Post by: Xenocidius on September 18, 2011, 07:29:04 am
Using the slot machine algorithm provided by Dark Weaver, I wrote a
>> Open the XenoSim™ in a new window << (http://xenocidius.webs.com/slotmachinesimulator.htm)
Basically, you copy and paste a deck code, enter the amount of games you would like to win, and it will run a simulation, then return the number of cards it won and the number of games in which it won a card.
It can handle 10000 games pretty soundly, but can get quite slow with significantly higher numbers.
Thoughts? Queries? Suggestions?
Thanks to:
- Dark Weaver: for providing the algorithm and correcting mine.
- Jenkar: for helping me with (by which I mean making) the card database.
- Malignant: for assisting and hindering us.
- Bhlewos: for coming up with the name.
- light_sefi: for inspiring me to make it in the first place.
Post by: PlayerOa on September 18, 2011, 07:30:41 am
Post by: Xenocidius on September 24, 2011, 06:18:49 am
The new version can be found here (http://xenocidius.webs.com/simulator.htm).
New features:
- A full table of different cards won
- A pretty background
Post by: Xenocidius on September 24, 2011, 11:24:28 am
New features:
- Countless bug fixes
- Support for Relics
Thoughts?
Post by: Xenocidius on September 24, 2011, 02:58:44 pm
It is now in Delta.
New features:
- Shows the name of each card won
- Shows extra electrum won from spins (5 :electrum for each matchup of 2 + sell prices for cards won)
- Shows extra electrum won per game on average
Post by: Bhlewos on September 25, 2011, 01:44:02 am
One question -- I input Decay's deck in here, and got back an "undefined". I thought it might be the mark so I took that out, but I still got the result:
(http://i786.photobucket.com/albums/yy150/BhlewosAQW/ElementsTheGame/XenoSim.png)
Here's the deck for reference.
EDIT: Actually, by process of elimination, it seems to be Eclipse?
Post by: Xenocidius on September 25, 2011, 01:46:46 am
Edit: Fixed. It should work now.
Post by: Xenocidius on September 25, 2011, 03:39:26 am
New features:
- There is now an option to select whether the spin allows upgraded cards to be won
- Upgraded card names are bolded
I hope you enjoy the tool.
Post by: rosutosefi on September 25, 2011, 03:43:49 am
Post by: Xenocidius on September 25, 2011, 11:21:48 am
New features:
- Export forum code: Create a copy-paste-able code for easy copy-pasting into the Forums!
- Version update: Supports 1.29
Runs: 100000
Upgraded spin: No
Cards won: 41315
Cards per game: 0.413
Droprate (%): 33.584
Extra electrum won: 2365006
Extra electrum per game: 23.65
Card | Won (total) | % of all cards won | Won (per game) |
| Aether Pillar | 394 | 0.95 | 0.004 |
| Lightning | 4249 | 10.28 | 0.042 |
| Parallel Universe | 2313 | 5.60 | 0.023 |
| Immortal | 2315 | 5.60 | 0.023 |
| Dimensional Shield | 9702 | 23.48 | 0.097 |
| Lobotomizer | 2358 | 5.71 | 0.024 |
| Phase Dragon | 4306 | 10.42 | 0.043 |
| Phase Spider | 6674 | 16.15 | 0.067 |
| Mindgate | 6745 | 16.33 | 0.067 |
| Silence | 2259 | 5.47 | 0.023 |
Post by: rosutosefi on September 25, 2011, 12:52:49 pm
It only lasts 1-2 mins. ;D
Post by: Bhlewos on September 25, 2011, 08:00:21 pm
Just out of curiosity, I took a list of the card droprates of all the False Gods then ranked them from highest droprate to lowest -- plus most-won card, just because. 10,000 runs for all of them.
| False God | Card Droprate | Most Won Card |
| Divine Glory | 48.76 | Morning Glory |
| Decay | 45.50 | Fractal |
| Octane | 44.29 | Unstable Gas |
| Jezebel | 43.33 | Nymph's Tears |
| Akebono | 42.82 | Massive Dragon |
| Eternal Phoenix | 41.83 | Minor Phoenix |
| Osiris | 41.50 | Pharaoh |
| Hecate | 41.40 | Voodoo Doll |
| Fire Queen | 40.16 | Feral Bond |
| Gemini | 39.14 | Twin Universe |
| Serket | 38.41 | Deathstalker |
| Incarnate | 37.91 | Vampire |
| Obliterator | 37.86 | Elite Shrieker |
| Graviton | 37.23 | Graviton Firemaster |
| Paradox | 36.70 | Improved Blessing/Elite Deja Vu (tie) |
| Lionheart | 36.69 | Crusader |
| Neptune | 36.47 | Shockwave |
| Destiny | 35.66 | Fate Egg |
| Ferox | 35.39 | Ray of Light |
| Seism | 33.57 | Elite Graboid |
| Dark Matter | 33.23 | Black Hole |
| Chaos Lord | 32.58 | Supernova/Ray of Light (tie) |
| Morte | 31.97 | Retrovirus |
| Hermes | 31.28 | Lava Destroyer |
| Elidnis | 30.91 | Forest Spectre |
| Dream Catcher | 30.88 | Supernova |
| Miracle | 30.49 | Elite Queen |
| Scorpio | 30.26 | Pufferfish |
| Rainbow | 29.58 | Electrum Hourglass |
- 10k runs still isn't the most accurate, so take these with a grain of salt, but only a grain. Running multiple tests on the same False God, for example, gave a max of 1 percent difference either way, so these can be taken to be pretty accurate.
- Matches up with experience as well. For example any long-time veteran FG farmer can tell you Divine Glory and Decay have the best droprates, whereas Rainbow is the clear loser of the bunch (as if anyone needed another reason to skip him).
- Most won cards shouldn't be seen as anything other than a ballpark. While some (Pharaoh for Osiris and Graviton Firemaster for Graviton) were pretty obvious -- both approached 50% out of the cards won -- others, like Supernova for Dream Catcher, were pretty close to the "second place" cards and
couldwill be different for new tests. - I found two more cards that the XenoSim registers as "undefined" -- Crusader and Condor.
Post by: Xenocidius on September 25, 2011, 11:57:12 pm
And well done with the droprate table. I somewhat neglect droprate, instead preferring number of cards won per game, but it seems they are not the same; Decay is much lower on the scale of cards per game.
Post by: Jangoo on September 29, 2011, 06:41:54 am
=O You used my nickname for the "XenoSim"! =DThe numbers don't match DarkWeavers calculations which have been verified by empirical testing in over 13k games (against all gods that is):
Just out of curiosity, I took a list of the card droprates of all the False Gods then ranked them from highest droprate to lowest -- plus most-won card, just because. 10,000 runs for all of them.A few things:
False God Card Droprate Most Won Card Divine Glory 48.76 Morning Glory Decay 45.50 Fractal Octane 44.29 Unstable Gas Jezebel 43.33 Nymph's Tears Akebono 42.82 Massive Dragon Eternal Phoenix 41.83 Minor Phoenix Osiris 41.50 Pharaoh Hecate 41.40 Voodoo Doll Fire Queen 40.16 Feral Bond Gemini 39.14 Twin Universe Serket 38.41 Deathstalker Incarnate 37.91 Vampire Obliterator 37.86 Elite Shrieker Graviton 37.23 Graviton Firemaster Paradox 36.70 Improved Blessing/Elite Deja Vu (tie) Lionheart 36.69 Crusader Neptune 36.47 Shockwave Destiny 35.66 Fate Egg Ferox 35.39 Ray of Light Seism 33.57 Elite Graboid Dark Matter 33.23 Black Hole Chaos Lord 32.58 Supernova/Ray of Light (tie) Morte 31.97 Retrovirus Hermes 31.28 Lava Destroyer Elidnis 30.91 Forest Spectre Dream Catcher 30.88 Supernova Miracle 30.49 Elite Queen Scorpio 30.26 Pufferfish Rainbow 29.58 Electrum Hourglass
- 10k runs still isn't the most accurate, so take these with a grain of salt, but only a grain. Running multiple tests on the same False God, for example, gave a max of 1 percent difference either way, so these can be taken to be pretty accurate.
- Matches up with experience as well. For example any long-time veteran FG farmer can tell you Divine Glory and Decay have the best droprates, whereas Rainbow is the clear loser of the bunch (as if anyone needed another reason to skip him).
- Most won cards shouldn't be seen as anything other than a ballpark. While some (Pharaoh for Osiris and Graviton Firemaster for Graviton) were pretty obvious -- both approached 50% out of the cards won -- others, like Supernova for Dream Catcher, were pretty close to the "second place" cards and
couldwill be different for new tests.- I found two more cards that the XenoSim registers as "undefined" -- Crusader and Condor.
Don't match ... at all.
FG DarkWeaver Merged studies Sample size Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket58,63%
38,68%
41,26%
61,41%
44,74%
68,00%
37,58%
37,33%
56,25%
44,43%
50,92%
49,76%
46,88%
54,71%
39,26%
48,34%
59,72%
47,36%
37,75%
37,84%
47,07%
48,15%
59,71%
57,22%
48,19%
36,10%
36,54%
41,99%
48,29%56,86%
40,71%
38,40%
59,74%
43,54%
80,80%
34,02%
35,07%
43,42%
50,28%
51,94%
44,39%
45,88%
56,29%
30,99%
45,51%
54,13%
39,29%
37,37%
34,45%
41,14%
44,83%
54,74%
54,75%
52,16%
31,78%
37,21%
41,46%
42,92%204
140
125
154
294
125
97
211
76
177
206
223
85
167
71
334
109
252
281
209
333
203
137
179
324
107
129
164
219
Post by: Xenocidius on September 29, 2011, 06:51:49 am
For example, here's Divine Glory:
Runs: 100000
Upgraded spin: Yes
Cards won: 67720
Cards per game: 0.677
Droprate (%): 48.658
Extra electrum won: 83085551
Extra electrum per game: 830.86
Card | Won (total) | % of all cards won | Won (per game) |
| Burning Tower | 170 | 0.25 | 0.002 |
| Explosion | 21820 | 32.22 | 0.218 |
| Light Tower | 1082 | 1.60 | 0.011 |
| Morning Glory | 22349 | 33.00 | 0.223 |
| Improved Miracle | 6547 | 9.67 | 0.065 |
| Animate Weapon | 15752 | 23.26 | 0.158 |
Post by: Jangoo on September 29, 2011, 02:16:00 pm
So, what is droprate?
Post by: Xenocidius on September 29, 2011, 02:21:34 pm
Post by: rosutosefi on September 29, 2011, 02:43:52 pm
Droprate is the percentage of games in which you win at least one card.Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.
Post by: Xenocidius on September 29, 2011, 02:57:40 pm
Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.Well, my program calculates droprate as what I said previously, in lieu of a better word.
Post by: rosutosefi on September 29, 2011, 03:04:53 pm
But that means the probability of winning exactly 2 cards is multiplied by 2, and the probability of winning 3 is multiplied by 3. These are then added to the probability of winning exactly 1, so it's not the probability of winning at least one card. :)Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.Well, my program calculates droprate as what I said previously, in lieu of a better word.
Post by: Xenocidius on September 29, 2011, 03:12:58 pm
If you're suggesting the simulator calculates chance to win at least 1 card wrongly, then you would be mistaken.
Why: It checks each time to see whether it has won at least one card and if so adds to the variable containing that. I highly doubt it is wrong.
Post by: rosutosefi on September 30, 2011, 11:37:36 am
But this statistic is more useful, so meh, no point in arguing about it. :))
Post by: Xenocidius on September 30, 2011, 12:16:56 pm
Repeat 3 times:
*blah blah*
if a card was won, set won to true
At the end:
if won = true, drop += 1.
But anyway, Dark Weaver has informed me of a slight error in the code which makes the value of droprate somewhat inaccurate without a huge number of runs.
Since fixing it would slow it down even more, I've casually removed droprate. Enjoy the new faster speed. :)
Post by: rosutosefi on September 30, 2011, 12:24:20 pm
Post by: Djhopper :) on October 02, 2011, 03:16:59 pm
Post by: Xenocidius on October 02, 2011, 03:31:16 pm
Link is broken :(Sorry about that, fixed.
Post by: Djhopper :) on October 02, 2011, 06:22:17 pm
Link is broken :(Sorry about that, fixed.
Post by: OdinVanguard on December 12, 2013, 09:23:14 pm
I also really like the opening hand simulator too. It should prove very useful in fine tuning NPC draw rates as well.
Post by: theelkspeaks on February 18, 2014, 03:37:15 am