Would this affect permanents? If so, this has an interesting synergy with sundials, unstable gas (though this would require 3 elements), and a few other goodies. Also, can its ability be lobo'd?
Yes, and yes.
Unupped, yes; upped, no.
That sounds like a better path for the card to take as opposed to becoming cheaper on upgrade (I'm assuming people value better protection over speed of play.)
Card Updated:
Upped cost changed back to 3
, but only protects your cards.