Round 14 - Transmute?

[Afdarenty]

I'm making a post about this partly because it will be faster than discussion in team chat, and partly because it gives us the opportunity to give more detailed responses.

The question is: How much can we transmute this round?

Option 1
We limit ourselves to transmuting zero times or once. This means that if we go 1 win, 2 loss this round and lose to a mono deck we shall have 50 cards left. Just enough to take us into next round. This option has problems that I shall discuss later.

Option 2
We transmute as often as we want to (two times or more). This means that if we go 1 win, 2 loss this round and lose to a mono deck we're out. If we go 1-2 and don't lose to a mono, we stay in.

From conversations in team chat it seems most of you want to go with Option 1. I disagree with that choice. The Gravity salvage could be used to build a SoFo/GPull splash, but the spare Darkness cards don't help us at all. Below is a table showing the possible outcomes of this Round, and the impact this has on future rounds.

Win/Loss this Round	Effect this has on future rounds
3-0	We play Darkness 3 times again next round, only they have fewer options.
2-1, no loss to Mono.	If we transmute 1 or more times, we play Darkness 2 times Round 16. If we don't transmute, we play Darkness 3 times Round 16. We can afford to go 1-1 Round 16. We cannot afford to go 1-2 Round 16. Large incentive to transmute at least one.
2-1, loss to Mono.	We play Darkness 2 times next round. We can afford to go 1-1 Round 16.
1-2, no loss to Mono.	We play Darkness 2 times next round. We have to go 2-0 Round 16, 2-0 Round 17, 2-1 Round 18.
1-2, loss to mono.	If we transmute 0 or 1 times, we play Darkness twice. If we transmute 2 times or more, we're out. If we stay in, we would have to go 2-0 Round 16, 2-0 Round 17, 2-0 Round 18 and then 2-1 Round 19.
0-3	We're out.

I think we all agree that Option 2 is better if we go 2-1 or better.

If we go 1-2 this round I think it will be almost impossible to achieve the 100% winrate needed to stay alive for the next 2 or 3 rounds.

My opinion is that we should assume we go 2-1 or better this round, as going 1-2 almost always results in us going out of War. If we go 2-1 or better, Option 2 seems the best choice. Therefore, I think we should go with Option 2.

Do you agree or disagree?

[Newbiecake]

I think we should not transmute, go 1-2, and just hope that Aether loses once this round, then they'll be out and we'll secure second place.

[xn0ize]

Option 2, we either try to win or just surrender.

[mrpaper]

Option 1:

One thing the table doesn't say is aether is great even with a thin vault so they could very well beat darkness twice this round hence weaken them a lot if we managed to beat em as well (even if only once).  So us surviving this round is key to me as we will be much closer to even ground next round if darkness has a bad round.  Also, we won't have to send a suicide deck, so all we can send might be a good (or lucky) guess.  And Adding more air cards would help have more stable decks (more then a bit??)  but nothing that darkness can't see coming and try to counter already.  ****Also, www said in chat last week that war won't last more then 16 rounds if needed so next round will be an armaggedon of some sort so no need to see the bad side of needed to go 2-0 a few rounds in a row!