I just noticed you estimated the cost of Ablaze at 3, and the cost of growth at 2. I can't understand this, since growth is strictly better than ablaze. A cost of 3 for both (as suggested in my previous post) seems fair to me : a lava golem will usally be taken down on the turn it is spawned, so the +hp part of growth really doesn't matter.
( Attack + Skill Value ) ( Resilience ) is somehow what I had in mind, even if I didn't put it like this. Right now I'm trying to find a good way to calculate resilience, but it's hard. Note that some skills (Burrow, Immortal, Poisonous, ...) should count toward resilience, *not* skill value. Momentum counts both toward resilience (because of Fire Shield and Thorn Carapace) and skill value.
EDIT: Wow ! I tried a formula and was amazed by how well it works with every vanilla creature ! First, the ideas behind the formula:
- The more HP a creature has, the less important it is to give it more hp. Therefore, resilience is not a linear function of hp's, but rather a logarithmic one.
- Many vanilla creatures are X/5 with a cost of X quantas, suggesting that resilience of 5hps creatures is 1. I thus tried the base-5 logarithm, but it was no good. This is because...
- All creatures (except 0hp creatures) have a "base resilience", because it's possible that the opponent will not have any creature control, making hp's uninmportant.
- In other words, resilience = (chance to survive despite CC) + (chance to survive because the opponent lacks CC) = logarithmic part + static part
And now, the (temporary) formula:
Resilience = (log5(hp)+1) / 2With only one adjustment to make: Life creatures get one free hp.
Here are the theoretical costs of all unupped vanilla creatures, using this formula:
Abomination: 5
Purple dragon: 10
Flesh Spider: 2.52, rounds up to 3 (not taking Web into account)
Mummy: 4.27, rounds to 4 (not taking it's passive into account)
Bone dragon: 10
Skeleton: .5, rounds to 1 (version 1.27 will boost it with a new ability, making it less UP)
Graviton mercenary: 3 =/= 4
Colossal dragon: 9.39, rounds to 10
Hematite golem: 4.23, rounds to 4
Gnome rider: .72, rounds to 1 (this one will generate quanta with next update)
Horned Frog: 2.15, rounds to 2
Cockatrice: 3.37, rounds to 3
Emerald Dragon: 10
Ash Eater: 1
Crimson Dragon: 10.10, rounds to 10
Blue Crawler: 2.52, rounds to 3
Ice Dragon: 9.51, rounds to 10
Photon: .5, rounds to 0
Golden Dragon: 12.15, rounds to 12
Dragonfly: 0.72, rounds to 1 (same as Gnome Rider)
Azure Dragon: 9.51, rounds to 10
Devonian Dragon: 10
Black Dragon: 10
Phase Spider: 2.86, rounds to 3 (not taking Web into account)
There's only one discrepancy : Graviton Mercenary. Now just look at card usage statistics: Graviton Mercenary is underused. Meaning that it is probably UP, which is what the formula suggests. The only non-rare creatures used less than Graviton Mercenary are Blue Crawler (also slightly UP according to the formula) and Hematite Golem (balanced, but overshadowed by the OP Graboid).
About upgraded creatures: using either -1 or -2 depending what we need to match the actual card cost isn't the good way to do. We could take inspiration from spells. Low-cost spells get a 1-quantum reduction to their cost when upgraded. High-cost spell get a 2-quanta reduction. I'll work on this later, time for dinner now