The value of consistently placing +1 place is: 7/9/11/11/11 points.
The maximum difference in auction prices is: 10 (1 pt bid by a favored boss vs 10pt bid by another boss)
This difference means Brawl assumes that the average place for all brawlers in a role will be within 1 place.
I remain convinced that this math is suboptimal. Let's see what data we get from this Brawl to support or dash my doubt.
Brawl 2 stats
Brawl 3 stats
*My preliminary prediction is that the average point gap(from all 6 rounds but ignoring auction costs) in each role will be 21+(aka greater than twice the maximum auction gap)
Artist: 67-20=47
Card Designer: 56-27=29
Deckbuilder: 63-27=33
Forum Expert: 60-12=48
Off Topic: 62-33=29
Writer: 67-30-37
So the point gap ranged from 29 to 48 over the auctioned roles.
1) Is it ok for the point gap to dwarf the auction by at least a 3:1 ratio?
2) Would it be better if the point gap was closer to the auction spread?
3) How would you make these spreads closer? Would increasing the auction cap work?
Given that replacements are people who were either less desirable than the others or like me posted a topic in the final hours of the auction, charging average price seems harsh. Charging at all seems harsh given how little control the boss has on if IRL takes one of their members
4) How should replacements be handled?
My first comment stems from the Brawl Points Earned gap calculations. How have you accounted for roles incurring one or more "no submission" results during Brawl?
(NOTE: These responses may or may not contain opinion which should be taken as such - my opinions)
A1) If it was a proven trend and bosses were wise to it then no this 3:1 ratio would probably not be acceptable (3:1 claim subject to review in response to overall comment, above). It would mean every boss should bid max on the players likely to top that role. There would, however, still be the matter of "how do you know which Brawl participant is going to prove to EARN that 3:1 point gap ratio"?
A2) There may be an optimum balance. The trick is knowing the typical points-earned gap. Also, consideration is needed for the idea that the Auction is but one phase of the event and a minority of the emphasis, at that. Hence some unbalance between auction cost/spread and points-earned/spread is expected or even desired. Right?
A3) Increasing the auction cap would serve to shrink the spreads. The only other way (is it the only other way?) would be to "reduce the points earned cap" -- i.e. adjusting the value of the finishing places in each round. I feel this latter idea would be a tough sell for this event...
A4) Truthfully, my opinion on replacement I think is going to be a minority opinion. However, even minority opinion has value and a place. So here it is...
Replacements should not be allowed. There, I typed it. I have put it in black and white. My opinion is that replacements should not be allowed. I have no proof or irrefutable evidence to support this opinion. I do have my own reasons and thoughts behind feeling that way (below). Basically, auction loses a lot of the value and its role in the event when replacements are "plain ol' free for all whoever wants a team that a team wants them is in" (I do realize other systems could be used, but a free system is the one I am opposing).
A4.1 - Auction becomes even more important when a boss knows "no replacements" and that a dud bid could be a big blow to their chances in the event.
A4.2 - It does create a
POSSIBILITY for abuse of the replacement system (depends on the system implemented) whereby a boss can convince forum members they would really like on their team to abstain from auction then setup dummy "newbie" accounts that then mysteriously (or even non-mysteriously) dropout with the desired member suddenly ready to take that place. For FREE!
A4.3a - I was a boss in Brawl 3. I drafted TWO total duds that were not heard from between submitting application for Brawl and the end of the event. There was definitely "pain" felt by the team from my auction mistakes taking the two that never showed up. In the heat of that event, I was really wanting replacements but was turned down by the few I approached about joining the team. Therefore, I was able to experience having no-shows AND not getting replacements. Guess what? It never felt unfair or like it was taking away from the event. It DID teach me the value in researching or knowing my auction picks before bidding!
A4.3b - I was a role player in Brawl 4. I was drafted by d2d into a team of members I strongly felt would remain active -- the couple new faces (to me) seemed well-known-ish around the forum. The auction price paid by dawn was somewhat high, relatively, but it resulted in a strong team that were all very active (given the alternative of what level a no-show produces). It seared into my mind the extreme value a boss should place on their auction phase.
