WARNING: LONG POST (Summary of the statistics are at the end of the post)
As I said before, I made another version of this deck and also made statistics which contained not only the Win/Loss data but also the typical events which were happened during the games. These give a more detailed insight about how the deck works in practice.
The version of the deck I used was the following:
1. The most common events basicly, why the deck loses (or wins); also the percentage of the event is given.
Bad draw (8%) this is not a "definite" factor, people tend to call a game a "bad draw" if things don't work out well. This contains all bad situations which are not among'st the events described later. Typically, silly starting hands and draws (eg. 1 Tower/Pendulum in the first 12 cards) or extreme lucky opponent hands (eg. 30+ incoming damage per turn at the 3rd turn), etc. Bad draws hinder all decks, so this is not a unique factor; especially since it's unsure that the game could have won if the bad draw hadn't occured. Even more, it should be decimated by the
Good draws (3%) which were excellent starting situations and lead to an easy victory
in all cases.
Momentum (6%) the worst enemy of the deck. If you have an Eternity out you can still Rewind the Momentum-ed creature but, it doesn't work against Chargers (it will reapper in the next turn) and Titans (you can't do anything about this).
Steal and Explosion (6%) another problem but, it's less fatal than the Momentum. First, the AI uses all the Control Cards
before you start to Shield or play a Hourglass or an Eternity. If you had enough Towers you might survive. Second, the AI
always targets Eternity first, Hourglasses next and Shields third. So, if you expect massive Permanent Control, try to play two (or three) of them in the same time (or, if you have plenty of Shields and need the Eternity, play the latter one a turn later). Making the AI abuse the PC cards is really, really important! (About 1,5% of the games were won because I was able to play lots of Permanents early.)
No Shield (6%) unfortunately, even if you have an Hourglass out you're unable to draw a Shield. Surprisingly many games were lost due to this. I have no idea how to lessen that 6%. Though, sometimes if you "gap the Shield Chain" in a turn when you can still survive, helps but still, this is a big problem with this deck.
Pulverizer/Shard of Focus/Butterfly Effect (4%) if any of the multiple Permanent Control cards appear early, you're doomed. Get used to it. In mid- and late-game you can still win, due to the fact I explained before.
Outheal (3,3%) Elidnis, Ferox and Fire Queen can simply outheal you (the healing exceeds the poison). The latest one is the worst offender since she takes out your Scorpions too.
Early Eternity (2,9%) as far as I can estimate, these games were won just because I drew an Eternity quickly. Compared to the previous version, having 2 Eternities helps a lot. I don't know whether a third one would boost or hinder the deck.
Lucky/Unlucky (23%) I call Lucky/Unlucky if the outcome was decided by sheer luck/unluck. Eg. managed to draw a Shield just before you were about to die or (inverted example), you got the Eternity right after the Shard of Focus appeared. I only mentioned this because you can't decide how a deck works out against a certain Fake God by lucky and unlucky events. In general, I had roughly the same amount of lucky and unlucky matches so, it doesn't change a lot. However, against a particular Fake God it greatly modified the statistics.
Poison (1,9%) Scorpion and Morte tends to out-poison you. (Against Serket, if you lose due to the Poison you were unable to draw a Shield). You can do nothing about this, but, it's not a major factor.
Miracle (1,8%) against Miracle, Morte, Divine Glory, Paradox and Rainbow. However, surprisingly few matches were lost due to the AIs Miracle(s).
Shielding (1,6%) only Bonewall and Dissipation Field hurts. The latter one rarely shows up before you can poison (2 games). Against Incarnate, you can still win sometimes if he plays a Bonewall before the poison (if you have an Eternity for damage). Against Morte this does not work.
No quanta (1,6%) the game was lost because the deck was short on a certain type of quanta. Since I used both Towers and Pendulums, I expected this an important event but, it occured surprisingly few times. Anyway, the main reason about using Towers and Pendulums is, that in many games it's possible the play the first sharded Scorpion earlier. (Plus, it helps in certain situations, eg. against Seism.) This event doesn't include the games when the opponent actively disrupts your quanta accumulation, eg. Decay's Pests.
Powerful Creature (1,5%) the game was lost because an unexpected Creature appeared. This goes mostly for Chaos Lord (though, eg. Destiny managed to get a Charger once and boosted it lots of times). 1,5% doesn't appear much but, I lost 6 times to Chaos Lord because he had a mutant with Steal or Destroy early. I'm not sure whether it's normal or I was unlucky.
No Scorpion/No Shard (1,11,4%) I was unable to draw a Scorpion in the first half of the deck. If my calculations were correct, the mathematical chance for this was about 2,3% (though, some games were lost before that amount of cards were drawn). However, it's not an important event, even some of these games were won.
Gameplay error (0,97%) self-explanatory; misclick a card, forgetting to play a Shield, etc. Sh-t happens. ^_^
The following cards (appearing in one or very few decks) has no singificant effects on the statistics:
Black Hole, Purify, Siphon Life, Liquid Shadow and any of the Nymphs.
2. About the statistics725 games were made, which means 25 against each Fake God in average.
The Total Games / Games Won data (see below by the certain Fake Gods) contains
every games.
On the other hand, the cathegories ignore certain matches since I tried to avoid certain "distortion factors". Eg. I ignored all the Lucky/Unlucky games, 50% of the Good/Bad draws etc. Also, I applied a Win by/Loss by data too (not shown here; I don't want to bother others with such details). +3 meant easy win, the AI had no chance, 3 stood for I had no chance. +2/2 were "normal" Win/Loss, while +1/1 were really close matches (usually 1 turn or draw and almost Won/Lost). I considered these too, eg. if there were much more +1s than 1s I reduced the Win Rate.
Games were quit
only if there was no mathematical chance left for winning. (Eg. Gemini made the 2nd 2 Momentumed Spider, I had 20 HP left with no Eternity out. I will lose regardless I draw an Eternity next.)
I know that this appears cheating. However, first of all, the raw data still shows every games. Besides, these are mere
predictions how the things would have been if I had made about 7500 games or so. On a long term, Luck/Bad Luck doesn't count and blissful/painful events are "spreaded" equally against the certain Fake Gods. Eg., against Neptune I had several silly games, lost a lot of times because I had no Shield in the first 12 (or even 18) cards, and even the successful games were seriously absurd (eg. no Scorpion in the first 24 cards). Against Graviton I had 5 Won but, only one of these were "normal" (I outrushed him by Poison), all the others were insane Lucky (eg. I had the Eternity out before he drew any Towers). Of course, these are only
predictions, maybe something which I consider absurd is quite probable in practice. But, for deciding these, one should perform zillions of complicated calculations (eg. What is the chance for playing a Sharded Scorpion before Morte plays a Bonewall? Mind the Quanta accumulation, the Hourglasses and the gameplay of the AI too!) Frankly, who has time for that?
3. Against the certain Fake Gods... the numbers show Games Played / Games Won; from best to worst opponent
See my previous post for more tips and tricks.VERY EASY The deck perfectly works against these Fake Gods; even if you're unlucky (eg. unable to draw a Shard) you can win in many cases.
1. Lionheart (36/35) This is the easiest (and one of the dullest) match, I'd suggest this deck as an Oracle Counter too. The only thing you should know: if you're short on Shields and Hourglasses don't play multiple Scorpions, his Rewinds can keep you off your Shields. He'll die due to his Hourglasses.
2. Destiny (27/23) Basicly, same as Lionheart. (Also a valid Oracle Counter.)
3. Neptune (21/13) Despite the bad statistics (detailed above) this one is a piece of cake. Rewind something in each turn to increase his Poison counter, since your Scorpions will be destroyed instantly. Quite a boring game anyway.
4. Miracle (25/18) Unless she starts out strongs (Dragons) and you have a bad draw, you'll win. No games were lost cause of her Miracles.
5. Serket (18/14) Shielding is a priority over the Scorpions. If you fail to draw any, you'll most probably lose quickly but, that rarely occurs (2 games in 18).
6. Paradox (14/11) Shield as late as you can since her damage output increases dramatically later. In very rare cases she clones your Scorpions. If this happens when you have no Shield out, you'll most probably lose. (Maybe she's only "Easy", too few games played.)
EASY An easy win in most cases.
7. Seism (35/25) Like Paradox, he's also "Easy or Very Easy". Still good stats despite some painful games (No Shield 3 times, Bad draw 3 times, other out of luck events 2 times). I've explained this one before, just one more trick: if you're approaching deckout, try playing unsharded Scorpions, he'll Rewind them and you can Rewind
his Creatures meanwhile. One of the most exciting games with this deck.
8. Elidnis (21/12) In theory you should have no problem (only 2 games were lost because she outhealed me). In practice, though her deck is quite unreliable, she can surprise you in many ways. Eg. Quintesscenced Ulitharid, clones your Scorpions, Pufferfish, etc. Keep your fingers crossed that you won't meet any of these surprises.
9. Incarnate (24/18) As I mentioned, sometimes you can still win even if he plays a Bonewall before your Scorpions. Poisoning is a priority above all!
MEDIUM You have reasonable chance, on the other hand, you can lose many times. In almost all cases, skillful gameplay is needed.
10. Gemini (29/14) Unknown, maybe "Easy", maybe a "worse Medium". Play Eternity as fast as you can. Strangely, against Gemini there were only 2 games when I had an Eternity in my starting hand (though, if my calculations are correct, there is a 37% chance for that!). Always Rewind something and never Shard a Scorpion multiple times because he will clone it.
11. Ferox (30/13) Even if it's considerably easier than with the previous version, it's still an annoying game; sometimes you'll waste plenty of time for a lost match. This game greatly depends on your and his draw.
12. Hekate (30/11) A complicated match which needs practice. Try to hold back your Permanents 'till you can play more of them in one turn. Bad draws hurt you a lot against her since she starts out fast with that Doll/Rage combo. Sometimes before you can play anything but Towers half of your HP is gone.
13. Decay (25/10) If he gets an Eclipse fast or he manages to take away more quanta than you can produce before you can poison him, you're doomed. In all other cases you have a good chance.
14. Osiris (25/10) If you plays Eternity before he plays a Shard of Focus, you'll most probably win, if she plays the Shard first, you'll most likely lose. Keep rewinding his Shard (once it appeared)! Not only because you don't want to get your Permanents destroyed. You can also sabotage his deck and more important: his Gravity quanta. If you can't, you can also lose cause of his Trebuchets. It's unsure whether he's "Medium" or "Hard", I don't know what's the chance for getting an Eternity before his Shard.
HARD Playing against these Fake Gods is never easy. However, sometimes, if you're lucky and skillful enough, you can still win.
15. Eternal Phoenix (19/6) In theory, I thought that this one was "Impossible". But, after all the additional calculations, Eternal Phoenix became the 15th easiest (and 15th hardest) Fake God. And
I don't know, why! Perhaps Fractal increases Nervetoxin fast. Perhaps if you play all Permanents you can protect your Shields. Still not enough explanation, bad draws (3 games), and quanta and Shield shortage (22 each) also occured against him (more times than against many other Fake Gods). Only 5 games were lost because he destroyed the valuable Permanents (mostly the Shields).
16. Hermes (27/9) He almost reaches the "Medium" cathegory. Plenty of Explosions but, due to his fat deck, sometimes your Permanents remain on board for a long time. Sometimes (poor AI?) he uses all the Explosions on your Towers. Greatly depends on his starting hand and Creatures.
17. Chaos Lord (20/7) As I mentioned, plenty of games were lost because he managed to produce a powerful mutant (eg. a Dragon with Steal). I'm not sure whether I'm unlucky or he has a great chance for this. Discord and Dissipation Field rarely turns the tide, even if I expected so before. Nevertheless, poison as fast as you can.
18. Morte (21/5) Scorpion is the top priority, if he plays a Bonewall before he's poisoned, everything is over. Still, you can die due to his Poison, or his Miracle.
19. Jezebel (23/5) Don't expect a lot, you'll lose cause of her Steals. Even worse: she doesn't only steals your Hourglasses and Eternity she can even
use them! But, there is something. If she starts stealing before you played the cards mentioned (and your Shields), she'll use the stolen Towers (Pendulums) for creating Nymphs. Though that 2 Nymphs do considerable damage, their abilities are not too dangerous. (Especially Ether; Invulnerability doesn't make a big difference since her board is cloaked all the time.) So, in many cases the most devastating Nymphs (Air Nymph is the worst possibility) don't show up at all.
20. Obliterator (25/6) Almost "Very Hard"; quit if the Pulverizer appears early. If not, you can still lose to the momentumed Creatures (these 2 cases covered 19 games). However, if you play an Eternity quick (which is the top priority) you can slow his deck down and outrush even the previous two things by the Nervetoxin.
VERY HARD Thin chance. If things go wrong, quit. Some of these matches don't worth the effort at all.
21. Akebono (24/4) Same cathegory and gameplay as Obliterator. At least you can take out the Shard (if you have the Eternity out) but, this is offset by the Chimera. Also, I found Akebono faster than Obliterator. Obviously, quit if a Shard appears before your Eternity.
22. Scorpio (24/4) In most cases, she'll poison you faster than you intoxicate her. Shield quickly, Rewind Physalias and keep your fingers crossed. Still, it always worths a try, games against Scorpion rarely last long.
23. Divine Glory (21/3) Your only chance if she doesn't draw a Fire Tower in early- or mid-game. Even in such cases you can lose cause of the plenty of Miracles. I don't recommend this game, even if you have a lucky start you can lose.
24. Fire Queen (24/3) In theory, the Eternity can slow her deck down. In practice, your Scorpions don't live long (massive Creature Control), so it's hard to increase her poison counter. She outhealed me even after a good start in 13 games. Quit if her amount of Bonds and Queens exceed 4. Even if not, this game is highly unrecommended: after a long, long fight she turns the tide by playing a few Bonds and Queens.
25. Rainbow (25/2) 5 games lost due to her Permanent Controls. But, even worse: 6 games cause of her Miracles! I'd say, simply quit: firstly, it's a waste of time, plus, it's hard to win any cards from Rainbow.
IMPOSSIBLE In one word: autoquit.
26. Graviton (34/5) Don't get fooled by the stats: they were merely lucky exceptions. You're no match for him.
27. Dark Matter (31/2) 18 games were lost cause of the Momentum
alone.
28. Dream Catcher (27/2) Butterfly Effect is far more effective the deck than Shard of Focus or Explosion. Don't bother.
29. Octane (20/0) Just look at the statistics. It tells everything.
4. SUMMARY Overall Statistics TL;DR version starts here
Base StatisticsGAMES PLAYED: 725
GAMES WON: 290
WIN RATE: 40%
NORMALIZED WIN RATE: 39,68% (Games would have won if the deck had faced every Fake Gods same times.)
CARDS WON: 139 (Estimated data, I didn't write this data during the first 200 games.)
Predicted StatisticsNORMALIZED WIN RATE EXCLUDING AUTOQUITS: 44,88% (No games against Impossible rated Fake Gods)
NORMALIZED WIN RATE EXCL. PREDICED AUTOQUITS 49,42% (The same as the previous but, excluding Divine Glory, Fire Queen and Rainbow)
ESTIMATED WIN RATE: appr. 44,24%
(It's a complicated guess; excluding all the Lucky/Unlucky games, appr. half of the Good/Bad draws and normalizing certain data, eg. in 725 games there should have been about 6 more games than there were in which there were no Scorpions in the first 18 cards.)
ESTIMATED WIN RATE EXCLUDING AUTOQUITS: 49,23% (the previous data and no games against Impossible Fake Gods)
4. For further examination If someone's interested in, might have a try...
Would a third Hourglass help?
Should the deck contain an Eletrocutor instead of an Eternity (or two)?
How could it work with 4 Shards and Scorpions (I don't recommend, the probability of getting draw with eg. no Scorpion in the first half of the deck is more than double)
Should the deck use a different mark?
Only Pendulums / Pendulums and one type of Towers / Only Towers?
Do the decks posted by others work better?
Is the quanta management okay (it seems so but who knows)?
– Would a single Lightning work against certain Fake Gods (eg. Akebono, Dream Catcher, Hermes etc.)?