437713

Dark Matter     
Dark Matter     
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Relic           
7.14079759
0.74677853
2.22364690
Gravity Tower   
0.02883379
0.00180679
0.00542027
Elite Charger   
14.28159517
2.14913188
6.30982524
Elite Armagio   
3.57039879
0.29656280
0.88705252
Massive Dragon   
3.57039879
0.29656280
0.88705252
Unstoppable     
3.57039879
0.29656280
0.88705252
Elite Otyugh     
7.14079759
0.74677853
2.22364690
Titan           
3.57039879
0.29656280
0.88705252
Gravity Force   
14.28159517
2.14913188
6.30982524
Black Hole       
21.42239276
4.28898622
12.32298634
Gravity Nymph   
0.00000000
0.00000000
0.00000000
Archangel       
14.28159517
2.14913188
6.30982524
Improved Blessing
3.57039879
0.29656280
0.88705252
Morning Glory   
3.57039879
0.29656280
0.88705252

Decay           
Decay           
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Pest         
26.08690304
6.12412415
17.27019402
Improved Dusk
4.34781717
0.38115293
1.13910600
Improved Steal
8.69563435
0.99346292
2.95087776
Eclipse       
4.34781717
0.38115293
1.13910600
Siphon Life   
26.08690304
6.12412415
17.27019402
Aether Tower 
0.00020502
0.00001281
0.00003844
Electrocutor 
4.34781717
0.38115293
1.13910600
Fractal       
26.08690304
6.12412415
17.27019402

Destiny         
Destiny         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Amethyst Tower   
0.02517490
0.00157700
0.00473091
Maxwell's Demon   
6.89374709
0.71046591
2.11629073
Chaos Power       
17.23436773
2.93986770
8.56285931
Supernova         
17.23436773
2.93986770
8.56285931
Fallen Druid     
6.89374709
0.71046591
2.11629073
Time Tower       
0.01549224
0.00096962
0.00290882
Fate Egg         
20.68124128
4.03017929
11.60981347
Rewind           
13.78749419
2.02928775
5.96515865
Electrum Hourglass
10.34062064
1.28922523
3.81802691
Eternity         
6.89374709
0.71046591
2.11629073

Divine Glory   
Divine Glory   
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Burning Tower   
0.01268699
0.00079384
0.00238151
Explosion       
29.97970082
7.93982874
21.97831319
Light Tower     
0.05497696
0.00345307
0.01035884
Morning Glory   
29.97970082
7.93982874
21.97831319
Improved Miracle
14.98985041
2.32708425
6.82005330
Animate Weapon 
24.98308401
5.65706064
16.02921578

Dream Catcher   
Dream Catcher   
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Relic           
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Amethyst Tower   
0.00000610
0.00000038
0.00000114
Micro Abomination
18.74999886
3.39660609
9.84762892
Supernova       
18.74999886
3.39660609
9.84762892
Discord         
6.24999962
0.61950678
1.84703047
Butterfly Effect
9.37499943
1.11122121
3.29675647
Purple Nymph     
0.00000000
0.00000000
0.00000000
Black Hole       
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Protect Artifact
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Quicksand       
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Rage Elixir     
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Physalia         
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Congeal         
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Shockwave       
6.24999962
0.61950678
1.84703047
Elite Deja Vu   
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Fate Egg         
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Pest             
6.24999962
0.61950678
1.84703047
Thunderbolt     
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130
Quintessence     
3.12499981
0.25138853
0.75227130

Elidnis         
Elidnis         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Forest Spectre   
15.38427854
2.42936093
7.11246270
Improved Heal     
5.12809285
0.47348539
1.41374113
Jade shield       
2.56404642
0.19786566
0.59242324
Jade Staff       
2.56404642
0.19786566
0.59242324
Ferald Bond       
12.82023211
1.80479694
5.31725994
Water Tower       
0.00128795
0.00008051
0.00024152
Abyss Crawler     
7.69213927
0.83065197
2.47131376
Congeal           
12.82023211
1.80479694
5.31725994
Puffer Fish       
7.69213927
0.83065197
2.47131376
Ulitharid         
7.69213927
0.83065197
2.47131376
Aether Tower     
0.00090157
0.00005635
0.00016906
Twin Universe     
12.82023211
1.80479694
5.31725994
Elite Phase Dragon
7.69213927
0.83065197
2.47131376
Quintessence     
5.12809285
0.47348539
1.41374113


Eternal Phoenix
Eternal Phoenix
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Burning Tower
0.01197962
0.00074953
0.00224858
Ruby Dragon 
10.52505478
1.32465774
3.92156411
Fire Lance   
10.52505478
1.32465774
3.92156411
Explosion   
21.05010955
4.15788885
11.96221354
Fire Storm   
5.26252739
0.49015311
1.46326361
Minor Phoenix
31.57516433
8.76202796
24.05015870
Thunderbolt 
5.26252739
0.49015311
1.46326361
Fractal     
15.78758217
2.53630571
7.41756329

Ferox           
Ferox           
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Emerald Tower   
0.00508053
0.00031768
0.00095303
Jade Dragon     
11.76410817
1.57477755
4.65032545
Giant Frog     
11.76410817
1.57477755
4.65032545
Leaf Dragon     
17.64616226
3.06049174
8.90334357
Elite Cockatrice
11.76410817
1.57477755
4.65032545
Jade shield     
2.94102704
0.23342237
0.69863381
Jade Staff     
2.94102704
0.23342237
0.69863381
Ferald Bond     
17.64616226
3.06049174
8.90334357
Epinephrine     
5.88205409
0.56987693
1.69990650
Ray of Light   
17.64616226
3.06049174
8.90334357

Fire Queen     
Fire Queen     
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Emerald Tower
0.23136628
0.01476196
0.04427936
Ferald Bond   
25.98510506
6.08018143
17.15396370
Fire Lance   
12.99255253
1.84381664
5.43008696
Fahrenheit   
8.66170169
0.98774159
2.93405213
Wind Tower   
0.15906431
0.01008399
0.03024892
Animate Weapon
12.99255253
1.84381664
5.43008696
Elite Queen   
25.98510506
6.08018143
17.15396370
Eagle's Eye   
12.99255253
1.84381664
5.43008696

Gemini         
Gemini         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Gravity Tower     
0.01346689
0.00084270
0.00252808
Massive Dragon   
11.53354094
1.52663154
4.51033231
Unstoppable       
15.37805459
2.42772930
7.10780268
Aether Tower     
0.02917827
0.00182843
0.00548519
Twin Universe     
23.06708189
4.89496673
13.97780790
Elite Immortal   
3.84451365
0.32555207
0.97348014
Phase Shield     
15.37805459
2.42772930
7.10780268
Electrocutor     
3.84451365
0.32555207
0.97348014
Elite Phase Dragon
3.84451365
0.32555207
0.97348014
Phase Recluse     
23.06708189
4.89496673
13.97780790

Graviton       
Graviton       
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Gravity Tower     
0.02621440
0.00164227
0.00492672
Elite Charger     
9.52131291
1.13738712
3.37349902
Elite Armagio     
4.76065646
0.42907124
1.28169855
Gravity Shield     
4.76065646
0.42907124
1.28169855
Unstoppable       
14.28196937
2.14922398
6.31008978
Elite Otyugh       
14.28196937
2.14922398
6.31008978
Titan             
4.76065646
0.42907124
1.28169855
Gravity Force     
4.76065646
0.42907124
1.28169855
Graviton Firemaster
28.56393874
7.24862368
20.20768081
Explosion         
9.52131291
1.13738712
3.37349902
Fire Storm         
4.76065646
0.42907124
1.28169855

Hecate         
Hecate         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Rage Elixir   
26.08639444
6.12390417
17.26961242
Obsidian Tower
0.00215464
0.00013469
0.00040407
Improved Dusk
4.34773241
0.38114330
1.13907734
Improved Steal
8.69546481
0.99343430
2.95079359
Eclipse       
8.69546481
0.99343430
2.95079359
Vampire Dagger
4.34773241
0.38114330
1.13907734
Liquid Shadow
17.39092963
2.98542516
8.69155341
Voodoo Doll   
26.08639444
6.12390417
17.26961242
Nightmare     
4.34773241
0.38114330
1.13907734

Hermes         
Hermes         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Heavy Armor     
7.89419265
0.86237557
2.56488009
Protect Artifact
5.26279510
0.49018653
1.46336287
Burning Tower   
0.00689315
0.00043109
0.00129326
Brimstone Eater
10.52559019
1.32476127
3.92186654
Ruby Dragon     
2.63139755
0.20409454
0.61103483
Fire Spectre   
10.52559019
1.32476127
3.92186654
Fire Lance     
15.78838529
2.53652107
7.41817702
Fire Buckler   
2.63139755
0.20409454
0.61103483
Explosion       
15.78838529
2.53652107
7.41817702
Fahrenheit     
2.63139755
0.20409454
0.61103483
Fire Storm     
5.26279510
0.49018653
1.46336287
Lava Destroyer 
15.78838529
2.53652107
7.41817702
Rage Elixir     
5.26279510
0.49018653
1.46336287

Incarnate       
Incarnate       
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Retrovirus   
14.28462157
2.14987678
6.31196491
Graveyard     
17.85577696
3.12288298
9.07912254
Bone Wall     
14.28462157
2.14987678
6.31196491
Obsidian Tower
0.00764901
0.00047839
0.00143517
Bloodsucker   
14.28462157
2.14987678
6.31196491
Eclipse       
14.28462157
2.14987678
6.31196491
Vampire Dagger
3.57115539
0.29664157
0.88728742
Vampire       
21.42693235
4.29059853
12.32741719

Jezebel         
Jezebel         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower   
0.11488971
0.00725491
0.02176316
Water Tower     
0.08042279
0.00506283
0.01518771
Permafrost Shield
5.87086397
0.56839429
1.69550908
Nymph's Tears   
35.22518382
10.82019609
29.07496818
Improved Steal   
23.48345588
5.05539311
14.41238942
Vampire Dagger   
5.87086397
0.56839429
1.69550908
Siphon Life     
11.74172794
1.57007188
4.63664891
Cloak           
17.61259191
3.05056180
8.87534642

Lionheart (Eternal Crusader)
Lionheart
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower     
0.01943615
0.00121688
0.00365061
Light Tower       
0.03239358
0.00203050
0.00609138
Crusader         
23.78021534
5.17148130
14.72594805
Animate Weapon   
4.75604307
0.42852419
1.28007145
Time Tower       
0.05182972
0.00325447
0.00976310
Turtle Shield     
9.51208613
1.13572859
3.36863589
Electrum Hourglass
23.78021534
5.17148130
14.72594805
Elite Anubis     
14.26812920
2.14581903
6.30030895
Eternity         
9.51208613
1.13572859
3.36863589
Pharaoh           
4.75604307
0.42852419
1.28007145
Quintessence     
9.51208613
1.13572859
3.36863589
Aether Pendulum   
0.01943615
0.00121688
0.00365061

Miracle         
Miracle         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Emerald Tower   
0.01688881
0.00105716
0.00317143
Jade Dragon     
4.75848679
0.42881393
1.28093323
Leaf Dragon     
9.51697358
1.13660698
3.37121150
Jade shield     
4.75848679
0.42881393
1.28093323
Jade Staff       
4.75848679
0.42881393
1.28093323
Light Tower     
0.03799982
0.00238311
0.00714917
Light Dragon     
14.27546037
2.14762229
6.30548897
Elite Pegasus   
9.51697358
1.13660698
3.37121150
Solar Buckler   
4.75848679
0.42881393
1.28093323
Improved Blessing
14.27546037
2.14762229
6.30548897
Morning Glory   
4.75848679
0.42881393
1.28093323
Improved Miracle
14.27546037
2.14762229
6.30548897
Wind Tower       
0.01688881
0.00105716
0.00317143
Elite Queen     
14.27546037
2.14762229
6.30548897

Morte           
Morte           
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Bone Tower     
0.00116503
0.00007282
0.00021847
Ivory Dragon   
5.26309658
0.49022416
1.46347466
Retrovirus     
15.78928973
2.53676361
7.41886820
Flesh Recluse   
2.63154829
0.20410854
0.61107666
Condor         
7.89464487
0.86244717
2.56509120
Graveyard       
7.89464487
0.86244717
2.56509120
Deadly Poison   
13.15774144
1.88161659
5.53930151
Improved Plague
7.89464487
0.86244717
2.56509120
Arsenic         
5.26309658
0.49022416
1.46347466
Bone Wall       
7.89464487
0.86244717
2.56509120
Ray of Light   
15.78928973
2.53676361
7.41886820
Archangel       
7.89464487
0.86244717
2.56509120
Improved Miracle
2.63154829
0.20410854
0.61107666

Neptune         
Neptune         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Water Tower     
0.00397023
0.00024823
0.00074468
Abyss Crawler   
15.99936476
2.59342766
7.58025128
Congeal         
3.99984119
0.34238264
1.02363516
Permafrost Shield
7.99968238
0.87914928
2.61432868
Arctic Octopus   
15.99936476
2.59342766
7.58025128
Poseidon         
3.99984119
0.34238264
1.02363516
Arctic Dragon   
7.99968238
0.87914928
2.61432868
Inundation       
15.99936476
2.59342766
7.58025128
Eagle's Eye     
3.99984119
0.34238264
1.02363516
Shockwave       
23.99904714
5.25802144
14.95919737

Obliterator     
Obliterator     
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Unstoppable     
14.80803707
2.28070621
6.68725634
Gravity Force   
18.51004633
3.32194857
9.63845132
Stone Tower     
0.04574980
0.00287114
0.00861317
Basalt Dragon   
18.51004633
3.32194857
9.63845132
Diamond Shield 
7.40401853
0.78633146
2.34049349
Pulverizer     
7.40401853
0.78633146
2.34049349
Elite Shrieker 
22.21205560
4.57444826
13.10514977
Protect Artifact
11.10602780
1.43930567
4.25606716

Octane         
Octane         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Fire Lance   
9.99853350
1.22472688
3.62936566
Fire Buckler 
4.99926675
0.45772337
1.36689437
Explosion     
9.99853350
1.22472688
3.62936566
Wind Tower   
0.01466498
0.00091777
0.00275329
Animate Weapon
19.99706700
3.79902485
10.96957982
Eagle's Eye   
24.99633376
5.66254456
16.04385797
Unstable Gas 
29.99560051
7.94779493
21.99856565

Osiris         
Osiris         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Unstoppable 
12.47558594
1.72801437
5.09497809
Trebuchet   
12.47558594
1.72801437
5.09497809
Time Tower   
0.19531250
0.01242189
0.03726103
Turtle Shield
6.23779297
0.61783289
1.84207072
Rewind       
12.47558594
1.72801437
5.09497809
Eternity     
6.23779297
0.61783289
1.84207072
Precognition
12.47558594
1.72801437
5.09497809
Pharaoh     
37.42675781
12.18443428
32.28038032

Paradox         
Paradox         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Ray of Light     
19.99998976
3.79999660
10.97227775
Improved Blessing
19.99998976
3.79999660
10.97227775
Mirror Shield     
4.99999744
0.45781219
1.36715840
Morning Glory     
4.99999744
0.45781219
1.36715840
Improved Miracle 
7.49999616
0.80097597
2.38373243
Elite Deja Vu     
19.99998976
3.79999660
10.97227775
Electrum Hourglass
9.99999488
1.22499905
3.63016229
Aether Tower     
0.00005120
0.00000320
0.00000960
Twin Universe     
12.49999360
1.73339703
5.11057195

Rainbow         
Rainbow         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Quantum Tower     
0.02621440
0.00164227
0.00492672
Werewolf         
11.10819840
1.43974269
4.25734073
Gravity Force     
8.33114880
0.93280135
2.77238167
Elite Graboid     
11.10819840
1.43974269
4.25734073
Forest Spectre   
11.10819840
1.43974269
4.25734073
Explosion         
11.10819840
1.43974269
4.25734073
Congeal           
8.33114880
0.93280135
2.77238167
Improved Miracle 
5.55409920
0.52707629
1.57290922
Eagle's Eye       
5.55409920
0.52707629
1.57290922
Electrum Hourglass
13.88524800
2.05271903
6.03261238
Improved Steal   
8.33114880
0.93280135
2.77238167
Thunderbolt       
5.55409920
0.52707629
1.57290922

Scorpio         
Scorpio         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Deadly Poison   
15.14843277
2.36793102
6.93690785
Arsenic         
3.02968655
0.24203014
0.72433449
Water Tower     
0.01743745
0.00109155
0.00327462
Physalia         
9.08905966
1.06091025
3.14908424
Abyss Crawler   
9.08905966
1.06091025
3.14908424
Congeal         
9.08905966
1.06091025
3.14908424
Ice Lance       
3.02968655
0.24203014
0.72433449
Permafrost Shield
6.05937311
0.59358118
1.77019430
Purify           
3.02968655
0.24203014
0.72433449
Arctic Octopus   
6.05937311
0.59358118
1.77019430
Poseidon         
3.02968655
0.24203014
0.72433449
Arctic Dragon   
3.02968655
0.24203014
0.72433449
Puffer Fish     
18.17811933
3.22013699
9.35267156
Ulitharid       
6.05937311
0.59358118
1.77019430
Aether Tower     
0.00290624
0.00018169
0.00054506
Twin Universe   
6.05937311
0.59358118
1.77019430

Seism           
Seism           
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Stone Tower     
0.00745177
0.00046605
0.00139814
Elite Antlion   
3.33308494
0.27219707
0.81437050
Steel Golem     
6.66616988
0.67770699
2.01937349
Basalt Dragon   
6.66616988
0.67770699
2.01937349
Diamond Shield 
3.33308494
0.27219707
0.81437050
Gnome Gemfinder
9.99925482
1.22486121
3.62975886
Pulverizer     
3.33308494
0.27219707
0.81437050
Elite Graboid   
19.99850965
3.79950447
10.97091145
Protect Artifact
6.66616988
0.67770699
2.01937349
Quicksand       
19.99850965
3.79950447
10.97091145
Granite skin   
3.33308494
0.27219707
0.81437050
Rewind         
13.33233976
1.92199122
5.65586216
Silurian Dragon
3.33308494
0.27219707
0.81437050

Serket         
Serket         
P(choose card)[%]
P(win card) in 1 spin[%]
P(win card) in 3 spin[%]
Relic       
7.99882680
0.87901265
2.61392597
Bone Tower   
0.00684366
0.00042799
0.00128397
Flesh Recluse
19.99706700
3.79902485
10.96957982
Arsenic     
7.99882680
0.87901265
2.61392597
Deathstalker
19.99706700
3.79902485
10.96957982
Emerald Tower
0.00782132
0.00048918
0.00146752
Scorpion     
19.99706700
3.79902485
10.96957982
Life Nymph   
0.00000000
0.00000000
0.00000000
Eclipse     
11.99824020
1.62442395
4.79453791
Cloak       
11.99824020
1.62442395
4.79453791


Offline kevTopic starter

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Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg281685#msg281685
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2011, 03:03:14 pm »
Wow.  Thanks, Dark Weaver.  That's an amazing body of work.

I'd love to hear a little more about the methodology.  jmizzle says above that only zanz knows the current algorithm, and afaik you aren't zanz.  :) You mention using four cards in the spins but some previous sources point to five.  And you didn't mention the number of repicks to find a non-pillar card.

I have to ask, essentially because it's your first forum post and the complex math might as well be witchcraft to me.  Thanks again.  Even as an approximation this is tremendously useful information.  +karma  :D

Falcon4415

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Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg281724#msg281724
« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2011, 03:46:14 pm »
That is certainly one of the most epic first posts I have ever seen. I'm guessing he used the same method Chriskang used eons ago (i.e. dwelving into the depths of the game's code, getting the algorithm, calculating and then testing the results). If this is right, the algorithm has been changed a little, because these results aren't the same Chriskang got.
If I were to say how many repicks towers get, I' say it's still or around 10, as my calculations placed 0.01% as the chance of winning a tower from a half-tower deck, which are close to those of FGs (some more than others).

Oh, I went ahead and calculated the mean chanced of winning a card, yielding an impressive 41.25% (the last time we heard about this from Zanz, he talked about a mean chance around 33%).

Offline teffy

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Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg281755#msg281755
« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2011, 04:22:21 pm »
I´m always careful with this kind of "epic post". There are many people in this forum, who talk about probabilities and make beginner mistakes like not using the right distributions , independence mistakes, adding probabilities, although you are not allowed to do this.

Did you use the algorithm of the Slot Wheel Mystery (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,590.0.html), but with 4, not 5 cards ?
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Re: Drop rates and deck selection https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=20376.msg281781#msg281781
« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2011, 05:17:34 pm »
I´m always careful with this kind of "epic post". There are many people in this forum, who talk about probabilities and make beginner mistakes like not using the right distributions , independence mistakes, adding probabilities, although you are not allowed to do this.

Did you use the algorithm of the Slot Wheel Mystery (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,590.0.html), but with 4, not 5 cards ?
I have a feeling he grabbed the swf, decompiled, and looked through the code.
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