Elements Slot Machine Simulator

[Xenocidius]

Ah, thanks for that. Crusader and Condor should now be registered by the database.

And well done with the droprate table. I somewhat neglect droprate, instead preferring number of cards won per game, but it seems they are not the same; Decay is much lower on the scale of cards per game.

[Jangoo]

=O You used my nickname for the "XenoSim"! =D

Just out of curiosity, I took a list of the card droprates of all the False Gods then ranked them from highest droprate to lowest -- plus most-won card, just because. 10,000 runs for all of them.

False God	Card Droprate	Most Won Card
Divine Glory	48.76	Morning Glory
Decay	45.50	Fractal
Octane	44.29	Unstable Gas
Jezebel	43.33	Nymph's Tears
Akebono	42.82	Massive Dragon
Eternal Phoenix	41.83	Minor Phoenix
Osiris	41.50	Pharaoh
Hecate	41.40	Voodoo Doll
Fire Queen	40.16	Feral Bond
Gemini	39.14	Twin Universe
Serket	38.41	Deathstalker
Incarnate	37.91	Vampire
Obliterator	37.86	Elite Shrieker
Graviton	37.23	Graviton Firemaster
Paradox	36.70	Improved Blessing/Elite Deja Vu (tie)
Lionheart	36.69	Crusader
Neptune	36.47	Shockwave
Destiny	35.66	Fate Egg
Ferox	35.39	Ray of Light
Seism	33.57	Elite Graboid
Dark Matter	33.23	Black Hole
Chaos Lord	32.58	Supernova/Ray of Light (tie)
Morte	31.97	Retrovirus
Hermes	31.28	Lava Destroyer
Elidnis	30.91	Forest Spectre
Dream Catcher	30.88	Supernova
Miracle	30.49	Elite Queen
Scorpio	30.26	Pufferfish
Rainbow	29.58	Electrum Hourglass

A few things:

• 10k runs still isn't the most accurate, so take these with a grain of salt, but only a grain. Running multiple tests on the same False God, for example, gave a max of 1 percent difference either way, so these can be taken to be pretty accurate.
• Matches up with experience as well. For example any long-time veteran FG farmer can tell you Divine Glory and Decay have the best droprates, whereas Rainbow is the clear loser of the bunch (as if anyone needed another reason to skip him).
• Most won cards shouldn't be seen as anything other than a ballpark. While some (Pharaoh for Osiris and Graviton Firemaster for Graviton) were pretty obvious -- both approached 50% out of the cards won -- others, like Supernova for Dream Catcher, were pretty close to the "second place" cards and could will be different for new tests.
• I found two more cards that the XenoSim registers as "undefined" -- Crusader and Condor.

The numbers don't match DarkWeavers calculations which have been verified by empirical testing in over 13k games (against all gods that is):

FG	DarkWeaver	Merged studies	Sample size
Akebono Chaos Lord Dark Matter Decay Destiny Divine Glory Dream Catcher Elidnis Eternal Phoenix Ferox Fire Queen Gemini Graviton Hecate Hermes Incarnate Jezebel Lionheart Miracle Morte Neptune Obliterator Octane Osiris Paradox Rainbow Scorpio Seism Serket	58,63% 38,68% 41,26% 61,41% 44,74% 68,00% 37,58% 37,33% 56,25% 44,43% 50,92% 49,76% 46,88% 54,71% 39,26% 48,34% 59,72% 47,36% 37,75% 37,84% 47,07% 48,15% 59,71% 57,22% 48,19% 36,10% 36,54% 41,99% 48,29%	56,86% 40,71% 38,40% 59,74% 43,54% 80,80% 34,02% 35,07% 43,42% 50,28% 51,94% 44,39% 45,88% 56,29% 30,99% 45,51% 54,13% 39,29% 37,37% 34,45% 41,14% 44,83% 54,74% 54,75% 52,16% 31,78% 37,21% 41,46% 42,92%	204 140 125 154 294 125 97 211 76 177 206 223 85 167 71 334 109 252 281 209 333 203 137 179 324 107 129 164 219

Don't match ... at all.

[Xenocidius]

Droprate =/= Cards won per game. You'll find if you run a few of the FG decks through the simulator that the cards won per game will match up almost perfectly with Dark Weaver's stats.

For example, here's Divine Glory:

by Xenocidius

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink

Deck import code : [Select]

7dg 7dg 7dg 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k2 7k2 7k2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 8pq

Runs: 100000
Upgraded spin: Yes

Cards won: 67720
Cards per game: 0.677
Droprate (%): 48.658

Extra electrum won: 83085551
Extra electrum per game: 830.86

Card	Won (total)	% of all cards won	Won (per game)
Burning Tower	170	0.25	0.002
Explosion	21820	32.22	0.218
Light Tower	1082	1.60	0.011
Morning Glory	22349	33.00	0.223
Improved Miracle	6547	9.67	0.065
Animate Weapon	15752	23.26	0.158

[Jangoo]

So, what is droprate?

 

[Xenocidius]

Droprate is the percentage of games in which you win at least one card.

[rosutosefi]

Droprate is the percentage of games in which you win at least one card.

Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.

[Xenocidius]

Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.

Well, my program calculates droprate as what I said previously, in lieu of a better word.

[rosutosefi]

Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.

Well, my program calculates droprate as what I said previously, in lieu of a better word.

But that means the probability of winning exactly 2 cards is multiplied by 2, and the probability of winning 3 is multiplied by 3. These are then added to the probability of winning exactly 1, so it's not the probability of winning at least one card.

[Xenocidius]

Pardon?

If you're suggesting the simulator calculates chance to win at least 1 card wrongly, then you would be mistaken.

Why: It checks each time to see whether it has won at least one card and if so adds to the variable containing that. I highly doubt it is wrong.

[rosutosefi]

But it checks once every spin, for 3 spins, so if it wins 3 cards from a game then it adds three to the counter. It does not only calculate the chance of winning at least a card from the game, but it also takes into consideration the weight of two-card wins and three-card wins. So it's not "at least one card".

But this statistic is more useful, so meh, no point in arguing about it. 

[Xenocidius]

Here's how it works:

Repeat 3 times:
*blah blah*
if a card was won, set won to true

At the end:
if won = true, drop += 1.

But anyway, Dark Weaver has informed me of a slight error in the code which makes the value of droprate somewhat inaccurate without a huge number of runs.

Since fixing it would slow it down even more, I've casually removed droprate. Enjoy the new faster speed.

[rosutosefi]

So it's not like your original version? I ish coonfused.  ???